Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
RAINBOW 6
MANDATORY PAYOUT POOL TO EXCEED $5 MILLION FREE’S ANALYSIS, ILLMAN’S TICKETMAKER TICKET
ARCADIA, Calif. – A colossal pick-six pool expected to soar beyond $6 million will be paid to bettors Sunday at Santa Anita, where the single-ticket jackpot has been building for more than a month and totaled $992,979 going into the Friday card.
Santa Anita adopted a singleticket jackpot structure for the autumn-meet pick six, siphoning 30 percent of the daily net pool into a jackpot that is paid only when a single ticket wins the wager, or on a mandatory payout day. Sunday is closing day, with a mandatory payout. The entire pool will be paid.
Barring a single-ticket winner Friday or Saturday, the jackpot will be more than $1 million and the total pool considerably higher for Sunday’s mandatory payout. Estimates vary regarding the total pool. One method to estimate new money is basic – divide carryover by takeout rate.
In approximate terms, the Sunday calculation is a $1 million carryover divided by 23.68 percent takeout, or $4.2 million in new money. The total should be significantly higher due to the mandatory-payout provision and the likelihood the jackpot will grow Friday and Saturday.
The pick six is a 20-cent wager at Santa Anita; the low bet size can produce slapdash betting styles. Some bettors, rather than make a distinction between marginal contenders – include or toss? – include more fringe contenders simply because, at 20 cents, the bet is affordable.
Other bettors will employ a sensible approach by differentiating between which horses to include on a main ticket and which to include on backup tickets. Of course, just because the pick six is a 20-cent wager does not preclude wagering at a higher denomination. After all, the $2 pick six was one of the most popular bets in California for decades.
The pick six Sunday at Santa Anita covers races 5-10. The sequence is not easy. That is the fun of it, right? Standard time returns Sunday (set clocks back one hour), first post is early at 11 a.m. Pacific. Post time for the first leg of the pick six, race 5, is approximately 1 p.m. A preview is below.
RACE 5: First-time starters are top contenders in this $30,000 maiden-claiming sprint for 2-year-olds at 5 1/2 furlongs. Diamond Blitz (11) worked well. He is by a 16 percent debut sire and is a sibling to a debut winner. Irish Polo (1) debuts for trainer Peter Miller, whose 26 percent win rate over the past five years with debuting juveniles in maiden-claiming races make him a must-use.
Bettors can monitor win betting and will-pays before placing pick-six wagers. Favorites at this meet are 6 for 10 in juvenile maiden-claiming sprints.
Secondary contenders include Running w scissors (2), dropper Mayan Warrior (3), and first-time gelding Mo Dinero (6).
RACE 6: A potential single is Tiz a Billy (1) in this $50,000 claiming turf sprint on the hill. Tiz a Billy is the speed of the field, and up in class after a $25,000 claiming romp that was his fourth win on the hill. The knocks: Tiz a Billy does not always run two alike, and he drew the undesirable inside post.
The downhill course favors front-runners and pace pressers. Last-out runaway dirt winner Hitters Park (5) could get a great trip positioned second. Hitters Park has won on the hill, and his trainer, Jack Carava, is holding a hot hand. Secondary contenders include closer Perfectly Majestic (3) and two-time downhill winners Allaboutmike (8) and My Man Chuckles (9).
RACE 7: The bottom level at Santa Anita is $20,000 maiden claiming, and contenders usually are easy to identify. That is true in this 6 1/2-furlong sprint. For the Hustle (11) would be tough to catch if he reproduces his last-start runner-up finish while shortening up from seven furlongs.
However, a comebacker offers value. Flynn (1) is quick enough to establish position from the rail, and he likes the Santa Anita surface. Sprints at 6 1/2 furlongs during this meet have played fair to all styles, and if the front-runners burn out, the race could fall apart. Secondary contenders from off the pace include Powerful Thirst (6), Bartlett Hall (7), and Pastorelli (8).
RACE 8: The Grade 2 Twilight Derby, for 3-year-olds at 1 1/8 miles on turf, is conspicuously void of pace. The scenario benefits Majestic Eagle (3) and likely favorite River Boyne (8). Either could make the lead, and they could turn the race into a parade if they slow it down. Two of the last four turf races at nine furlongs were won by slow-pace front-runners. Eight others are entered in the Twilight Derby.
RACE 9: Surfing Star (6) blitzed a statebred allowance last out at the same one-mile trip as this open first-level allowance. If he runs two alike, carrying eight pounds more and up in class, he can win again. Longden (10) should improve second start back, recent maiden winner Pleasant d’Oro (4) is improving, and Kylemore (8) has improved since being claimed. He was a vet scratch Oct. 5.
RACE 10: The last race is the most difficult. Two-yearold maidens race a mile on turf, and Farquhar (4) may or may not be the right horse. He raced greenly and finished fifth at Gulfstream Park in his career debut, and he adds blinkers and Lasix for his California debut for trainer Vladimir Cerin.
Neptune’s Storm (2) finished well for fifth last out and has been gelded since; Speaker of the house (5) should improve from his seventh-place debut. This race is tough, and picksix bettors probably need to go deeper than just the three mentioned above.