ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, CONQUEST FLATTERME

FIRST RACE

Early first post this Saturday, 12 noon. RAVEN CREEK drops into a claiming race for the first time, while returning to the downhill course on which he won a maiden race in spring. Looks like a relatively soft pace scenario; ‘CREEK should be forwardly placed. MORE HONOR also is a downhill course specialist; two starts on the hill produced a win and a second. He is not quick, he will be running late while facing easier claiming 3yos than the older N1X rivals he met last out. ZESTFUL is another dropping in class, going route to sprint and gelded since his most recent start. He can improve.

SECOND RACE

SPOKANE EAGLE ran too good to lose last out at this $16k claiming N3L level. He dueled from an inside post, went fast on the front end, and missed by only a length. Good effort, good claim. He can win if able to avoid another fast-pace battle. However, he faces a formidable rival drawn to his outside. That is last-out N2L winner MICHAEL MUNDO, whose daylight victory was his second straight on the main track at Santa Anita (maiden30 winner here in June). He is quick, and will either make the lead or keep the top choice honest. TWIRLING TIGER and GRINGO STAR will rally from behind.

THIRD RACE

Only five starters in this downhill allowance sprint; all are good. LAW ABIDIN CITIZEN is in top form; he finished a close fourth last out in a graded turf sprint; his two starts at Del Mar were super (fast-pace route, troubled turf sprint). He is trained by Mark Glatt, whose second entrant is more accomplished. That is BLACKJACKCAT, who has been unable to reproduce his outstanding 2017 form (G2 winner, third in BC Mile). However, he faced tougher all three starts this year, drops from graded stakes to allowance, he has run well on the hill and has enough speed to be forwardly placed in a race that might not unfold at a particularly fast tempo. CISTRON drops in class and should be within striking range of the lead even with blinkers off. ANN ARBOR EDDIE goes route to sprint, while RESTRAINEDVENGENCE is the only 3yo in the field. He has won the hill. This is an interesting race, though with only five starters wagering value might be minimal.

FOURTH RACE

MAD MIKE pressed and faded in his debut in June. Now months later, the 2yo returns with a series of bullet works for a new trainer while dropping in for a $50k tag. First-time starter BRIX is the first foal produced by debut winner Koukla. The mare and this colt’s sire Twirling Candy both were trained by John Sadler, same as BRIX. Would like to see a workout over the slower Santa Anita surface, but all his works were at Los Al. HANDSOME JOHN is a first-time gelding that hit the board twice in summer before tailing off.

FIFTH RACE

Runner-up last out in a Cal-bred maiden turf sprint, RED ENVELOPE stretches to a mile as the controlling speed. He should be long gone. HIT THE SEAM returns from a four-month layoff with workouts that suggest he will fire first time back. His fourth-place finish in a Cal-bred turf route stakes two back might be good enough. R MATINEIGH IDOL, stablemate to the top choice, finishing six lengths clear of third last time in his debut on dirt. Gelded since, moves to turf, has speed if he wants to use it.

GIANT INFLUENCE has been banging heads with good allowance company, but he is not quite fast enough. The gelding became eligible to this N3L claiming starter allowance by running for a $40k tag three starts back; that runner-up finish in the N1X/optional claiming mile would be plenty fast enough to win this seven-furlong dash. EL ASESINO has upset potential. Claimed two months ago from a $25k claiming romp, gelded since, he returns “protected” in a race from which he cannot be claimed. The placement signals optimism; the drawback is the inside post. If he slips through the cracks in the 8-1 odds range or higher, he might be worth a gamble. CARAY had a nightmare trip three weeks ago; his N2L starter allowance win two back was solid. Logical contender with a pressing trip. SHEER FLATTERY goes first off the claim, route to sprint. He figures as a late threat.

