ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, THOMOND PARK

FIRST RACE

SCORCHED EARTH held on for third after chasing a runaway winner in a race she probably needed. Easy to imagine her moving forward in her second start back. TOUCHET couldn’t quite catch the speed in another good effort here and could improve in her first start for Dobles who since 2016 has a 21% strike rate and $2.73 ROI with claimed horses running back the first time. R LUCKY DICE won’t mind the move back to dirt and could be dangerous if he can get in the mix early like he did in is blowout maiden win.

SECOND RACE

Not sure why she was gone so long but SWEET ABDICATION was making just her first start of the year when she finished second at this level Oct. 7. She is a bounce candidate, but she could also take a big step forward for a trainer who has strong numbers with horses making their second start following a lengthy layoff. HANNAH CATHERINE seems to like it here, won’t mind the move back to turf, and it is encouraging to see Lopez take the call. VIBRANT SPIRIT drops to a new low following a couple of decent efforts in $16K conditional claimers across town. She also has good tactical speed and should get a nice trip from a forward position.

THIRD RACE

IL FARAONE has certainly improved in his last two starts and a repeat of his runner-up finish in a two-turn mile at this level here Oct. 3 would probably be good enough. The only other time he went around two turns on dirt he won so this might be what he really wants to do. JUDITH’S SUNSET is also on the improve. He just missed at a huge price to next-out winner Gran Chef two back and finished a clear third to the top pick in his latest outing. MIDNIGHTONBROADWAY is the wild card. His romp in a $6,250 n2L easily wins this but he didn’t run a jump in his next race and this will be his first start since Feb. 22. Nice work on Oct. 15 but since 2014 the barn is 0 for 4 with horses coming back from a layoff of 180 days or more. Tough call.

FOURTH RACE

BRANDY’S GIRL won the last time she didn’t run in a stakes race and she ran like a horse that needed a race when she finished fifth in the $75K Tamiami won by 15-time winner Pay Any Price who is on a roll with four-straight stakes wins. She is back with her own sex in an easier spot and she could be tough to handle if she takes the expected move forward in her second start back. TOUCH OF BLING has been freshened following a couple of dull efforts at Saratoga and Belterra and is capable of winning this if she brings her best stuff. She also has enough speed to take advantage of her inside post. SIERRA ALEONE will need to improve following her sharp win over easier but that isn’t impossible for a lightly-raced 3-year-old

FIFTH RACE

In an impossible race we’ll go with OUTSIDE LOOKIN IN who is taking a big drop while coming off a long layoff. If he comes back as good as he left, a third in a $25K maiden claimer washed off the lawn that produced three next-out winners, he’s probably the winner. WHY GOD is a bit questionable taking the big drop, but he is by a Belmont winner and is a half to three route winners so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him run a big race going around two turns for the first time. LA LEYENDA is the most consistent and probably would have finished in front of LITTLE TODD with a clean trip last time.

SIXTH RACE

DIPLOMATIC SHAFT followed up his strong effort in a key $10K starter at Kentucky Downs with a win in a conditional claimer in Indiana and seems reasonably spotted in this $8K open claimer. He should also get a nice trip from a forward position

and note the strong numbers Jaramillo has riding for Maker. TROUBLE IN PHOENIX just missed at his level in his first try over this course and should be heard from late. No wins going this far but he does own the best Beyer at the distance. DI MAESTRO has two wins from three starts here and he sure looked good winning an $8K n3L going this distance in his first start at the current meet.

SEVENTH RACE

UNIVERSAL PAYDAY ran good races but ran into a couple of tough ones in his first two starts, especially Maximus Mischief who earned a 98 Beyer for his easy win in a first-level allowance race at Parx on Oct. 20. Payday has had a couple of decent interim works and could be sitting on a big effort in his first start with Florida-breds. RETURNTHESTAR got bounced around at the start, and after trailing the field he finished full of run to get up for third in an improved effort in his second start. DR. ALLDAY attracts Lopez and has been working well for a trainer who can have them ready to roll first time. LUCKY RUNS NORTH is eligible to improve off an encouraging debut.

EIGHTH RACE

MOLLY CORBIN showed some promise when she finished second after going very wide on the turn in her debut on Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs and being a half to two Group 1 turf winners, including $1.38 million Peeping Fawn, she could take a big step forward with the surface switch. BIG TINA should move forward and will appreciate the easier company following a decent effort in the $75K Our Dear Peggy. She drew a tough post, though. MATZO BELLA ran a big race in her debut at Saratoga and might not have cared for a track rated “good” in her race here. She has speed and should get a nice trip from a forward position.

NINTH RACE

INDIAN SCOUT returned to form with a sharp win in his first start here and should get a similar trip in this spot. He is capable of stringing good races together and he just might love it here. W W

CONCERTO was coming of a layoff when he took them a long way in his first race over this surface. He should be tighter for this and the slightly shorter distance won’t hurt. BROOKSIDE doesn’t want to go this far but he is trending in the right direction and he does like it here. He could spice up the exotics with the right kind of trip.

TENTH RACE

THOMOND PARK just missed in his debut going slightly longer in Delaware and being a half-brother to Grade 1 winner Birdonawire his future could be bright. MEGA BUCKS took a big step forward when he stretched out to this distance in his second start and has worked well in the interim. LUCKY MIKE has been working like he can run a bit and since 2016 Kurtinecz is 3 for 8 and has a $18.97 strike rate with first-time starting juveniles. Plus, all three winners were running on turf and two were going around two turns. No winning sibs to report but his dam won her debut at two. CURIOSO moves inside where he should get a nice trip with Lopez picking up the mount. 21001 NW 27th Avenue Miami, FL 33056 (305) 625-1311 Main track: One Mile, oval. Distance from last turn to finish line: 990 Feet. Turf course: Seven Furlongs.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 17% ■ Pick 5, Super Hi 5: 15% ■ Double, Exacta, Bet 3, Pick 4,

Rainbow 6, Ultimate 8: 20% ■ Trifecta, Superfecta: 26% ■ Pick 10: 10%