ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, LEOFRIC

FIRST RACE

Dropping in class and exiting sprints, 6-1 shot DYLAN DID IT should be more forwardly placed in this two-turn mile - she will likely be among the three leaders into the first turn. That should serve her well in a race that seems relatively short of pace. Pedigree suggests she can get the distance. ESTRELA CADENTE just missed when second, beaten a neck, when racing against somewhat richer on dirt at Indiana Downs. In addition to that runner-up finish, she has a win on dirt, coming in the slop. Both of those were in depleted off-theturf contests. She finished last of five in a regular dirt race back in June, though against far better allowance foes. TIZ LITTLE BULL and UNDIVIDED bring the class to contend, but are winless on dirt, having shown an apparent preference for grass racing. Maybe against today’s easier company they can contend on the Keeneland main track.

SECOND RACE

Expecting improvement second out from BIRD TRAFFIC, who passed tired horses in her debut at Ellis Park to run eighth of 11 in a straight maiden race. Steady works since at Skylight Training Center in Oldham County for trainer Ian Wilkes, who drops her to the maiden $30,000 level. KIMBERLEY DREAM is a threat at her 12-1 odds, having flashed speed in her last two starts and now facing easier over a shorter trip. ALMYRA broke poorly and was outrun in her debut against maiden special weight foes at Churchill, and could move forward. She lands Jose Ortiz for a barn that has favorable recent stats with the maiden special to maiden claiming drop.

THIRD RACE

TAPSOLUTE is short of speed, a negative on the Keeneland main track, but others in this $30,000 nonwinners-of-three claimer appear to have even larger drawbacks. Down from $50,000 company after a couple fourths at Saratoga, he acts like the current class. QUIET DUDE, another late runner, just went through the motions in twice finishing fifth in short allowance fields this summer at Indiana Grand in sprints. Maybe a change in scenery can get him cycling back into better form. This is the third start of his current form cycle, and he gets more ground. Fellow allowance plunger SEKONDI possesses more tactical speed than either of the top two, though he has not been as successful on dirt (10-0-1-2) as he has been on turf (13-2-1-2). FULKERSON also appears to have the speed to be in the early mix, though he doesn’t seem as classy as others do.

FOURTH RACE

JO JO AIR has twice faded to go unplaced in two starts, though in difficult company. She debuted with a fourth to eventual Jessamine winner Concrete Rose at Saratoga, and then raced here in the Indian Summer Stakes and after chasing furious splits threw in the towel to be 12th. Now back to the maiden ranks, though facing males. Her primary foes appear to be first timers BOURBON IN MAY and PHILOSOPHY. Both start for winning first-out stables and have exciting pedigrees. BOURBON IN MAY is by More Than Ready out of a stakes-winning dam, and PHILOSOPHY, a son of speed sire Speightstown, is related to four graded winners, including Grade 1 types Visionaire and Tara’s Tango.

FIFTH RACE

OURBESTFRIEND D L is a value play at 8-1 odds in the fifth, having run competitively in all three of his dirt starts, including when third here at Keeneland Oct. 13. A tad discouraged that he has not been able to close the deal late in his races but the price is right to take the chance. TAPIZARS SECRET set a blistering pace in his only race at Saratoga before yielding to be second - a performance that

will likely result in him starting as the favorite.

READY AND RICH has been second five times in six starts and third another time. He seemed on his way to victory last time when moving sweetly in midstretch, only to tire over the final furlong and lose by a head going seven eighths. Shorter distance may benefit him. Not having the experience of the top three, but training quickly is SO ALIVE, a first timer from Pletcher’s barn that also merits attention.

SIXTH RACE

MISCHIEVIOUS LASS may hold a class advantage in this $20,000 claimer on the drop from a $30,000 N2L race in which she ran a close third as part of a bunched group. Plenty of pace to set up her rally. CASTLE RIDGE threw down hot splits and just kept on chugging to break her maiden in fast time on the Oct. 5 card - running over a second faster than MISCHIEVIOUS LASS did in her thirdplace finish an hour later. CASTLE RIDGE looks tough with a repeat performance, but that effort was so far better than her two prior starts that one has to think about regression. KANTASTIC, on the board in seven straight races, may be overlooked a bit, coming off races in Chicago on Polytrack. Her fastest races have come on the synthetic, but she has taken to dirt racing, too.

SEVENTH RACE

GO AWAY, by Scat Daddy and a half to multiple Grade 2 winner D’ Funnybone, was one of the more striking maiden winners of the Ellis Park meet, romping at first asking on turf July 6. He did not breeze for a while after that race, but has trained forwardly for his return at Keeneland, outworking his company in an Oct. 20 drill most recently. JUNKANOO won on debut over a yielding course at Belmont Sept. 22, kicking on powerfully in a race with slow splits. With a threat of rain on Friday and Saturday in Lexington, he could catch give in the ground again. It would have to pour for Keeneland to take the closing-day races off the grass, but if that somehow happened, STAGE LEFT would become one of this race’s leading prospects. He won a 4 1/2-furlong race in fast time in the spring over a muddy Keeneland strip. Third and seventh in a couple routes since.

EIGHTH RACE

AMIRAL was an eye-catching debut winner at Churchill, overcoming a slow start to win going away over this seven-furlong distance. Quick works suggest the potential for an even better race on the hike into an allowance. SILVER DUST has been regular factor in first-level allowances such as this one while often settling for pieces. Connections try another equipment change - removing blinkers after adding them for the last two - in an effort to get him over the hump. MAC JAGGER, meanwhile, adds the shades. He shows steadily increasing speed figures and seems a candidate to improve if able to break better than he has at times over his three-race career. Trainer Brian Lynch gave him a quick half-mile breeze from the gate Oct. 20.

NINTH RACE

Graded winner LEOFRIC gave a good account in the Woodward this summer at Saratoga, holding third after contesting the pace. While the two that beat him are going in Nov. 3 Breeders’ Cup Classic, he lands in an attractive spot in the Fayette. A winner of six of nine races in 2017-2018, he has the speed to get a fine trip sitting first or second in a race that should unfold with a moderate or slow pace. HOFBURG is more of a household name than the top choice, having raced in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont this year, starts in which he was seventh and third, respectively. He did not run to his potential when fourth in the Pennsylvania Derby in his latest, but has since trained well, suggesting a better race is on the way. First time against older horses. RATED R SUPERSTAR does not always produce his best but is dangerous when he is on his game. He won the Ben Ali over this track with a devastating rally in the spring.

TENTH RACE

Time for the last race of the fall meet, a secondlevel allowance on turf...I REMEMBER MAMA, on the board in all six of her starts, figures to take this race if she can replicate the performance she put forth in grabbing second in the One Dreamer Stakes at Kentucky Downs Sept. 1. That day she lost by just a half-length to graded winner On Leave. No published works at press time, but don’t read too much into that - works at Skylight Training Center, where trainer Tommy Drury is based, can go unpublished at times. The streaking ENGLISH DANCER has won three straight, though she is moving up in class, not down. She is proven under wet conditions, on the turf and on dirt. ESQUISSE never fired over yielding ground in stakes company at Laurel last out. She has raced in three allowances since coming to the U.S. starts that resulted in a second and two thirds.