ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

NOBODY MOVE a rare claim for Mott cutting back and cutting in half for his first start since July as one of several in the field looking to rebound from a subpar effort, though he was going farther than he wants to go in that last one; tough here with his good race and he likes a wet track, should the forecast for Saturday be correct. LEX VEGAS hasn’t run a particularly competitive race in a while, even while working his way down the ladder, but he has speed from a good post and he will be making his first start for a trainer who has good numbers in this situation from a small sample (3 for his last 7 off the trainer change with claimers in dirt sprints, $4.89 ROI ). TOO HOT TO EVEN SPEAK hasn’t run his best race in his first two starts for this barn, though those races are separated by a layoff; fits here for a trainer who has been having an excellent meet.

SECOND RACE

STAY FOND will be hard to beat in this spot if we are off the turf, as she has run all of the fast races in this field on the main track, handles a wet track, and gets a trainer change to Linda Rice. On turf, FAST TRACK KATHERN was impressive defeating claimers two starts back while overcoming a bit a of a trip over yielding ground, and she acquitted herself well when moved up into a much tougher spot last time. CLASSIC LADY closed down a good setup with a terrific ride to break her maiden in her turf debut back in June, then ran an even better race vs. a good field in her next start at Saratoga; raced on the outside all the way and was outkicked by a couple of better horses at this level last time.

THIRD RACE

EVAN’S NICE NOW worked her way into contention from off the pace going longer on turf last time, before faltering in the final furlong; moves back to dirt, where she chased in a good field on debut before getting in a bit tight on the rail and weakening late. AWESOME ALANA and FOREVER CHANGED debuting in the same race last month where they were wired by Sadie Lady. AWESOME ALANA took all the money that day but wound up getting out-paced early before coming wide and putting in a game run down the outside in the stretch; appeared to need that one and may prove to be much tougher second time around. FOREVER CHANGED didn’t go aggressively in that field one and wound up in behind the Sadie Lady’s pace, then got shut off on the rail in the stretch losing her best chance; Lasix on for her second start. DIRTY BIRD a stablemate of EVAN’S NICE NOW making her debut in this spot and she has a nice pedigree for a trainer who is excellent with first time starters.

FOURTH RACE

TILL THEN has a turf pedigree but is entered MTO as a maiden in the $100k Awad, and he figures tough on the main track if building upon his career debut where she made a nice appearance pre-race before going out to flash good speed before just getting run down late. A THREAD OF BLUE broke his maiden on the front end in an off the turf race last time; ran well in his turf debut two starts back when second best to Current, who came back to win the Grade 3 Bourbon in his next start. EMPIRE OF WAR wasn’t much in two starts on the main track but Declaration of War colt improved when moved to turf last time to wire a field with an improved figure; got an easy lead in that spot and was riding the stronger inside paths all the way without facing a serious challenge.

FIFTH RACE

OUR CIRCLE OF LOVE has settled for second-best in all four starts to date, two of them as an oddson favorite, but she has also run well enough in

all of them to beat this field; can’t take a short price on her with a ton of confidence but this looks like the right spot if she’s going to break through.

BEST IN THE BUSINESS making her first start since finishing a no threat 4th to stakes winner and Grade 1 Test 4th place finisher Alter Moon in her debut back in January; $460k 2yo purchase has upside for top connections. SCIENCE FICTION earned a 73 Beyer in her second career start then hit the board in her next five starts without winning; gets a positive trainer change for her return to dirt after just missing with a 71 Beyer when last seen in June.

SIXTH RACE

BRATTATA appeared to regress when cut back to sprint last time in the Coronation Cup, but that was a race where she had no real chance from last in a race that was run at a slow pace, and she was similarly compromised by pace dynamics two starts back in a race that was slow early and fast late; has burned her share of money but has also been genuinely unlucky at times and she was effective sprinting early in her career. TRANSACTION TAX ran back to back strong races at a flat mile over the summer before going off form in her last three starts; cuts back with speed for this for a trainer who keeps sending out live horses, often at prices. ELOWEASEL got the right trip and ride to break through with an overdue win three starts back, then didn’t appear to love the off going in her next start when failing to make a run; seems unlikely to get the firmer turf she prefers on Saturday, but she was a little better last time over yielding ground.

SEVENTH RACE

ITGOT GRANDMA has a pedigree to go longer as a half to a pair of graded stakes-winning routers but he has been training forwardly for his debut and goes out for a trainer who has a good record with 2yo firsters in dirt sprints (6 for his last 24, 25%, $2.43 ROI). BERNIN’ THRU GOLD debuted back in June and was vanned off after chasing wide and just missing 2nd on the wire; don’t think that was the strongest field in the world, though runnerup Bankit did just win a NY-bred stakes race last weekend. INCLUNATION debuts for Rudy, who is underrated with his first time starters, and he is from a dam who was a fast, stakes-winning sprinter as well as being a sister to a pair of Grade 1 winners.

EIGHTH RACE

ROBIN HOOD is too slow on the way in but he is not facing the strongest field of 3yo turf horses in the English Channel and he is improving at the right time following an easy win on synthetic last time; faced a good horse in stablemate Nakamura making his seasonal debut off the layoff and was racing on late, then outfinished a good older horse in Winter Union to break his maiden in his next start. SAND DANCER used his speed to grab early control of the Grade 2 Hill Prince last time and rode the fresh inside paths until the stretch, where he proved to be no match for Have At It coming through on his inside and just held on for 2nd; underrated 3yo should be using his speed from the inside. THERAPIST didn’t fire after a wide trip in the Saranac last time but he had run plenty of races prior to that which would make him tough to beat in this field; 3 for 3 over Belmont turf and 3 for 4 at this distance, all of them in stakes races.

NINTH RACE

COAL FRONT has much to overcome as he starts back from an extended layoff in a graded stakes going a demanding distance, while also facing the prospect of having to handle a wet track for the first time, but he has landed in a Bold Ruler that didn’t come up all that strong and figures tough if returning in his 3yo form for Pletcher, who excels off of long nd layoffs like this (past five years, year+ layoff, dirt sprints: 9 for 18, 50%, $3.52 ROI). TRUE TIMBER earned a career-best figure two back when dueling down subsequent Grade 2 winner Patternrecognition and he backed that race up well last time when closing down a modest pace in the late stages; steps up in form. NO DOZING was bumped at the start of the Kelso last time, before moving forward into a nice trip and taking a shot at the winner on the lead and getting turned away; had a bit of a trip in the Grade 1 Forego two starts back as a follow up to his top figure win off the layoff.

TENTH RACE

MY VICTORIA ROSE dropping for the first time after pacing some much better horses in his last two starts on turf following the layoff; handled dirt well enough in her career debut despite racing greenly if we are off. IRIDESCENT MORN dropping for her first start off the long layoff and picks up the leading rider while adding blinkers; had a rough start in her debut then showed a little speed on dirt in her next start before going to the sidelines. YOU MAKE MEBLUSH has been trying to get to turf to no avail recently for a dangerous trainer, and may not get this one to go either; turns back a bit after settling for second-best in each of her last four starts.