ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, VENEZUELAN FOREVER

FIRST RACE

In a puzzle, we’ll go with AMERICAN JAK who romped in the slop in her second start. The Beyer came up pretty light, but her breeding suggests she should improve going around two turns. Her trainer is also winning races at a ridiculous rate this year. On the other hand, COUNTRY GIRL SHIRL, who owns the best Beyer, which came in her last start, is suspect at the distance. HI HI HOLLY moves back to dirt after being overmatched on the Our Dear Peggy. She can stalk and there probably will be speed coming back to her.

SECOND RACE

VINCERO looks pretty tough in this $25K conditional claimer. He was favored and won at this level in his first start for Joseph and he is a winner at the distance so he should be fine with the extra furlong. FORTUNE COOKIE is the winner if he can regain the form he had earlier this year. However, he took a break following a strong race and it wasn’t encouraging that he didn’t run a jump in his comeback race. He did come back with a solid work, though. Tough call. ANIMUS won the last time he ran on dirt and shouldn’t mind the surface switch after not firing in his latest at Churchill.

THIRD RACE

LADY PLAYER should be rolling late in a race where speed will be coming back to her. She earned her career-best Beyer in her first try on this track going 7 furlongs and shouldn’t mind the extra distance she gets to work with here. DIVINE

DIVA took them a long way going this distance two back but couldn’t keep up to a faster pace in the same race the top pick exits. She could be tough to reel in if she gets the jump on VIDA TROPICAL who will likely show more speed with blinkers going on for the first time. VIDA TROPICAL ran an improved race in her latest, but there are mostly sprinters on her dam’s side of the family and seems suspect going this far.

FOURTH RACE

VENEZUELAN FOREVER was coming off a layoff when he got his nonwinners of two in impressive fashion and appears primed for another big effort coming off the bench. Lopez attracted and in 201718 he’s won with 46% of his mounts from Joseph. SILENT SOFIA is coming off a couple of solid efforts in Indiana and should be forwardly placed in a race that doesn’t have a lot of speed. SISTER DRAMA blew the start and was finishing with a rush in her latest at this level. Not really sure she wants to go this far, but that was a better effort than it looks on paper and she could get up in time to spice up the exotics. ALONG THE TRAIL should also be rolling late.

FIFTH RACE

ROYALTY SALVATORE looked like a winner when he took over the lead at the top of the stretch but hung late going 7 furlongs in his latest at this level. He shouldn’t mind the cutback in distance and should get a nice trip sitting just off REAL FAST MUSIC who looks like the one they will have to run down. REAL FAST MUSIC set the pace and came back to edge the top pick for fourth when he took the plunge to this level last time and could take them a long way if he clears early. MR. MORNINGSTAR might want more distance, but he rallied to win his latest and should have speed coming back to him.

SIXTH RACE

BLUE LUTE is perfect in two starts for Maker and the 82 Beyer Speed Figures he received for his wins at Kentucky Downs and Keeneland stand out. He should get a nice trip either on the lead or stalking SALSA JACK. Jack chased a fast pace and tired late when he was favored at this level in a race washed off the turf. The versatile 3—year-old fired bullets in his last two works and he is capable rain or shine. AMBASSADOR JIM didn’t fire in the slop in the same race Salsa Jack exits but he came back with a better effort when he rallied to finish second on turf and could get a nice setup if the top two hook up early.

SEVENTH RACE

TAKE YOUR PLACE was coming off a layoff when he finished second in the slop behind the multiple stakes winner Quijote, and with plenty of potential speed in the field he should get the right kind of trip in his second start back. BELLE TAPISSERIE dueled and won his latest race at this distance and the other time he tried 7 furlongs he was the runner-up to National Flag who won the Grade 3 Bay Shore in his next start. He could be gone if he breaks on top but there is other speed in the field most notably the Grade 2 winner Conquest Big E who is off form but has been freshened for this. RED CRESCENT might note have cared for the sloppy conditions when he was favored in the same race the top pick exits, and could make a big impact if he gets to hear his feet rattle.

EIGHTH RACE

GIA LIA JOE is on the improve and, while it is never easy facing winners the first time, she might be able to take them all the way. The horse she has to beat, INSIDE TRIP, has lost as the chalk in her last three starts so is hard to trust. However, she is coming off another decent effort and may have found the right spot to get over the top. SOLDIERS PRIDE also lost as the chalk in her latest but she hung late after making a wide move on the second turn. She is a winner at the distance so the added yardage shouldn’t be a concern, and with the right kind of trip could win what appears to be a wide-open race.