ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, TANKER

FIRST RACE

Closing day of the Santa Anita autumn meet, early post time 11 a.m. with the resumption of Standard Time (Daylight Saving Time ends). TANKER and CARBON ZERO are the principals in this maiden-50 turf mile. TANKER split the field last out in a specialweight turf mile at Del Mar. He drops in class, adds blinkers and might not need much improvement to handle this modest cast. His main rival is specialweight dropper CARBON Z, last seen finishing fourth to G1-placed BC Juvenile entrant Gunmetal Gray in a summer dirt route. First start in two and a half months, dropping in class, CARBON Z is a threat if he handles turf. After the top pair, quality drops. SAMURAI JACK stretches out from sprints. He will impact the pace, similar to YOU MUST CHILL.

SECOND RACE

RAK CITY returns to the maiden-20 level. The last time he raced at this level on this track he finished second in a relatively fast sprint. Assuming he runs back to his winter-spring form, while stretching back to a mile, he should be tough. BLAZE OF GLORY was only prepping last out in a special-weight turf sprint; he finished last. This maiden-20 level is where he belongs; his Del Mar sprint form in summer puts him in the hunt as he stretches back out. SPEND IT is a 21-start maiden with 10 in-the-money finishes. He will be clunking along late, as will 19-start maiden ODYSSEY EXPLORER.

THIRD RACE

A sprinter most of her 8-for-42 career, LUCKY STUDENT may or may not stay this two-turn trip. But conditions are ideal for the attempt, because she figures to be loose on the lead. Though she finished fourth as the favorite in a sprint last out, she ran super. Under pressure throughout after breaking from the rail, she hung tough to deep stretch before she finally tired. Claimed off the effort, she stretches to a mile and a sixteenth. Come and catch her. PRINCESS KENDRA has something the top choice lacks. That is, established form over a route of ground. The truth is, any distance will do for ‘KENDRA, one-two her last four starts. IPRAY ran poorly last out, without an obvious alibi. But her spring-summer form, including two route wins, puts her in the hunt.

FOURTH RACE

Eight in a row for VASILIKA? The sharp mare won her seventh straight last out, a decisive G1 victory. She has defeated several in this G2 field, the distance turnback is not a problem because she has won at a mile. And, there is plenty of pace to run at. However, she will have to catch consistent front-runner FAHAN MURA. The latter is always a threat on the front, particularly at Santa Anita where she is 5-for-5. She set the fastest fractions of the meet for a mile turf race last out (:44.75 and 1:08.25), and kept running to win the restricted stakes. Win or lose, she is the one they all have to catch. Stakes winners I’M BETTY G and LA SARDANE will be in close pursuit of the pacesetter; they would get first run if the pacesetter fades. CAMBODIA might be ranked too low by this handicapper; 10 furlongs was too far for her last time. One mile suits her fine.

FIFTH RACE

The 20-cent pick six starts here; Sunday is mandatory payout. Unless the single-ticket jackpot was hit on Friday or Saturday, the jackpot into Sunday will be more than $1 million and the total pool is likely to soar beyond $6 million. Good day to take a swing. The opening leg is a maiden-30 for 2yos, first-time starters DIAMOND BLITZ and IRISH POLO are top contenders. The choice is DIAMOND BLITZ. His two recent workouts are sharp including an impressive 6f gate drill Oct. 20 (viewed on XTBV.com). He outworked a stablemate in decisive fashion, finished with run, and would be tough if he runs like he worked. Progeny of his sire Munnings win at a higher-than-average rate first out (16 percent) according to Thoro-Graph; the

dam of ‘BLITZ produced one runner (Boogie Toogie) whose only career win was his career debut. Trainer Keith Desormeaux is not known for firing first time out, but with maiden-claiming first-timers at 4-1 or less, he is 3-for-10 the past five years. IRISH POLO debuts for Peter Miller, whose maiden-claiming first-timers have won at a 23-percent clip the past five years (29 percent with 2yo MCL firsters). The gelding’s works at San Luis Rey are okay. RUNNINGWSCISSORS is fast; he dueled on a blazing pace last time before tiring to third. He looks like the speed of the speed, while MAYAN WARRIOR drops in class and will rally late.

