ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, BOLD SCRIPT

FIRST RACE

MYSTERY MESSENGER pressed the pace on the outside over an inside-biased track before fading to third following a layoff second-time out Oct. 7. TRAPPEZE ARTIST has worked quickly. His 3yo full-brother, Trapper’s Delight, won at first asking in maiden special company in April before tailing off. GARRISON’S CHARGE has worked forwardly since his fade job behind the future stakes winner Solidify Sept. 23. He’s a live longshot with the addition of Lasix in his second race.

SECOND RACE

PEACOCK KITTEN and CARDINAL KITTEN are both Ramsey/Maker second-time starters who finished second when debuting on the grass. The fourth-place finisher from the former’s engagement returned to land a maiden special at Keeneland with an 81 Beyer. The sixth and seventh runners from the latter’s July 25 race both came back to score. SANDY BAY hit the board in all six of his outings on the Tapeta.

THIRD RACE

FEDERAL LAW has worked nicely since failing to threaten after missing the break in his first start on this side of the pond in the G1 Summer. Note that he ran second in an allowance on a synthetic surface in England. INSIDER TRADING rallied inside from off fast fractions to capture his Oct. 12 opener in a two-turn maiden special. GRIMGRINNIN’ GHOST closed mildly from off quick splits for fourth last time in the G3 Grey. Use him underneath in the exotics, along with BAYTOWN JIMBO.

FOURTH RACE

SNIPER is dropping significantly from $8K to this rock bottom $5K sprint. The closer stands out Beyer-wise, and could end a long drought if he gets some pace to chase. PUGSLEY rallied belatedly from fourth in a similar spot Oct. 12, when he edged out VILMA for second. The latter is worth using in the lower rungs of vertical wagers, along with MISTER NADA.

FIFTH RACE

LOVE TO LEARN closed wide from off a lively pace to deadheat for second in a longer N1X Oct. 21. Note that she graduated over this six and a halffurlong distance. The improving 3yo RAVINIA is another MTO who could have a say in the outcome. FRESH DREAMS dominated NW3 OS/$40K opposition last time on the grass. Consider ISLAY INLET and MARCHERDOWNTHEALLY for the gimmicks.

SIXTH RACE

BOLD SCRIPT has been a model of consistency on the grass, over which she’s been stakesplaced thrice, including a second against the boys in the Cup and Saucer Stakes. She’s always worked well on the Tapeta, and should be prominent in this rich stakes for Canadian-breds on the main track. TIZ BREATHTAKING rallied on the far outside from six lengths off slow fractions to win the G3 Mazarine in her initial venture around two turns Oct. 6. She was impeded late in her only loss in the My Dear Stakes. MALIBU DAWN is stretching off a front-running maiden victory, and the daughter of Malibu Moon is bred for the task at hand. Sam-Son Farm has won this historic event six times.

SEVENTH RACE

BEST DRESSED is halving in value from a pretty good $16K maiden sprint, from which the winner exited to beat $20K NW2 rivals with a 70 Beyer.

She’s adding blinkers and Lasix, and doesn’t have much to beat under Moran, who’s 2 for 13 at the meet for this live barn. SADIE IRENE placed in two of her six outings at the meet, and could make some noise with leading rider Da Silva taking over. HOUSE ON THE HILL should be a speed threat. and CHEETAHRA is coming off an improved effort at Fort Erie.

EIGHTH RACE

MARTEN LAKE hasn’t run a bad one since this top barn claimed him last fall. The stalker should have a good trip near all the speed under regular rider Kimura. ABBAA is a wild card in his first appearance since a respectable fourth in the G1 Highlander on turf June 30. The McKnight charge is unbeaten in two synthetic track excursions. PUNTROOSKIE can pick up some of the pieces, while switching from turf to the Tapeta. SLIP KID could hang on for a slice after flashing his customary early foot.

NINTH RACE

MONASTRELL is back in for $40K following a twomonth break in his debut off the McKnight claim, a high-percentage angle. In a race without much pace, he might be more forwardly placed than usual under regular rider P. Husbands. LEONARD’S BAY raced wide over an inside-favoring track when a close second in an identical spot Oct. 7.

TIMESKIP is exiting an overdue maiden score on turf that could serve as a confidence-builder. Da Silva is sticking with him.

TENTH RACE

INDIANTOWN SUNRISE didn’t disgrace herself last time against males when a belated fourth. The closer has lots of speed to chase in this $8K dash for females, and could be along in time. SASSY OMBRE used her tactical speed to finish second in each of her last two outings under Hernandez. LADY OF MORAY brings solid Fort Erie form to this Tapeta tilt, and wouldn’t be much of a surprise.

ELEVENTH RACE

HANDSOME LIKE ME is dropping off a half-length loss vs. $10K NW2 types, and deserves top billing while remaining at seven-eighths. TWICEASLUCKY is also descending to a new low. Note that he graduated over six and a half furlongs in his penultimate start. WARDO rode an outside bias to a second-place finish in his latest. RED SEPTEMBER didn’t miss the board in his last five outings, all at Fort Erie.