ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, INVIGOROUS

FIRST RACE

EXPECT A KITTEN has raced under starter-allowance conditions in six trips to post since being claimed, but drop here is only to the $16K tag for which she was taken by these connections. Consistently competitive at the higher levels and stayed in off-turf start last time presumably to get in comeback run following two-month break that would move her forward in subsequent start - this one. BODEGA BAY won her most recent turf race and ran well enough to back on dirt racing for this tag to suggest she could contend on either surface despite an outside draw that will be worse in a two-turn grass race than one-turn dirt mile, if it comes to that. LADY JANE pulled up in a jumps race last time and eased on dirt two back, but her flat turf form fits this spot about as well as anyone’s.

SECOND RACE

Main-track-only ENTERPRISE VALUE could be a bounce candidate returning on relatively short rest after one of her better races, and the move from an N1X allowance win into a $20K claimer strongly suggests her upside is strictly limited, but she could regress a touch and still be a major player if the race is moved to dirt. MISTY ON POINTE and SUMMER FROCK are difficult to separate but rate them slightly above a few others in a very tough race. MOP come through with wins the previous two times her connections ran her for a tag. Frock similarly has always been competitive at or about this class level. With both horses, though, there are less-than-steady workout and racing patterns that give a little pause.

THIRD RACE

RIDGEMONT HIGH’s connections figuratively throw up their hands and drop the horse from $12.5K last out, his previous low tag, all the way to $5K here. 0-7 with less than $5K in earnings during 2018 so it makes sense to get very aggressive with horse that hasn’t won since second career start about 13 months ago. Just needs to come close to the recent performance level to rate a very strong chance. The drop from RH is less concerning than that given MOXIE, who was claimed for $16K last time and runs back for less than a third of that price. Still suspect he produces a contending showing. GFOUR - and the others, too — need the top two to falter to get into win contention.

FOURTH RACE

Once-started DESTINY OVER FATE’s speed figure from win doesn’t stack up against the shorter prices here, but keep in mind that came July 13, and nearly four months - the time since she last raced - is a really long period of development for a 2yo. Won despite racing green and appears to be working with verve for second start. $150K 2yo auction buy very expensive for the pedigree. Should be more to come at a price. OUR SUPER FREAK has three races worth of experience now and might be the one of the horses with obvious pace to be willing to rate a touch. Would be more confident in her doing that than debut winner MUSIC OF LIFE, who just gunned to the front in her DEL score.

FIFTH RACE

Main track only DANZ A REBEL was decent in debut and several lengths better in second start when chasing favored winner. Only sprinted so far but on pedigree he should get this one-turn mile. GEARHEAD dropped out several lengths behind a very slow pace, then found trouble, still only beaten 1.75 lengths in a NY open MSW, his lone turf try among three starts. Work since last start and blinkers on, FWIW. MIND THE GAP lost important early position given the slow pace with a poor start last out making career debut in a DEL turf route. He figures to improve.

SIXTH RACE

There just might be too much pace entered in this $8K sprint claimer with an N1Y condition that doesn’t apply to races for a $7K tag or less (seems awful high, doesn’t it?). EL GRILLO is comfortable stalking and pouncing and while his recent strong form came at DEL he has a good LRL record, too. Do worry about a horse at this level on a tworace win streak taking a step back. MARTYWITHTHEPARTY just turned in a career-best performance on Oct. 13 and all things being equal should come back closer to his historical mean now - at a short price, one assumes. THE GREAT PROVIDER re-claimed and raised in class by barn having outstanding meet, and all that is good, but he’s a pace-forward horse who’s stuck down on the rail inside a lot of other on-paper speed.

SEVENTH RACE

Twice-started SWING STEP probably needed his most recent race, a comeback from a year-plus layoff, in any case, and then got pinched at the start, pushed toward the back of the field, and stuck five wide around the turn. Down in class now with that run behind him but not radically, concerningly so. SPACE SHUTTLE’s checkered 2018 campaign, below-par run when last seen in August, and drop now into first claiming race raises some red flags, but the overall scope of things suggests he can contend. SALINGER on the other hand gets a little bump in price after a claim and the cutback to a sprint trip doesn’t hurt him. Not to be wry, but he’s shown a tendency to want to be caught even when he fires.

EIGHTH RACE

INVIGOROUS ran into subsequent G1 winner Mind Control in in his debut and even gave him a bit of a tussle finishing second at MTH. Came back with a maiden win, and gets a pass for running below that dirt form in synthetic-surface stakes try last out. Plenty of room to grow; favorable draw outside in this rare 2yo allowance race. SUCCESSFUL ZIP, from same barn as top pick, is blinkers on now after a no-show in the G1 Champagne. Got a big number for MTH maiden-breaker but speed horses breaking free and running solo on that surface often turn in performances that inflate their baseline value. ALWAYSMINING can easily be forgiven modest run last out in turf debut, and two back he and the new barn might still have been in get-toknow-one-another phase. Chance.

NINTH RACE

The kind of funny thing is the 35% first-after-claim strike rate from trainer C Gonzalez running below his 41% strike rate at this LRL meet. COCKTAIL WAITRESS not in for any tag after being haltered by Gonzalez and owner Bob Bone for $16K in last. No surprise if she kicks her performance level up a notch. AUTOBAHN EXPRESS’s mile-70 route two back combined with 6f sprint last out suggest this 7f trip could really suit, and she fits on “class.” EIGHTY SIX METS had a down run last time and might prefer turf but overall form arc hints she can muster something at least mildly competitive.

TENTH RACE

The ones with experience in this $40K maidenclaimer / MD-bred MSW don’t inspire a lot of confidence. First-timer DYNAMIC KID debuts with solid work pattern and turf pedigree for barn proven capable with debut runners in routes.

TRACY WITH A Y, stable-mate of top pick, ran on steadily for a decent second turf-sprinting first out, can be forgiven the slop flop last time, and is bred to get the two-turn mile. TRI TRY COLORS could prove more effective on dirt.