ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, RESTLESS RIDER

FIRST RACE

Breeders’ Cup Friday gets underway with thirdlevel allowance horses in the opener, a race in which 3-year-old filly STRONGER THAN EVER may hold an edge over her elders. A winner of three of seven starts, including a stakes race in which she beat Distaff entrant Wonder Gadot, she seems the class of the field. She should also move forward off her latest, a seventh in the Remington Park Oaks, her first start in over six months. Potentially disadvantaged by being a closer in a field short of pace, however. SWEET LEGACY, on the other hand, has the quickness to be sitting onetwo early. It is her form that doesn’t excite. She has gone unplaced in her last three starts, though two of those races came in stakes, and one was on grass. Northeastern invader ENTHRALL has adapted well to dirt racing in her last two starts after being managed previously as a grass horse. That noted, she exits some short fields. She won in a four-horse off-the-turf race Sept. 23 and then was third in a six-horse stake last out at Delaware.

SECOND RACE

CAPTAIN VON TRAPP, a Trappe Shot 2-year-old purchased for $290,000 earlier this year, debuted with a runner-up finish Sept. 30 at Churchill in which he closed past fellow first timer CHESS CHIEF by a half-length. As for the latter, he was prominent throughout - two lengths behind a quarter mile into the race and no more than a length behind at every call thereafter. Albarado sticks with this one even though Romans has a first timer in the race. STRAIGHT SHOT is yet another second-time starter that is a candidate to take a step forward. He rallied to be a close fifth at Churchill, and comes from a barn whose horses tend to develop as they gain experience.

THIRD RACE

CASSES STORY just won a similar race going this one-turn mile trip at Churchill, scoring first off the claim for trainer Joe Sharp, and because he raced for a tag under the optional claiming conditions that day, he gets to return at the same level. PATCH races in just his second allowance after making eight of nine post-maiden starts in stakes, including when eighth last out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He was dull in the latter outing, never getting in gear despite a hot pace that figured to aid his rally, but he has bounced back with a couple promising works for Todd Pletcher. J BOYS ECHO also disappointed in his latest, and for that matter, when 11th in his other race of the year, coming in the Feb. 19 Razorback. He, like PATCH, was outrun in last year’s Kentucky Derby. He brings plenty of back class to this race.

FOURTH RACE

Starting for Justify’s connections, IMPROBABLE looks set for the leap into stakes company after winning at first asking in a quick maiden race at Santa Anita Sept. 29. His works, both before and since his unveiling, suggest he is a colt with talent. DISTANT SHORE won first out at Indiana Grand and then went to Arlington where he ran second in the Arlington Washington Futurity over Polytrack, a surface he might not have liked as much as dirt. Even so, he was just a length and a quarter behind Big Drink of Water, a promising colt that is an also-eligible in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. TROPHY CHASER was under consideration for the Juvenile before being more conservatively spotted in this $100,000 stake. Upgrade chances if the track remains off from rain, expected to fall in buckets on Wednesday and Thursday. He won by 15 3/4 lengths in the slop at Gulfstream two starts ago before finishing fifth in the Champagne.

FIFTH RACE

With several inches of rain forecasted to fall in Louisville on Wednesday and Thursday, there is a

high probability the turf course will be extremely soft for Breeders’ Cup Friday. That gives the edge to the Europeans in most of the turf races, including in the first Breeders’ Cup race, the Juvenile Turf Sprint, in which Euros make up the one-twothree picks. Gave the nod to SERGEI PROKOFIEV, who boasts one of the highest last-out Timeform Ratings in the field, and perhaps most importantly, was a runaway winner of his only start on soft turf in Ireland back in April. SOLDIER’S CALL demonstrated his class by running third in a Group 1 against older horses. The knock, if he has any, is that he has done all of his overseas racing over straightaways - he has yet to experience racing around a turn. Twice a winner over “good to soft” turf.

SO PERFECT also brings an accomplished European resume into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, having twice been placed in Group 1 races. He also won on soft turf earlier in the year, though only by a nose. CHELSEA CLOISTERS might be the best of the Wesley Ward contingent, a filly who nearly won the Indian Summer at Keeneland, only to get tagged in the closing yards and finish second. Coming off a sharp work over the course.

