Breeders Crown Mandatory Payout Pick 5 Analysis

Perhaps the best opportunity on a Breeders Crown card at The Downs at Pocono that is full of great wagering possibilities is the $20,238 mandatory payout Rainbow Pick 5. Guaranteed at $75,000, the pool should eclipse that total, but if somehow it doesn’t or only just passes that plateau, the value in this bet will be tremendous.

Race 10 $270,000 Breeders Crown Mare Pace

(2) SHARTIN has dominated this division the entire year and it is hard to make a serious case for her competitors.

Race 11 $500,000 Breeders Crown 3YO Filly Trot

There are four upper-echelon fillies in this race which are hard to separate in terms of ability. When you add form and post position into the equation, it becomes easier to drop one (Manchego) off the list. (7) PHAETOSIVE gets a major driver change this week to George Brennan. While that plays into the decision to make her the top pick, it has been her management this year. This race has been the goal for months and you have to think she’ll be firing on all cylinders. (1) PLUNGE BLUE CHIP has only one bad race in recent history and that came in the second heat of the Filly Futurity with very hot temperatures. She should be in prime position from the inside. (3) ATLANTA deserves plenty of respect but should be odds-on in this spot. I’m also worried that she’ll be pushed hard on the lead.

Race 12 $530,000 Breeders Crown 3YO Colt Pace

Handicapping will only get you so far in this wide-open race. (8) LATHER UP is likely the best horse, but who knows if Montrell Teague can get him to settle down enough early to avoid any antics. That leads me to (3) SPRINGSTEEN. He has charged home in each of his last two starts with no shot at victory and seems to have finally turned the corner for Team Allard, who performs very well over this track. I also have huge respect for the talent of (1) DORSODURO HANOVER and (6) AMERICAN HISTORY. The former is ultra-consistent and the latter has the fastest win time of any 3-year-old in 2018. Also on my ticket are (2) THIS IS THE PLAN, who woke up in a big way for new trainer Ron Burke, and (4) THINKBIG DREAMBIG, who may just find himself on the lead if Lather Up has issues.

Race 13 $250,000 Breeders Crown Mare Trot

This is another race with many ways to go. (8) ARIANA G is the one to beat, but her task will be tough with the outside post. I’m intrigued by (4) CAPRICE HILL. She had some road trouble in her elimination but raced very well two starts back, her first for the Chris Oakes barn. She has upset potential at a big price. (1) BROADWAY DONNA, (2) BARN BELLA, (5) EMOTICON HANOVER and (6) CELEBRITY RUTH all make the cut for this Pick 5.

Race 14 $430,000 Breeders Crown Open Pace

(3) MCWICKED has enjoyed a great season and at this point deserves divisional honors, but I just don’t see this as a good spot for him and I’m certainly not convinced that he is heads and tails above (2) LAZARUS or (6) DONTTELLMEAGAIN. McWicked is either going to be first- or second-over and I don’t see him grinding by either of the aforementioned contenders. Between the other two, my nod goes to Donttellmeagain. He has been expertly managed by Jim King Jr and has proven to be every bit as fast as his rivals. Plus he’ll be the best price of the three.