ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, MUCHO UNUSUAL

FIRST RACE

Breeders’ Cup Friday at Churchill Downs, first post time Friday at Santa Anita 12 noon. Last-out winner CIMPL MAN looks tough right back in this N1X/ optional $40k claiming turf mile. The horse he beat by three-quarters returned Sunday to win for $25k. CIMPL MAN was claimed from his win by Vladimir Cerin, who has won with 5 of his last 6 favorites first off the claim. John Sadler-trained AVALANCHE and ICY STREET are legit threats from off the pace. AVALANCHE tried the first allowance condition seven times, he finished in the money five times. ICY STREET was keen and too close to the pace in his seventh-place comeback following a layoff of 10 months. He packs a dynamite late kick when he takes back and rallies. Second start back from a layoff, that is the likely strategy this time. FABOZZI drops from N2X to run for the optional $40k claim tag.

SECOND RACE

The speed of the field, shortening from six furlongs to five, dropping from Cal-bred maiden-50 to open maiden-20, DESIRED EDGE can lead this field gate to wire. CHARMING ALEXIS did not run well last out, when she broke from the inside post on a track labelled “good.” Her third-place debut two back on “fast” was decent, and her stable is rolling. Trainer Jack Carava is 13-for-54 since early August, he won 3 of 4 last week. ONE UPPER drops from a maiden-40 that produced two next-out winners, Z Z TIGER benefits by the shorter trip, and SOCIAL ETIQUETTE drops but is unproven on dirt.

THIRD RACE

This N3L claiming downhill turf sprint is a scramble. The call is comeback dropper TINK’S TWIRL. She has run well against better, and she runs well fresh (debut winner). In her only previous start on the hill, she lost her chance at the break. HALO DARLIN missed by only two lengths last out under similar N3L conditions. She will rally late. Although frontrunners and pressers hold the advantage this meet on the hill, the speed-friendly profile is less severe as early in the meet. Closers can win. NO WINE UNTASTED will be positioned in front of the top pair, while returning to turf. Her three previous tries on grass were not good, but she is a better now than she was early this year. And, she has speed.

FOURTH RACE

SUPERHOTAMOLLY benefits from the shorter distance of this five and a half-furlong race. She dueled and tired last time going six; perhaps she can carry her speed at this abbreviated trip. Firsttime starter REDS SACRED APPEAL appears to have trained well enough for her debut in a weak Cal-bred maiden-50. IMMINENT drops from Calbred maiden special-weight for her first start in more than five months. This race is perplexing.

FIFTH RACE

COPPER FEVER returns to preferred footing (turf) after finishing fourth as the favorite last out on dirt. Her turf races are significantly better than her dirt races, she can fire first off the claim by Peter Miller despite the outside post in this N2L claiming turf mile. QUINNIE has been facing tougher; she drops to the N2L claiming level for the first time, while MISS UNUSUAL stretches out from a thirdplace dirt sprint in which she set/pressed the pace until deep stretch before getting worn down. From the inside post, with sprint speed, she looks like the pace of the race.

SIXTH RACE

BAM BAMS LIL RIVER made it look easy her only start, a six-length romp. She figures for a great trip, positioned second behind the speedster on the rail. When that one fades, ‘RIVER can inherit the lead. That assumes the front-runner will fade. SIX PACK GAL is probably the speed of the field,