ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, RACE ME HOME

FIRST RACE

DON’S BEACH has been running decent races on Tapeta at Presque Isle and he ran a big race in his latest on turf here. HIs only win came on dirt, and it was the last time he ran on it, so we’ll assume he will be fine with the surface switch. He catches a pretty weak field, too. RIGO looked good winning a $10K maiden claimer on a sloppy track and with rain in the forecast he could get his track. AMERICA’S SIMMARD isn’t very consistent but his race two back puts him in the mix.

SECOND RACE

FOR THE ROAD won’t mind being back on dirt and cutting back to a sprint after forcing the issue for six furlongs in his first route attempt while also trying turf for the first time. He will appreciate the easer company with the drop to a new low and anything close to his debut puts him right there. POITIER was up against it breaking from the rail in a full field and it didn’t help that he broke a half step slow. He did show some late interest and could make an impact with a better trip. EBRIO took a small step forward in his second start and could be sitting on a peak performance.

THIRD RACE

CHISELED won first time off the claim in the slop for Walder and came back to just miss in a $6K starter with a $10K claiming option last time.The 16-time winner owns the best last-race Beyer and it is encouraging to see Lopez pick up the mount. An 11-time winner, CHEECH THUNDER, makes his first start for Walder, and he might have being trying to tell us something when he worked a sharp half-mile on Oct. 27. He does his best running late and there should be speed coming back to him. DIZZY GILLESPIE should be in the mix early and following a big effort coming off a layoff he may have bounced in his latest. His race two back puts him right there.

FOURTH RACE

HARRYHEE gets the nod if the race gets moved to the main track. He will likely be the one they have to run down and if he runs as well as he did in the $75K Trinniberg two back he’ll be tough to beat. MANIACAL is the pick on turf. He will appreciate the class relief and being back on turf after facing Imperial Hint, 9-5 in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, and anything close to his third-place finish in the Kentucky Downs Preview at Ellis, which produced two next-out stakes winners, wins this. He will have to run down GRAN MALBEC who is gunning for his six straight win and hasn’t seen a tail in all of his victories. GRAN SAMAN used a new style of running when he rallied to win a $25K claimer in his latest and the shape of the race should work for him.

FIFTH RACE

SARA’S DAY hasn’t finished worse than second in her last five starts on dirt and her runner-up finish at this level in her latest would probably be good enough to win this. MOTION’S FIRST has improved lately and she ran a big race to finish third in the same race the top pick exits. She earned her career-best Beyer Speed Figure and with 43 starts behind her she probably doesn’t have a lot of upside, though. LUZ ESTRELLA took them a long way in the same race and once again is the one they will have to run down. DEVUELTA becomes somewhat interesting if it comes up wet.

SIXTH RACE

CROCODILE CHARLIE won the only time he ran over an off track, and he got off to a poor start

when he finished fourth in the Trinniberg in his last start. He will be tough to handle if he gets to go.

GRAY DUDE finished behind BIRD HUMOR last time but he moves inside and the Dude moves outside. GRAY DUDE was also coming off a lengthy layoff and could bounce. MODERN TALE hung after making a late move in his comeback race, should get a better trip with the move inside, and is capable of winning this if he shows up with his best stuff.

SEVENTH RACE

TRACY ANN’S LEGACY has a strong set of works and all three of her sibs are winners. One was a 2-year-old debut winner and another finished second in her only start as a baby. She is also by a strong debut sire and Lopez is attracted. MYRRH ran well in her debut and won’t mind the move back to a sprint after setting the pace before fading going around two turns in the $400K My Dear Girl. Zayas had other options but lands on VELVET ISLE for O’Connell who the past five years has a 21% strike rate (26% at this track) and $3.14 ROI with 2-year-olds debuting in maiden special weight races.

EIGHTH RACE

BELLA VINCENZA had a rough trip in the Sheer Drama and if you toss the race you are looking at three straight wins including an impressive victory in the $75K Added Elegance. She will be a deserving favorite if she gets to go. On turf it could be INDYGITA who had a perfect trip in her win over FEED ME CARATS and MI CUAIMA when she was coming off a layoff. She had a nice interim work and makes her second start after being claimed by Dobles. FEED ME CARATS had a good trip, too, and she got through along the rail while INDYGITA was making her winning move going wide around the second turn. MI CUAIMA took them a long way while setting a fast pace. She may be more settled in her second start back and could be tough to get past if Jaramillo can slow her down a bit.

NINTH RACE

RACE ME HOME is coming off a solid effort in a $50K claimer won by 9 for 19 LIne Judge who repeated in a $62,500 optional race at Indiana Downs. It was a key race and the third-place finisher won a $100K restricted stakes with an 86 Beyer in his next start at Delta Downs. ROYAL HOLIDAY was even-money when he finished second to THE BEST CANDY in a $35K starter with a $50K claiming option Oct. 11 but THE BEST CANDY regressed in his next start and ROYAL HOLIDAY could be sitting on a peak performance in the third start of his current form cycle. He should also get a cozy trip leaving from the inside post.

TENTH RACE

HOXIE went very wide around both turns and then galloped out strongly when she finished second in her debut. It was an impressive performance and she should get a better trip with the move to an inside post. She is out of a mare who only won on dirt and one of her three wins came on a wet track so she should be okay if the race gets moved to the main track. PASSION FOR HOPE is trending in the right direction with a runner-up finish on turf at this level in her latest and she finished second on dirt both times she ran over the main track. VENEZUELAN SPIRIT is an obvious contender on turf after finishing first before being disqualified in her latest at this level. HONOR INDY is the speed of the speed and could take them all the way if it stays on turf.