ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, ALL UNDER CONTROL

FIRST RACE

MORE MAGIC is pure speed and draws inside which could mean a decent trip. Current form looks OFF but that is why we picked her as these types often pay well. This is her best distance. Wire please. WESTERN MAID has some decent figs and drops in class. Yet to try this dirt but she does have a couple of works. Her ability to pass runners could come in handy in this spot. PRIVY gets a change of scenery, is versatile, and is working locally.

SECOND RACE

SPOON BOSS just missed when trying this dirt for the first time. He got a Beyer top for that try. What if he is a horse for course before anyone knows it? The leading rider gets a leg up. This horse has hit the board in two of three tries at this distance. The lone knock is this rail draw going 6 1/2 furlongs. PEACOCK COWBOY has good speed and adds a full furlong today. Main pace foe is the 5 and notice they were only a head apart at the first call in their common race. Once again this gelding draws inside of the other speed. For a Diodoro horse this gelding doesn’t get much play. Weird. SIR KOWBOY is a speed horse that adds a full furlong today. Form cycle hints at better as this guy goes third off the layoff. Lone distance try was poor but also a while ago.

THIRD RACE

GOLDEN CHARIOT finished third when last seen going a flat mile and it was against better at Cby. Even sprint tries of late bode well for today’s added distance. New barn is 2 for 8 off the claim. Corbett and the rail can’t hurt. DOROTHY ROSE BLANC HE is the only entrant to have won at today’s distance. This mare was stuck on the rail in her most recent and she promptly broke second to last. We think she shows some speed in this spot. NANG NOI missed the board in her only try at a flat mile. Her distance breeding isn’t so hot. Current form is solid though. Penchant for less is easy to see.

FOURTH RACE

DUTCH MAMA is by a 8% debut turf sire. Her dam

never tried the sod. All 3 sibs won on the grass with two having won their debuts. Two have beaten winners on the grass. This filly broke her maiden on the local dirt so she is comfortable here. This barn is 11% on the grass. We are expecting a big price. BONITA ANNIE tried stakes foes in her only two turf starts and finished second in one of them. Her turf breeding is solid. STELLA MALONE is the one to beat. Her turf breeding might be the best of the bunch. She goes first off the claim for Shawn Davis who is 0 for 8 with these types. We think she needs one start before we see her best. RUN AWAY FROM ROSE NOT is by a 8% debut turf sire. Her dam missed the board in her only turf start. Two sibs failed to win on the weeds but one did hit the board.

FIFTH RACE

FABRICATION finds a logical spot for trainer Shawn Davis who is 20% with repeating winners. This gelding just ran a Beyer top and it was his first start on this dirt. When Stevens rides for this barn he wins at 33% locally and shows a flat bet profit. MAJOR COUNCIL exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 71 and 63. This gelding won when last seen returning off a layoff and did so at today’s distance at Retama only three back. COLD HARD LUCK has some speed and draws inside. He likes this distance and is 5-1-2-1 when doing so.

SIXTH RACE

ALL UNDER CONTROL ran great the last three times he ran on this sod. That isn’t surprising as his turf breeding is quite good. He goes second time with his new barn and they are a very great 35% on the sod. They often use Civaci. TON EIGHTY was getting good on this turf course at the end of the meet. Why can’t he pick up where he left off? Works are perfectly spaced and fast. He is proven on this sod and has good turf breeding. Alas, his new barn is only 0 for 5 on the grass. Still, we like their confident placing. UNION RICHES ran well in his last four turf starts at Cby. He has some tactical speed and comes in fresh all from the 3 hole so a good trip can be had. Lone local grass start was disappointing though. CROSS CREEK is by a 6% debut turf sire. His dam went 15-3-0-2 for 130K on the green. Two turf sibs failed to hit the board.

SEVENTH RACE

As we get later into the meet it is time for the first time starters to show up. CHEROKEE LOUISE is by a 21% debut sire. Her dam was un-raced. All 3 sibs won with 1 having beat winners (7-2-1-2 for 12K). Lots and lots of works. SATTA is by a 10% debut sire. Her dam went 11-2-1-2 for 42K. Lone sib is 33-4-3-3 for 45K. Works are well spaced. Both first time starters debut with Lasix. WESTERN MONGOLIA has the best figs and is shipping in from SoCal. Why try five furlongs for this? Not sure the price will entice.

EIGHTH RACE

R H SMOAKEM tried everything in Minnesota (Cby) but nothing worked. Then he comes here and wins nicely with Arrieta up. Oh, he got a Beyer top of 73. Do connections want another dirt sprint .... nope. They want another shot going two turns on the turf. What if this gelding just hated Cby? We like that he has a recent work. SAND HARBOR does have some upside. His tries earlier this year were both quite good. He figures to have matured since last seen way back in February. We know he can fire fresh as he did so in his debut. Alas, he loses Arrieta to the Diodoro runner. CIRCUS ACT got some nice figs in his only two turf tries and they came going short at Del Mar. This is his first try around two turns. The rail draw can’t hurt. CHECKS IN THE MAIL is by a 14% debut sire and a 16% debut turf sire. His dam went 16-4-4-1 for 59K (6-1-1-1 on the grass for 17K). This is dam’s first foal. Connections find an ambitious spot for debut.