ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, SURGE OF PRIDE

FIRST RACE

FEARLESS FOE has only raced over sloppy tracks in races scheduled for turf at Monmouth but he raced on gamely for 3rd once finding stride in his debut, then stretched out at the MSW level and was no match in his second start; cuts back and returns to the claiming ranks in a spot where he won’t have to improve all that much to contend. HOT MESA has a troublesome habit of breaking poorly from the gate but he has run well enough to beat a field like this one in his last two starts at this level; seems a much better horse over fast dirt so will be hoping the expected rain doesn’t materialize. CONFEDERATION took some money for his career debut a couple of months ago and did no running after a slow start with Ortiz just holding him together while keeping him wide; makes his second start off the claim as a new gelding and can be given the chance to show something vs. this field.

SECOND RACE

DIRTY figures tough in this field as he drops out of a pair of stakes tries where he was no match for Breeders’ Cup-bound World of Trouble while running the second-best race both times; 3yo faced older horses here but he is better than them based on his recent form. COROT not without something to prove in this spot but he did run well to break his maiden in his first start sprinting over a synthetic track while earning a competitive figure for his trouble; was no match in his lone turf start, which came going longer vs. a good field, but he may just be better sprinting and he’s a price in a field where the shorter priced alternatives are known quantities. BOURBON CURRENCY cutting back for this after giving way over a mile just seven days ago; turf sprint form has been steadily improving and he did not have an easy trip in that last one at Saratoga when stuck on a wide chase and just getting outfinished for the leftovers while in the mix late.

THIRD RACE

Was looking for new faces in this maiden claimer on turf, for better or worse, and settled on firster COLLINS AVE who debuts for a capable trainer (Abreu 6 for 28 with first time starters since strik- ing out on his own, 21%, $3.34 ROI, with 2 of the 6 winners coming on turf); this gelding is a half to the good turf horse Tapit Today and from a dam who was a stakes winner on grass in California. TOLAGA BAY’s lone start so far to stay on grass came in his debut, and he was no real threat that day while racing on after a good trip; think that figure may have come back a little low based on the subsequent efforts from the 1-2 finishers in that race and he will have Lasix for the first time on turf as he drops in class for this. IMPAZIBLE ODDS chased pace-setting longshot Honorable Hero all the way most recently and was outfinished in the stretch after failing to reach a contending position; class relief helps him. COTTON HOUSE a contender dropping for a trainer who is strong with the MSW to MCL move, and he will also get Lasix for the first time as he moves back to turf, but he has done no running in his first two starts.

FOURTH RACE

OUR CIRCLE OF LOVE doesn’t have much in the way of excuses to point to while finishing second-best in each of her four starts to date, but she has run a series of figures that point to her in this spot, and while I don’t necessarily love any of the fillies she has lost to along the way, any one of them would also look pretty good in this field; one more chance from a nice draw. SCIENCE FICTION earned a 73 Beyer in her second career start way back in 2016, then finished 2nd or 3rd in each of her next six starts on dirt; gets a trainer change to Diodoro for her return to dirt after finishing gamely and finally approaching her top figure again on synthetic last time. THAT’S SPEIGHTFUL tired out readily behind OUR CIRCLE OF LOVE in her debut on dirt, but only after chasing four-wide into a pace that was slow-to-develop in front of her; turf to dirt with a chance to improve in a race looking for horses like her.

FIFTH RACE

H MAN theoretically should have run better last time as an MTO, though he has found the allowance ranks too tough right along and the 1x to 2x move is much tougher than given credit for; this is his level, even though he has mostly been kept away from running in races like this (he is 5 for his last 8 in claiming or starter races), and he likes a wet track should that come into play. OSTROLENKA is 0 for 10 since winning the Hudson last October while in form, but he did finish pretty well at this level two starts back in a race that was wired by Sudden Surprise, and he has caught several wet tracks this year, which is not something he is comfortable with. SAL THE TURTLE has earned a pair of 89 Beyers recently which point him out in this field as he moves up in class, though his effort at this level two back wasn’t particularly strong, even after taking into account a tactical error in conceding the lead to the eventual winner (who was 50:1); versatile in terms of running style and the horse to beat considering current form.

