ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, ENTHUSIASTIC GAL

FIRST RACE

DING DONG DITCH bobbled very awkwardly at the start of his NY debut and first start for this trainer and wound up last, but he put in a good run through the stretch to be 2nd to a horse who, while an underachiever is not untalented; has been rained off in both starts since, but deserves another chance at this level back on grass. WICKED TRICK has speed and projects to be clear on the lead once again as he makes his second start at this level; had had trouble holding on thus far, but he did nearly last over a longer trip at Keeneland back in April. BIG MUDDY dropping to make his turf debut from a good inside post; dam posted both career wins on turf sprinting and was stakesplaced over a mile.

SECOND RACE

BARAHIN was unlucky in his debut while contesting the pace all the way before falling to a couple of closers but he returned from the layoff to dominate maidens on the lead in fast time; talented colt projects to be fastest early once again as he steps up to face winners. WINE NOT an infrequent winner but he is getting the right turn back here after finishing a game 4th in the Empire Classic over a distance that is tough for him; has been in career-best form for this trainer as a 5yo. HAVE ANOTHER had little chance when last behind moderate fractions in a short field most recently, but he can contend here with something like that effort two back when outfinishing WINE NOT for 2nd behind another easy pace.

THIRD RACE

QUICK CONNECT out of a mare who has produced four minor winners so far, all of them also by lower-profile sires; appears to be debuting at the right level for a trainer who is adept with first time starters, and he may be able to win here if he can just approach 50 of the Beyer scale. ELIAV missed the break first time out at Laurel before rallying late for a no-threat 2nd, then ran a similar last time to pick up a no threat 3rd; blinkers on looking to get more involved early. TIGER MAN switched to dirt for the first time most recently and landed in a tough spot in a race that was run at a fast early pace and then closed down by a last-to-first winner; blinkers on for the class drop.

FOURTH RACE

A THREAD OF BLUE broke his maiden on the main track when rained off last time but he had run well on turf two starts back when second-best to the talented Current, who returned to win the Grade 3 Bourbon and is now slated to run in the Breeders’ Cup; well-bred colt back to turf in $100k stakes featuring field of 2yos still sorting themselves out. EMPIRE OF WAR wasn’t much in pair of starts on the main track to begin his career, but Declaration of War colt improved on turf to wire a field from the outside post; got an easy lead and was riding the fresher inside paths en route to that win but he can be prominent once again in this spot. ORDER AND LAW one of only three in the field with a prior win over turf, his coming in a stakes race sprinting at Laurel last time; owns the top figure in the field for that Laurel Futurity win but has to stretch out.

FIFTH RACE

VICI improved to defeat an allowance field three starts back for his dangerous trainer then wheeled back on short notice to finish a close 3rd in a Grade 3 just a week later; tactical gelding drops back to a better level for this. Was against DOWSE’S BEACH when he was bumped up in class off a win for $25k last time but he went right to the top and things were never in doubt for 7yo who is back in form for Servis; still a little leery of him, as he has gone off form more than once in the past, but he is tough to go against in current form. SPRING TO THE SKY hasn’t found the winner’s circle in a while but hard-hitting 9yo can still run and he is back at the right level after trying a couple of stakes recently.

SIXTH RACE

DIRTY BIRD debuting for a trainer who has quietly

excelled with first time starters over the past couple of seasons and this one has some pedigree as a daughter of four-time dirt sprint winner Sister City, who is herself a half to the multiple graded stakes-winner City to City. EVAN’S NICE NOW has the experience that the top one does not and she ran pretty well first time out while chasing a hot firster in Collegeville Girl and looking to squeeze through on the rail in the stretch, before tiring; back to dirt after making a move to contention and giving way on turf last time. DEARLY DECLARED took some money first time out and was in a good position in behind the lead early before tiring readily over that wet track; may ultimately be routed to turf but fact that younger half-brother to Saratoga Snacks gets another chance on dirt may not be insignificant.

SEVENTH RACE

ENTHUSIASTIC GAL has won both starts on grass in NY this year, and has actually run well in all five of her turf starts since returning from the extended layoff while not always getting lucky in the trip department; gets extra credit for cutting all the way back to this distance and running down odds-on favorite Awsum Roar with relative ease in that last one. PUPAREE hasn’t won a race since late 2016 but she has run some races along the way that would make her competitive in this spot and she is a horse who may benefit from her recent time off after putting together a long series of races without much of a break. FACTORING won her first turf start of the year back in May with a perfect trip but she was not so lucky in her next race and ran equally well after a wide trip; has tactical speed from an inside draw in a race that is not loaded with pace.

EIGHTH RACE

VEKOMA one of five in this field of six stretching out for the first time but she is doing so following an impressive debut win with the top Beyer Speed Figure in the field in a race where she was bet; Candy Ride colt is out of a Grade 1-winning mare and the horse he ran away from in that debut returned to post an easy win at Belmont while confirming that figure. FACTOR IT IN stepping up with a 2 for 3 record after burying allowance rivals at Parx last time with blinkers on; trainer is deadly stretching out on dirt from a fairly large sample (past five years, 41 for 139, 29%, $3.56 ROI, 4 for 8 in graded stakes and 4 for 4 over a flat mile). U S NAVY CROSS was outrun behind a solid early pace in his debut, but Curlin colt picked up noticeably on the turn and finished up gamely to close down a good-looking firster in the last stages; distance should be no problem considering his pedigree.

NINTH RACE

WALK OF FAME had no chance with a runaway winner at the MSW level last time but she was racing on well from last and gamely got up for 2nd at the end; takes the logical drop for trainer looking to get off the mark. UNION PATRIOT was green early on while lacking speed and showing some interest without ever getting herself into a contending position; lone start at this level on turf so far came with a cut back to 5.5 furlongs. SUPER MAMA got rained off in her return from the layoff at this level and was contesting the pace off a strong rail before tiring; unclear if she can still run after missing so much time but she was running races prior to that layoff that would be too much for this field.