ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, XIROMA

FIRST RACE

WINDJAMMER showed an affinity for this course in her first start here and considering at Saratoga she lost by a head to Osare, who won a $300K stakes at Kentucky Downs two starts later, she should be able to handle the jump into a $16K n2L. SCAT GAL may not have cared for the yielding conditions in her latest at Belmont but she has been working well since and drops to a new low for Stidham who has solid numbers in all the relevant categories. WINNING GAME finished behind RUN BLONDIE RUN last time but she got stuck behind horses when it appeared she might make a big impact. RUN BLONDIE RUN ran a big race coming off a layoff, though, and is eligible to improve in her second start back.

SECOND RACE

MY PEOPLE SING stumbled badly leaving the starting gate when favored at this level in his first start in three months. He could be tough to handle with a better break in his second start back. GRAN PARAISO showed speed in both of his starts and won’t mind the cutback in distance after coming up empty going longer in his first try on turf. Barboza can have them ready to roll coming off this kind of layoff and he has strong numbers with horses moving from turf to dirt. GEM JUAN finished in front of the top pick last time and his Beyer Speed Figures improved in his last two. He has had a lot of chances, though.

THIRD RACE

GOLDEN ALINA romped in the slop in her last two and if she can run as well on what should be a fast track she will be tough to handle. She goes from one good trainer to another with the claim and she gets in light with Maragh riding. NOTHINS FREE can stalk and should get a nice trip stalking what figures to be a fast and contested pace. SPECIALCNSYDRATION is better on turf but she has performed okay running on dirt and figures to move forward in her second start back. The shape of the race should also work for her. DERBY DAY DARLING looked good winning her latest but she will have to deal with other speed, most notably the top pick.

FOURTH RACE

In a wide-open race we’ll go with R BOY BODE who showed decent speed in both of his races on dirt and being by Kantharos there is a good chance he will handle the surface switch. He could also improve as a first time gelding. Plus, Lopez had other options and lands here. TWISTED LICORICE is also by a good turf sire, ran a big race in his debut, and has worked well since he didn’t fire in his second start in a race that has produced three next-out winners. REAGAN’S HEART veered out at the start in his latest and then faded after showing some speed. Toss the race and he’s been right there in his last three including a runner-up finish at this level in his only try on turf. MONEY COME runs for a tag the first time and is the first foal out of a mare who won 4 races on turf. His sire is just 3 for 51 with horses trying turf the first time, though

FIFTH RACE

LA LEYENDA is stepping up in price but this came up pretty weak and he easily owns the best lastrace Beyer Speed Figure. He should also get a nice trip from a forward position. Toss BRAG DUDE’S last race. He hopped at the start and then chased the pace while going very wide on the first turn in a race dominated by closers. If he can run as well as he did on turf two back he could be the winner. MISTER SENSE ran an improved race coming off a lengthy layoff in the same race BRAG DUDE exits and he did run well on dirt when he debuted at Delaware last year.

SIXTH RACE

In a race where contention runs deep it might be worth taking a shot with AREYOUTALKINGTOME. He is making his first start for Klassen who since 2015 he is 6 for 8 with a $12.82 ROI with claimed horses running back the first time. BOLD DADDY will appreciate the easier company with the drop

into a conditional claimer for the first time and should move forward in his second start back. He made a nice middle move but lost a lot of momentum in his comeback race so it was a better performance than it looks on paper. DON’T OVER LOOK is an obvious contender after winning a n2L or 3-year-olds race for the same price at Gulfstream. GLOBAL ENTRY will appreciate being back on turf and the 5-time winner is certainly capable of winning this if he shows up with his best stuff.

SEVENTH RACE

XIROMA has been knocking on the door and he is coming off another solid effort where he edged DUKE OF MIAMI in a $16K n2L in his latest. He could get over the top while making his first start for Joseph who has strong numbers with claimed horses running back the first time. The shape of the race should also work for him. DUKE OF MIAMI is trending in the right direction and could get a nice trip stalking what figures to be an honest and contested pace. SUB FACTUM will be among the early leaders and he has had a couple of decent works since he finished third just behind DUKE OF MIAMI on Sept. 16.

EIGHTH RACE

After winning back-to-back races MRS. CREWS was pretty much done when she got bumped and went wide around the first turn in the $400K My Dear Girl. She’s had a couple of decent interim works and will appreciate the easier company as well as the move back to a sprint. FIRST TIME PROUD also faded in the My Dear Girl but she sure looked good winning a $35K starter optionalclaimer in her previous start. MIDTOWN ROSE, who finished second as the heavy chalk to FIRST TIME PROUD two back, will appreciate the move back to dirt and the substantially easier company. The winner of her latest, Bulletin, repeated in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. SKY RUN is a possibility based on the Zerpa’s strong numbers with newly claimed horses.

NINTH RACE

CONISTON almost took them all the way but was caught by Remember the Maine who just missed in a $25K conditional claimer in his next start. He looks like the main speed again and could be tough to reel in if he breaks alertly with Lopez keeping the faith. His trainer is also winning races at a 30% clip at the meet. VICTOR LOUNGE romped over a yielding track in a $40K maiden claimer at Belmont two back and is eligible to move forward in his second start here. He also comes out of a live barn but it is Interesting to see Lopez bail to ride the top pick. BETA MAX improved in his first start over this course and he wouldn’t be the first horse to thrive over this surface.