SIXTH RACE

TIZ A BILLY will be tough in this $50k claiming downhill turf sprint if he reproduces his last-start $25k claiming downhill romp. His workouts indicate he remains sharp following his blowout win in which he sped to the lead, set a fast pace, and widened to win by more than seven. The win was his fourth from eight starts on the hill. ‘BILLY is the speed of the field, and quick enough to establish position despite the inside post. The class hike is fine; ‘BILLY has won at a higher level than this. Come and catch him. The inside post is a potential worry, while HITTERS PARK drew in the middle of the field and has enough speed for a great trip positioned second behind the speed. Freshened since a dominating win at Los Al, he has won on the hill and might be the first to attack if the top choice misfires. MY MAN CHUCKLES, 3-for-7 on the hill, runs fresh and looms a legit contender from off the pace. ALLABOUTMIKE ran like he needed the start last out. He has won twice on the hill.

SEVENTH RACE

Front-running favorite FOR THE HUSTLE and frontrunning upset candidate FLYNN are the principals in this maiden-20 sprint. FOR THE HUSTLE ran a winning race while finishing second a month ago at seven furlongs; he benefits by this shorter distance of six and a half. Last out, he sped to the lead, set a fast pace, opened up, got the staggers and finished second. Sharp works since raced, he is the one to catch. FLYNN also has speed and could tuck into a cozy trip positioned second. FLYNN misfired in his summer comeback at Del Mar, but recent works are solid and he does like this racetrack. If the top pair run each other into the ground, anything goes. Lightly raced PASTORELLI drops to the bottom class level for the first time and will be running late. A similar comment applies to 15-start maiden POWERFUL THIRST, 9-start maiden BARTLETT HALL and 29-start maiden SUPREME GIANT.

EIGHTH RACE

The G2 Twilight Derby for 3yos is be a good spot to take a shot at an upset with MAJESTIC EAGLE over likely favorite RIVER BOYNE. This race came up void of pace, the scenario suits MAJESTIC EAGLE. His fourth in the G2 Del Mar Derby two months ago was actually okay. He pulled hard, lost ground, and lost his punch late. Now he shows up in a race with no speed; the last time Mike Smith rode ‘EAGLE the result was a gate-to-wire maiden win on this course at this trip. If he makes the lead, he could get brave. RIVER BOYNE finished in front of the top choice in the Del Mar Derby, and will be returning to a turf course on which he is 4-for-4. ‘BOYNE also has tactical speed, and if the top choice does not go on with it, then ‘BOYNE could find himself in the role of pacesetter. Due to the tepid pace scenario, the top pair have a tactical advantage. KAZAN lost a ton of ground rallying wide into the Del Mar Derby, but he did well to finish second. He is a better horse this year since he was gelded. HAVE AT IT won a G2 at Belmont that looks better on paper than it looks on video; PUBILIUS SYRUS probably needed the start when unplaced last out; PLATINUM WARRIOR exits the G1 Secretariat, which has turned out to be a borderline negative key race. Eight of the 13 ran back, producing only one second and one third.

NINTH RACE

Based on his highly rated Calbred N1X smasher last out, SURFING STAR should be tough to beat moving up a notch to open N1X. ‘STAR was pressured through a fast pace, shook away into the lane and was gone with a big number (93 Beyer). It was a big win by a lightly raced colt. He faces better this time, and carries eight more pounds, but the lightly raced Bruce Headley trainee appears up to the challenge. LONGDEN merely ran around the track in his comeback/first start as a gelding. It was his first start in five months, he ran like a horse that needed a start. He ran faster early this year, worked well since, and should take a big step forward second start back. PLEASANT D’ORO put it all together last out with an okay maiden win. He also ha trained well since his confidence-building win, and has a right to continue his upward pattern. KYLEMORE was a vet scratch Oct. 5, but returned to work well. He has improved for his new trainer. MAJOR CABBIE was parked wide last time and finishing last in a throwout race. He also is lightly raced and can improve at a big price.

TENTH RACE

A difficult race ends the pick six, maiden 2-year-olds at a mile on turf. It is a good spot for Florida shipper FARQUHAR. His fifth-place debut at Gulfstream Park was not bad. He raced greenly early, lacked speed, picked up steam on the far turn, cut the corner into the lane, squeezed through a tight spot inside and finished okay. The addition of blinkers might improve his focus, he also gets Lasix for his California debut. FARQUHAR is a sibling to a G3 turf winner (Northern Passion), and can post a minor upset second time out. NEPTUNE’S STORM switched to turf and ran well last out. He finished with run along the inside, and missed by only three and a half. Gelded since, the improving 2yo might be the best finisher. SPEAKEROFTHEHOUSE raced evenly in the same race; this is his second start. DYF surrendered after setting the pace last out in his first turf route. First-time starter LEADER OF MEN is a War Front sibling to G1 winners Hoppertunity and Executiveprivilege. That is a wrap for the Santa Anita autumn meet. Opening day of the Del Mar Fall Racing Festival is Friday.