ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, FACE IT

FIRST RACE

FACE IT raced greenly first time out in a race she appeared to need then steadied a bit early in her second start, before settling for 3rd behind favored Golden Award and Our Circle of Love, who returned to win here on opening weekend with a 91 Beyer; has plenty of pedigree to stretch out being a half to It’s Tricky. PERSPICACIOUS made her first two starts at Monmouth and settled for 2nd both times behind dominant front-running winners; stretches out from a nice outside draw. ACTING CHIPPER stretched to this distance off a layoff for her second start and finished a no threat 3rd behind 2:5 favorite Free Kitty, who was making her 15th career start; well-bred filly has to do better but her experience over the distance helps.

SECOND RACE

TIGALALU contested a solid pace and prevailed before weakening late and getting run down by the closing Indy Union when cut back a bit last time; distance remains a question but she appears to be the best speed in this matchup. OUT OF TROUBLE earned a strong 86 Beyer when rained off the turf and crushing a field of grass horses over this distance at Saratoga at the end of July; has enough speed to stay close and that race makes her tough, especially with the chance of wet weather forecast for early in the week. NAPLES LEGACY was on a tough stretch out from 5.5 furlongs when getting run down over this trip two starts back in another race that was originally scheduled for turf; overall form suggests that she is switching back to her best surface after failing to make a serious run on turf most recently.

THIRD RACE

ANALYZE THE ODDS had a perfect setup when rallying from last to upset the Mike Lee back in May, but he has actually backed that race up well in his three subsequent starts, all of them over longer distances over which he struggles, and two of those in stakes company; turns back on the drop for trainer off to a good start at the meet. REGAL QUALITY was just up over a one-turn mile two back at Laurel and he had no chance after a slow start when cut back to this distance at Belmont last time, where he faced his talented stablemate Life’s a Parlay (94 Beyer); figures tough taking this class drop. SWIPING DAN returned from a layoff an improved horse while going back to back at Monmouth while running the two fastest races of his life, and he didn’t run that poorly last time when forced to chase over a shorter distance following a layoff; needs his best vs. this crew. REED KAN may be the horse to beat once again after taking his last two starts with 90+ Beyers, but he was a bit of question mark last time while cutting in half off a dominant win, and he now has to keep it going off the claim away from top connections.

FOURTH RACE

CALL WIL has taken to sprinting since getting a turn back last summer, winning three times, including both starts vs. straight claimers for his prior trainer; can improve second off the layoff for his high-percentage trainer and he has run well in NY in the past. CANARSIE KID back down to the level of his strong effort over a longer sprint distance two starts back after doing his best to no avail vs. the streaking Outrageous Bet last time; 7yo has good speed but he has been effective from a stalking position lately, which gives his rider options. BLACKJACK BABY was no factor behind CANARSIE KID at this level last time but he has much better back races to get to for his underrated trainer, and that distance may have been too far for him last time, anyway; goes a more appropriate distance this time and would likely appreciate firmer turf.

FIFTH RACE

BURKEY’S BABE returned from a layoff to show speed in an off the turf event before tiring in the stretch to settle for 3rd; 4yo filly has had trouble putting races together but she has speed from the outside and lands in a spot here where her best race makes her tough. MONTANA SKEP-

TIC debuted for this claiming tag at Belmont last month and was no factor after racing held up in the early stages and then trying a run around the turn before tiring late; eligible to improve second time out while adding Lasix, which he will obviously have to do. JORDY’S READY is already 0-7 at this level dating back to February, but she has hit the board in three of those races and she enters this race with figures that make her competitive, unless someone can find a way to improve.

SIXTH RACE

VIP NATION was last seen taking part in a fast and contested pace and tiring over yielding ground at Saratoga; underrated turf horse enters right back at the same level off the claim and doesn’t have to be so aggressively ridden to be effective. ARCH OF TROY made two starts at this level at Saratoga and settled for second-best both times while facing better horses and running races that would make her tough here; will give her one more chance after getting rained off last time. WISH UPON has a long layoff to overcome but she was improving when last seen around this time last year and was dominant posting that top figure win over this turf course while setting a solid pace.

SEVENTH RACE

GETOFFMYBACK was in solid form here earlier in the year and he came up with one of his best career efforts off the claim for this trainer back in July while taking a bit of a class drop; has been out of town since racing over either turf or wet tracks while being protected from being claimed and ships back in in a race where his running style can be effective. BITUMEN was no factor behind front-running The Red Dude at this level last time but he had been racing on good form all summer prior to that; closer needs some pace to develop in front of him as he goers off the as an apparent new gelding. HELOOKSTHEPART also a closer and taking a big drop in class for his second start off the Diodoro re-claim; he has the best back races to get to and he compliments his speedy stablemate very well but his recent form has not been his best.

EIGHTH RACE

DREAM PASSAGE has won three of her last four sprinting on turf, and she ran well enough to win in this condition last time after getting filtered out to the back of that field early and winding up in a tough spot last through the turn, before finishing gamely behind the talented Hannah’s Smile who had the jump; difficult post but she’s tough if holding her form. SPA TREATMENT was unlucky while finishing ahead of several of these rivals in this condition last time, as she was stuck wide throughout the running from her outside draw and was outfinished late by a rival who has a perfect trip down inside; 4yo filly in a maiden on turf but she has been unlucky more than once and is better than the record makes her look. HOLLYWOOD CAT sat a perfect trip and ran to the lead in the stretch before getting outfinished by SPA TREATMENT and the eventual winner of that race late after moving off the better inside paths; versatile filly is a threat right back with a similar effort.

NINTH RACE

CURLIN’S LEGACY takes the drop after racing against a strong inside track when making no impact back on dirt last time; had no chance in his most recent turf start while off the pace in a race dominated up close and he has run well enough to be tough in a spot like this in each of his races over this surface. PACKED HOUSE was a big favorite when dropped to this level last time but took pressure on the lead and gave way in the stretch to get outfinished by a couple of today’s rivals; tries again. KOALA BEAR may be the right new face to this group as he ships in to make his turf debut on the drop; lone start nd so far came sprinting at Presque Isle and he was bumped hard at the start of that race, before making a wide run around the turn and racing on late without threat.