ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, SUPER PATRIOT

FIRST RACE

Del Mar opening day, 12:30 first post time. MY FARMER returns to the racing surface on which he won two of three starts; he could get a cozy trip tucked right behind the speed. Claimed from a runner-up finish for $12.5k, he double-jumps to $20k for new trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Frontrunner PLUM DANDY is not the only speed in this mile race, but he might be the speed of the speed. He blasted N3L claiming rivals two back on a fast pace, then was overmatched last time in an open $32k claiming race. He led to the furlong pole before he faded. With a two-level class drop, he is a threat to lead wire to wire despite the presence of other speed. CLEAR THE MINE was once good enough; he drops two levels. PAPA TURF and ELWOOD J add more speed to the field.

SECOND RACE

The inside post might be a challenge for ESKENFORADRINK in this seven-furlong maiden-20, but her sharp form stamps her the logical choice despite the draw. Runner-up three straight, she shortens from one mile and is quick enough to make the lead if she wants. In the three+ years since dirt was reinstalled at Del Mar, the inside post at seven furlongs is 12-for-94. The 12 percent win rate is slightly above average. IRISH LASSIE was in tough last time in a Cal-bred maiden-claiming race; her runner-up finish on this track three back going one mile would put her in the hunt. SWEET CONGRATS enters with the highest recent speed figures, but those races all were on turf. Her dirt form remains uncertain. TRAPPIZA will be running late.

THIRD RACE

SUPER PATRIOT can win this Cal-bred N1X turf mile if she reproduces her most-recent starter allowance win. She won by more than two lengths with a solid final quarter-mile in 23.96 seconds. Although she required 11 starts to finally win a maiden race, she has won two of her last three starts and ran well her only start on the Del Mar turf in summer. TAPITHA BONITA ran okay last time, runner-up on dirt with the best figure of her career. However, she might be better on this surface. ‘BONITA improved since being claimed by Bill Spawr two back; she might be the speed of the field. SPEAKERS drops from open N1X to run for the optional $20k claim tag vs. state-bred company. She won this condition in spring and will roll late. MARJORIE E figures off her starter allowance victory on this course in summer. She might be ranked too low by this handicapper.

FOURTH RACE

EASY SHOT drops from maiden special-weight to maiden-100; he ran well both starts at Del Mar during summer. Although he was a vet scratch Oct. 6 from a maiden-75, he has continued to work regularly and should fire his best shot first start back. TROJAN MAGIC is a Bob Baffert-trained debut 2-year-old, a category in which Baffert this year is an unbelievable 16-for-22. The difference is that none of those 16 debut juveniles ran for a claim tag; TROJAN MAGIC debuts for $100k. Nonetheless, he should come out firing. MANHATTAN UP chased a fast pace and finished a creditable third in his debut last month vs. similar. He has the top figure (67 Beyer) in the field. MONTANA MOON makes his debut for Mick Ruis and assistant trainer Shelbe Ruis, who occasionally pop with first-time starters. The Malibu Moon colt is the first foal from a graded winner that won 12 of 32.

FIFTH RACE

A convincing maiden special-weight win by TAKE A LEAP stamps her the one to beat in this starter allowance turf mile. ‘LEAP is the only entrant that won a special-weight; every other entrant won maiden-claiming races. ‘LEAP is eligible to this because she ran for a $40k tag in her debut early this year. A repeat of her last-out victory would be tough to beat. LIL BIT DANGEROUS has not had the greatest of trips lately. She was wide from post 10 last out, she had traffic trouble finishing second two back. Better post this time, and a rider switch. TRUST FUND KITTY ran the best race of her career last out, runner-up behind race-3 selection Super Patriot. Outside post is a challenge, but she will drop back early and rally late. Perhaps the outside post is not such a big deal in her case.

A runner-up effort last out by BIG BARREL, more than three lengths clear of third, makes him the one to beat in this sprint for Cal-bred maidens. Drawn outside, with speed to stay in contact, he is sitting on a win. RED ENVELOPE misfired last time as the favorite, but he might not have liked being positioned inside and behind rivals in that turf route. He returns to a sprint, ran well on this dirt surface in summer, and has speed. CLYDE’S PRIDE, runner-up all three starts early this year, returns from a layoff of more than four months with a new trainer (Hollendorfer) while trying a dirt sprint for the first time. His three previous starts were turf routes. First-time starter DUBNATION might be ranked too low. His trainer can pop with first-time starters; DUBNATION is a sibling to the five-time stakes winner Smokey Image.

SEVENTH RACE

Tough outside post for SWEET CHARITY, who leaves from post 10 in this restricted stakes turf mile for fillies and mares. This is her first start since February; she runs well fresh and her highly rated N2X win early this year might (mile turf, post 10) might be good enough. QUEBEC followed her Del Mar summer N2X win with a sharp second in a stakes race that was flattered when the winner Fahan Mura returned to finish second in a Grade 2. WAY TO VERSAILLES finished third behind QUEBEC while making her first start since late July and first start in California. Improvement possible second start back. PSYCHO SISTER is fast, and back with fillies and mares after setting the pace and tiring to seventh in the G2 City of Hope Mile. ‘SISTER could be the speed of the field.

EIGHTH RACE

NORWEGIAN will start as one of the most heavily fancied runners on the card, for good reason. She is simply the fastest in this maiden-claiming sprint for 2yo fillies. Last time out she finished second at odds-on, while more than five lengths clear of third at the wire. She faces a modest cast and should be tough to beat. First-time starter KATE’S PRINCESS has a modest work tab for her career debut, but trainer Craig Dollase has always been effective with first-time starters. ‘PRINCESS is the first foal from a dam that won six races. ORCA drops from maiden special-weight to maiden-claiming for the second start of her career.