SEVENTH RACE

CONQUEST FLATTERME has much in her favor in this seven-furlong N1X including a better post than last out and figs that rank among the tops in this field. Though she was compromised last out by a blazing pace after breaking from the rail, she actually ran well. She hung tough until deep stretch before tiring to fifth. Now she moves to an outside post (6 of 8) where she can either make the lead or press the pace in the clear. Her high-figure runnerup effort at this 7f “specialty” distance here in May would be tough to beat. CUTE KNOWS CUTE pressed soft fractions last out against easier, and took advantage of the situation to win clear. She has won her last three dirt sprints, and could get a good trip positioned outside and behind the top choice. TIME FOR EBBY drops from N2X to run for the optional $40k claim tag. If the pace gets hot, ‘EBBY might be the best closer in the field. SHEZA CHATTYKAT has some speed, she moves from turf to dirt and makes her first start since changing trainers.

EIGHTH RACE

INCREDIBLE LUCK drops for the first time into a claiming race; this N3L turf mile is within reach. His two wins were on the Santa Anita turf course, his recent figures are reasonable for this level, he has a forwardly placed running that adapts to any scenario and recent workouts suggest he will fire his top shot first start since mid-August. UBER STAR also drops from N1X races. Although unsuccessful at this N3L level several tries in spring, he actually ran well despite coming up short. The late-runner will rally from the back. ACKER drops in class, and shortens to a mile; BUCKSTOPPER KIT misfired at odds-on, but his decisive win two back against 3yo claiming rivals puts him in the hunt against this cast of older. CATS BLAME was claimed from a solid runner-up sprint try at this level; downhill turf sprinters can be successful stretching to a mile. IMPRESSION is a frontrunning dirt horse that will set or press the pace.

NINTH RACE

HONEYFROMTHESOUTH appears to have rebounded from her interrupted training pattern; she posted no recorded works from Sept. 11 to Oct. 6. She has recovered, based on two sharp recent works. Runner-up both starts, including a highly rated (82 Beyer) effort last out in which she finished more than six lengths clear of third, ‘SOUTH adds blinkers as the logical choice. The knock is likely low odds. MADAME VESTAL ran well both starts, runner-up in each. She has speed, is drawn outside the top choice, and figures for a good trip forwardly placed pressing the pace in the clear. If the top pick misfires, ‘VESTAL would be among the first to pounce. SLEWGOODTOBETRUE debuts with a solid workout pattern for a stable that occasionally pops with first-time starters. POSIT is another first-time starter with a solid workout pattern. She is a sibling to four-time stakes winner Chanel’s Legacy.

TENTH RACE

A full field of 14 entered in this G3 turf mile for 3yo fillies. TOINETTE gets the call, based on her spring form when she won three straight including a victory over Rushing Fall. That rival returned to win successive graded stakes including a G1. TOINETTE subsequently misfired in a G1 mile-andone-quarter (too far?), but appears to have trained well for her first start in nearly four months, and she runs well fresh. MS BAD BEHAVIOR lost as the favorite last time out in a sprint, but she ran well to finish second. She stretches back to a mile, and should get a good trip forwardly placed against a field that came up relatively short on speed. ‘BEHAVIOR, stakes winner on this course at one mile in March, can either set the pace or sit second. East Coast shipper TESORA scored a convincing win last month in a sprint stakes at Belmont Park. She can run long, she has shipped to California and won, and her figures are on the upswing. SPRING LILY is trying something new (turf) for her first start in two months. The best races of her career were returning from layoffs; SPRING LILY might be the speed of the field. Come and catch her.

ELEVENTH RACE

Reliable veteran LAMBO LUXX is the one to beat in this $8k claiming sprint. He won successive starts vs. similar, has tactical speed for a good trip from the outside post, he is versatile and among the fastest in the field on figs. The 9-for-34 pro has been involved in six photo-finishes (neck, nose, head) in his career: five wins, one second. KETOS is plenty fast enough on numbers, but his placement at this low $8k claiming level is odd considering he was claimed last out for $20k. His races on this track in spring would blow away this field. But his condition is uncertain. ST. RENO moves up one small class level after a game win three weeks ago. I’LL WRAP IT UP ran races early this year that are fast enough for this, while class dropper BRADDOCK was once good enough.