ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, MARENGO ROAD

FIRST RACE

MAGICIAN’S VANITY’s main draw-back is her extreme reluctance to win races. Lots of speed entered in this MD-bred turf allowance and perhaps if her run is held back as late as possible she can get to the front before she knows what’s happening. CAPUCINE stands solid chance of improving second race back from a break and had little chance against a runaway LRL turf winner last time. EMMA’SDIAMONDDIVA isn’t entered main-track only but sure looks dirt-intended here.

SECOND RACE

UNLUCKY HILLARY is entered for half the most recent claim price paid and comes off a poor performance. All this caps her upside, for sure, but she just needs to approach her baseline to contend with this bunch. Also worth noting the barn has been batting close to .400 the last two months at LRL. MRS. REMBRANDT initially looks like the “logical alternative” until you notice she’s followed every win with a dud - and comes off a win. Wonder if GREASEDLIGHTNING can be as effective around one turn as two.

THIRD RACE

GLANCE has bi-surface capabilities. Public selectors making picks two days in advance at a track where the turf course has been bet all fall love to see that. Her last-start dirt race makes her look the most likely winner on the main track. Turf performance three back might suffice, and two back at MED she was caught wide from outside draw. TAPANISTA strongly hinted in her most recent run that she’ll need turf for any kind of chance. Just draw a line through that last one. Touch of upside. SHE’SLIKETHEWIND down to her lowest level now and those $40K MCLs make her look a solid fit, but races at this level are not really what this barn does.

FOURTH RACE

The K McGee barn has thrown a wide blanket over this vast field. We’ve seen red-flaggy droppers from this barn just boss their easier competition of late, and that could happen again here with COLONEL ANDY. I typically put this type into the “too good to be true” toss bin but having second thoughts with this outfit. And he CA fails to step up, the barn’s other entrant, MAN OF WIREGRASS, looks at least marginally capable, and at a much longer price. TOTALLY UNEXPECTED’s lone career win came at this 5.5-furlong trip, his LRL record encourages, and the price figures long.

FIFTH RACE

Off turf, off turf, and off turf - but a dark X through VIRGINIA FABLE’s last three starts. Races 4, 5, and 6 back all show turf performances good enough to win this. PASS A MENTO, the pick for dirt, would look more like a regression candidate coming off a career-best performance had that performance not come close to seven weeks ago. Also note she’s entered under starter conditions here, a good sign. FLYINGONTHEGROUND was given a freshening following six starts in five months and has a turf-sprint win over the Laurel course.

SIXTH RACE

Would get a fairer price on LEZENDARY where she trained by Roddy Rudriguez rather than Rudy Rodriguez, but there’s a chance at fair odds with so many wet-track running lines perhaps obscuring her form. In the Cicada last March she thumped Shamrock Rose - you know, the horse that just won the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint? The next four are three sloppy-track starts and the $150K Jersey Girl, where she got hooked and cooked. I could buy the argument she’s not getting back to her best form, but in this group and with a chance to be controlling inside speed, will hope for a square price. NO PICNIC loved the cut-back Oct. 2 with a big win, and while I doubt she can do much better than that, after four straight races at or about this level, suppose there’s some solidity here. DEEP RED gets the 7f trip and can improve off her last-start comeback run - to some extent. Ceiling not all that high.

SEVENTH RACE

PETTICOATSNPISTOLS’s only race at this one-turn-

mile trip produced her only win - and it was a romp. Rail-drawn going three-quarters last time and should do sufficiently better than that under more favorable circumstances here to beat a soft field. CORVID edged the top pick in their common last start, but all the positive signs seem to point to ‘pistols now. First Lasix for LADY SCHOLAR, who might have found her level all the way at the bottom. Last-out maiden win did come around two turns and we have no real idea how she’ll handle this one-bend mile.

EIGHTH RACE

Combination of blinkers added and a reasonable class drop could do the trick for MARENGO ROAD. Cuts back from a pair of longer two-turn races and suspect that will be to good effect. GENERAL DOWNS another blinkers-on horse, but he’s worn the hood before, and I’ll treat him as a hanging type until he can show me otherwise. TIZ HE THE ONE is facing considerably stronger competition than he did in a last-out win, and does so with a bad draw, but he appears to have some upside in just second start for this barn.

NINTH RACE

ARRIVE IN STYLE doesn’t seem to really stay two turns while in his 6f tries he appears to have been out-quicked to some extent. Never tried this oneturn mile configuration - and should like it. Down to lowest level, but not in an obviously negative way. GLENGAR was fourth last out in a local MSW - but there were only six in the race. Worked back since than and might have a legitimately forwardmoving line now. BOURBON STREAK blinkers on in his first start for a tag and was third behind Glengar in only dirt race - for whatever that’s worth.