SIXTH RACE

In addition to leaving her opposition far behind in two starts, NEWSPAPEROFRECORD has history on her side in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Her trainer, Chad Brown, has won this race four times since 2008, thrice with fillies that won the Miss Grillo, the same race NEWSPAPEROFRECORD exits. Established on yielding turf. LA PELOSA impressed with a tenth-to-first rally in taking the Natalma at Woodbine, a victory that earned her a free pass into the Breeders’ Cup. She adapted sweetly to American racing, and was second over “good to soft” ground at Newmarket in August. LILY’S CANDLE won over this mile trip in taking a Group 1 at Longchamp, her third win from five starts. She handles any kind of ground. JUST WONDERFUL has won two of her last three races overseas, with the defeat coming in the Moyglare Stud Stakes when she dwelt at the start. She acts like a talented miss, but she has yet to race a turn, let alone two.

SEVENTH RACE

As sharp as RESTLESS RIDER has been in her last couple races - running second in the Spinaway and then winning the Alcibiades - perhaps she is capable of even more at Churchill Downs, over which she went two for two in the spring. Among those victories was an 11 1/2-length romp in the Debutante - a race she had every right to lose due to being checked behind an injured horse, and yet somehow won in a gallop. Poised to sit a sweet stalking trip in a race that looks loaded with pace.

SERENGETI EMPRESS left her foes far behind in winning the Pocahontas by 19 1/2 lengths, doing so over this track and the 1 1/16-mile distance. Somewhat surprisingly, the speed figure came back a little light given the margin of victory - though visually, it ranked as one the elite performances by a 2-year-old filly this year. That race followed a similar runaway stakes victory at Ellis Park, also with a free-running, speedy style. After a loss in her debut, BELLAFINA has rattled off three straight graded stakes victories, all authoritatively. The removal of blinkers seem to result in a more relaxed performance and a better finish in the Chandelier - though she did not turn off completely, chasing a fast pace. Envisioning her and SEREGENTI EMPRESS hooking up down the backstretch, with others in the mix, too. SIPPICAN HARBOR acts well suited to the stretch out to 1 1/16 miles after twice winning going seven furlongs at Saratoga, including in the Spinaway over RESTLESS RIDER.

EIGHTH RACE

LINE OF DUTY surged to win the Group 3 Prix de Conde in a sharp performance Oct. 1 at Chantilly, finding daylight in midstretch after being blocked in traffic. He acts like a developing type for Godolphin, though he has yet to be tested against anything of this quality. Handled “good to soft” ground in winning at Chantilly. ANTHONY VAN DYCK, favored with British bookmakers, drew poorly in post 14, from which a wide trip could loom. He is otherwise attractive, being one of Europe’s top 2-year-olds and established on tiring ground. CURRENT just got up to win the Bourbon by a nose, prevailing despite a wide trip. That victory followed a maiden win over damp turf at Belmont. SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN similarly handled wet grass when second in the Pilgrim. Perhaps the result of being overly aggressive down the backstretch, he was outfinished late by FORTY UNDER.

NINTH RACE

After rolling to a first-out maiden victory at Saratoga, COMPLEXITY stepped right up into the stakes ranks and dominated the Champagne on the lead. He has yet to prove the ability to rate or to go two turns, but there is no disputing his talent. Likely double the price of favored GAME WINNER. The latter is three for three for Hall of Famer Bob Baffert - winning his debut, the Del Mar Futurity and the American Pharoah. A versatile horse that can win pressing or stalking the pace, he brings much to the table in the Juvenile, except a price. STANDARD DEVIATION is a value horse to throw into the gimmicks - a first-out winner at Saratoga who rallied for third in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland under challenging conditions. The Keeneland track favored speed this past meet, and this one was further disadvantaged that day by starting from post 13. Although never a threat when second to COMPLEXITY in the Champagne, CODE OF HONOR performed well, coming from the rear of the pack after stumbling at the start. Most 2-year-olds would have thrown in the towel under those circumstances.

TENTH RACE

ROCKETRY’s strength is his stamina, whether he is running on turf, or dirt, as he does in Friday’s nightcap, the 1 3/4-mile Marathon. He transitioned effectively from turf to dirt in winning the Temperance Hill at Belmont, a race in which he lowered Man o’ War’s track record there for the infrequently used distance of 1 5/8 miles. If he handles Churchill as well as he did that surface, he ought to be tough. WAR STORY was no match for the top choice last out at Belmont, running a distant third, but his body or work over the past two years catches the eye. He has made over $2 million in 14 races in 2017-2018. TOAST OF NEW YORK, the second alternate for Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, may run in this spot if he cannot draw in into the big race. He performed well to grab second in the Lukas Classic off the bench but is an unknown going this lengthy a trip.