SIXTH RACE

REAL MONEY hold an edge in experience in field full of first time starters and he has actually run well in both starts to date; thought it was odd to see him turning back to try the Futurity as a maiden last time after running a solid race in a strong field first time out, but he did well there while taking over on a fast pace and weakening late in a race that went to closers. THE OTHER KESSLER cutting back for his second start after getting into position early but not going on with it first time out, and then getting outfinished late; don’t think that was the strongest field in the world but he can do better with that race out of the way and he can handle this cut back based on pedigree (half-brother Mr. Gruff was an excellent turf sprinter in California a few years back). FRONT RUN THE FED debuted in a strong race on dirt and ran deceptively well while fanning wide after breaking slowly and landing a piece late; dam posted all three career wins on turf, though his sire, so far, has had little success on grass (from a limited sample). PULSATE brought $280k after breezing straight and solid in 10.2 back in April; dam was a stakes winner on turf in her career and was graded stakes-placed three times.

SEVENTH RACE

TRUE TIMBER has improved since allowed to concentrate on sprinting this year, with his effort two back when dueling down subsequent Grade 2 winner Patternrecognition suggesting that he can factor here; figure declined las time off a short layoff but there wasn’t much pace on in that race and he did well to close that race down late. COAL FRONT returns from an extended, injury-induced layoff in the Bold Ruler but he is in a position to control if he breaks well form the rail, assuming he can still run; Pletcher excels off of long layoffs like this any way you slice it (13 for his last 35 with horses returning from year + layoffs, 37%, $2.56 ROI; 10 for 22 on dirt in that sample, 45%, $3.05 ROI; 9 for 18 in sprints, 50%, $3.52 ROI). NO DOZING ran well as a new gelding in his 4yo debut while earning a new top Beyer, though that figure came back a little high for both him and the runnerup (who is only okay); thought he did well to finish where he did after a difficult trip in the Forego, but he was disappointing last time after getting into position on a rated pace, even after getting bumped back to last at the break.

EIGHTH RACE

MANGO M was no match late as the favorite over yielding ground last time, though he was on the outside all the way over a widener course that was carrying inside runners, and he has legit excuses for his first two starts in this condition at Saratoga (blocked in traffic on Travers Day, saddle slipped two back); giving him one more chance vs. a weaker field this time. PHONE FUNKY MUNKY has been struggling in the claiming ranks lately, though he did have a tough trip two starts back in a race where he may have been able to contend late; enters with the top last out figure in the field after just missing at a big price vs. $50k claimers, but that race set up perfectly for is late run with the pace picking up early. NOT SO QUIET MAN has mostly kept to sprinting on turf and has spent most of his career facing low-level claimers, but he won going long back in June with a competitive figure and he has good tactical speed; needs firm turf to run up to his best.

NINTH RACE

SURGE OF PRIDE back quickly after powering by fellow NY-breds with a competitive figure in the Maid of the Mist 13 days ago making her dirt debut; lightly-raced filly looked good on turf to start her career but she has a dirt pedigree on the bottom and liked the way she finished that race off last time once getting fully clear in the upper stretch. TAKECHARGE MIRELLA will have to get faster in a hurry in order to contend here but she looked okay while no match for the talented Feedback first time out, and while her figure declined when holding on by a desperate nose last time, she was actually much the best there after making an early move into a fast pace. BRUCIA LA TERRA had speed in a race rained off the turf first time out and was an easy winner in a race that didn’t have much to it once favored Teletype gave way off the quarter pole, but she backed that race up well when rallying for 2nd in the Grade 1 Frizette; good post on the outside this time after winding up last from her rail draw last time.

TENTH RACE

BLUSHING JUSTINE had an excuse three back when a big price despite being dropped in class and she has since run well in her last two starts, including that last one when getting away at the back of the field and trailing to the stretch, before putting in a game run down the outside; needs to break better moving outside, which she managed two starts back at this level. TWOFER easily broke her maiden when dropped in class for the first time at Saratoga off the layoff, and she backed that race up pretty well to earn another figure that gives her an apparent edge despite being no real threat last time; goes for a new trainer as the likely favorite and horse to beat. IMPAZIBLE CREEK improved behind BLUSHING JUSTINE two starts back then stepped up her game slightly again last time when battling with the eventual winner in the stretch, before settling for second best; upset chance if she can keep it going.