ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, DIFFERENCE MAKER

FIRST RACE

DIFFERENCE MAKER ran a nice race coming off a layoff and the last time he came back in a reasonable time period he was an easy winner. He had a sharp interim work and should be tough to handle if takes the expected move forward. WAR PIPE is headed in the right direction with a sharp maiden win across town and a runner-up finish at this level in his first try on this surface. OUR BOSS is hard to love on top, but he seems to like it here and he could get up in time to be part of the exotics.

SECOND RACE

BRENDA’ S G LP ran well in both of her start son turf and she took a step forward when she was the runner-up to a 4-5 favorite in her second start at this level Oct. 12. She is she second foal out of a mare that won four times on dirt so she should be fine with the surface switch. INTO THE STARS runs for a tag for the first time and she finished second in a super key race that produced three next-out

winners when she was coming off a layoff in her second start so we know she can fire fresh. FAITH

FLYS AGAIN had a nice work Oct. 14, has been part of the tri in 8 of her 12 races, and should be part of any exotics ticket.

THIRD RACE

BARBIE’S KING might not have cared for the sloppy conditions when he debuted in a $50K maiden claimer but he’s by a good turf sire and is the second foul out of a mare who won twice on grass. Nice work Oct. 17, he drops a notch, and Lopez is attracted. ARAGO improved when he moved to turf for his second start and with a bullet interim work fired on Oct. 20 he could be sitting on a big effort here. FADE AWAY figures to move forward after showing speed in his debut on the main track and he is out turf winner so he could shine with the surface switch.

FOURTH RACE

AWESOME CLUE ran the best race of her life when she went around two turns on dirt for the first time so this could be what she wants to do. She is stepping up to face winners, but being a lightly-races 3-year-old she should have some upside and the ones she has to beat have had a lot of shots at getting their second win. AUNT BETTY finished behind ZARABANDA in a slightly shorter race at this level and the added distance should work in her favor. ZARABANDA took them a long way last time, but she is going to have to deal with other speed, most notably TAJELIHA who is dropping and should show more in her second start back.

FIFTH RACE

Not sure how EVA’S GIFT will handle turf, but she ran an improved race in her second start and her only sibling, a full-sister, won a Grade 3 on dirt at Saratoga and a $100K stakes on Tapeta at Woodbine. She comes out of a live barn and Lopez keeps the faith. SUNDAY EXPRESS finished second to a nextout winner in her debut going this distance and won’t mind the cutback in distance after looking like a threat before hanging late in a longer race in her second start. MY SWEET BREAD has a couple of works that suggest she has some speed, is by a sire that is roughly 15% with first-time starting juveniles, and she is a half-sister to a 2-year-old winner. Her trainer doesn’t have great numbers with first-time starters but is having a strong meet.

SIXTH RACE

QUEEN ROLLER romped when she moved back to a sprint in her latest and the 83 Beyer Speed Figure she received stands out. She will have to deal with other speed, but seems capable of stalking and she will be making her first start for Joseph who the past five years has a 30% strike rate with newly claimed horses. SILLY FACTOR has been freshened since she didn’t fire in a $5K starter at Monmouth dominated by Fiore who won her fourth straight in her next start in a $10K starter at Penn National. The rail is no bargain but she has good speed and could be dangerous if she clears early. YAKUT seems to be in a tough spot, but she was haltered by Delgado and it is hard to ignore the strong numbers he was with claimed horses running back the first time. She had a nice work on Oct. 13, too.

SEVENTH RACE

GRAN MALBEC is almost perfect in turf sprints and he was making just his second start when he was the runner-up in his only loss on grass. He is moving up a notch but he’s passed every challenge so far and as the speed of the speed he will be tough to reel in. TENACITY ZIP looks like the main threat. He couldn’t catch GRAN MALBEC after breaking a step slow when he was favored coming off a layoff two back, that was with a strong effort in the $75K Tamiami, and he could be sitting on a big effort the third start of his current form. GRAN SAMAN won his third straight and paid a big price when he got up in time in a similar race. He should have plenty of speed to run at here.

EIGHTH RACE

BRAG DUDE improved substantially when he moved to turf in his second start back and the 60 Beyer he received for his runner-up finish against pricier is the best last-race figure in the field. He will break from a tough post if he gets to run, but he could be sitting on a big effort in his third start back. R BABY DRIVER lost as the chalk in his last four but he is a half-brother to 5-time turf winner Jo Jo’s Dream so it might be worth giving him another chance with the surface switch. He was also in the mix for a while before fading in his only try on grass prior to going on a layoff. TWO STEPS TO TOGA ran a big race to finish second in his first try over this course and a similar effort puts him right there. FLEDERMAUS may have bounced in his latest and could make a big impact if he runs back to his previous race.