ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, SEISMIC JOLT

FIRST RACE

MY RULES has been off since he was claimed for $16K on July 4 so it is a bit concerning to see him in for half the price combined with taking this long to make it back. Nonetheless, just about any of his previous races would win this, and Garcia has solid numbers in all the relevant categories, especially his 28% strike rate with horses dropping in value by 50% or more. LEROI’S GEM could be sitting on a big effort in his third start following a layoff and shouldn’t have as wide a trip as he did in his latest. RANGER’S COMING goes from dirt to turf and he ran a few decent races going long on turf at Monmouth earlier this year.

SECOND RACE

BEFORE picked things up in her latest work, is taking a substantial drop, and since 2016 her trainer has a 25% strike rate and $6.85 ROI with horses coming off a layoff of 180 days or more. She did show some speed in a couple of her races and could be gone if she leaves there running. CHIEF BOW NO MOVE is a 26-time maiden but finished second in both of her starts at the meet and is versatile so Castillo should be able to work out a trip. VIDA TROPICAL takes a substantial drop and she was in the mix for a while when she went a middle distance on the main track two back. She goes turf to dirt for Simon who has solid numbers with horses making the surface switch.

THIRD RACE

SPEEDING STARLET won a $20K n2L at Delaware coming off a similar layoff and she won’t mind the shorter distance after finishing a close fourth in a $12.5K n3L that has produced a next-out winner, plus, the horses that dead-heated in front of her finished second in their next starts. EXTRA SALSA has been knocking on the door since she got her second win and at the least should be part of any exotics ticket. SEARCH FOR SAMMY finished behind Salsa in her latest, but she may have bounced after earning a career-best Beyer for her sharp win in a $10K n2L in her previous race, plus, she has a good record over this surface.

FOURTH RACE

COWTOWN SPIRIT is the speed of the speed, races for a strong jockey-trainer combo and rarely runs a bad race. She should be gone if she breaks on top. DANCING DONUT faded badly when she dueled in his latest but she drew the outside post and could be dangerous if Maragh gets her to settle into a stalking position like she did the last time she won. ITALIAN SMILE should be rolling late and it is possible she could pick up the pieces if the top two get into an all-out duel. More than likely she will get up in time to be part of the exotics, though.

FIFTH RACE

SEISMIC JOLT was in the mix for a while when he debuted in a super key race that produced three next out winners. The winner, Fog of War, came back to win the Grade 1 Summer at Woodbine, and the third-place finisher, Current, followed up his win in a MSW race at Belmont with a win in the Grade 3 Bourbon at Keeneland. This is obviously a considerably easier spot. GLADIATOR KING took a huge step forward in his second start and becomes the choice if the race gets moved to the main track. His stakes-winning dam lost the only time she ran on grass and his two sibs to race are a combined 0 for 5 on turf. KING OTTOKAR and FORT KING, both well-bred, have been training forwardly for Casse who can have them ready to roll. Being a half to Grade 2 Del Mar Derby winner Free Rose, King Ottokar might be better suited for grass.

SIXTH RACE

QUEEN MADELEINE broke a half-step slow and after moving into contention she hung in the stretch in an improved effort in her second start. She could be a handful if she continues to progress. Running for a tag for the first time OLIVIA’S DREAM also improved when she held on for third after chasing a runaway winner. The horse that finished fourth won a $16K maiden claimer on the turf in her next start. Olivia drops another notch and shouldn’t mind the move back to a sprint. RESPONDINGTOGLOBAL flashed some speed before fading when she debuted in a maiden special weight race and will find this group of $12.500 maidens more to her liking

SEVENTH RACE

SPEED STAR hesitated leaving the starting gate and after trailing the field early she made a strong late run to get up for third in a similar race Oct. 8. She has yet to run a bad race on turf and with a good start could get a nice trip stalking what should be a fast and contested pace. ALL ABOUT STELLA ran a much-improved race when she broke her maiden for $35K and the 72 Beyer she received is the best last-race figure in the field. Zayas bails to stick with Speed Start but no complaints with Lopez picking up the mount. CELTIC MOONLIGHT didn’t fire in a key race her latest at Gulfstream but she likes it here and is reunited with Panici who was her rider when she reeled of four strong races earlier this year.

EIGHTH RACE

ZAMAN is just a guess, but he received some support when he debuted on turf for twice this price and after breaking alertly and showing some speed, he raced greenly and then hit the rail going into the first turn. Blinkers and Lopez going on could add up to an improved effort, and he might be better suited for dirt than turf. NO CHOICE took the plunge for his second start and just missed while running over this track for the first time. DEUCE OF DIAMONDS debuted in the same race and should move forward after dueling early and tiring late in a decent effort.

NINTH RACE

WARRANTY might not have cared for the soft conditions in her latest at Belmont and she was facing a good field with the first three finishers posting Beyer Speed Figures of 90,86,83 in their next starts. She fits better in this spot, could take a big step forward in her second start back, and her races at Gulfstream last winter would likely win this. ONE DIRECTION SONG may have needed her latest when she lost as the chalk and will appreci- ate the move back to her favorite distance. She has speed and is versatile so Vasquez has more than one option. PROUD O’PADDY is coming off three straight solid races at Laurel, the latest being a key race with two next-out winners. MONEY FACTOR is on the upswing with a romp going this distance two back and a runner-up finish going longer with Zayas getting to know her in her latest.

TENTH RACE

WINDJAMMER has had her fair of chances and probably wants more distance. However, she should find these easier than she was facing in straight maiden races in New York and should get a nice trip from a forward position. CHILLED MILK was coming off lengthy layoff when she came close to pulling off a big upset in a similar race in her first start over this course. She is eligible to move forward with a race under her belt. SPITEFUL just missed in the same race CHILLED MILK exits and that makes two solid efforts since she moved to turf for her second start. 21001 NW 27th Avenue Miami, FL 33056 (305) 625-1311 Main track: One Mile, oval. Distance from last turn to finish line: 990 Feet. Turf course: Seven Furlongs.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 17% ■ Pick 5, Super Hi 5: 15% ■ Double, Exacta, Bet 3, Pick 4,

Rainbow 6, Ultimate 8: 20% ■ Trifecta, Superfecta: 26% ■ Pick 10: 10%