ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, COLTANDMISSISSIPPI

FIRST RACE

TRACI’S GIRL has failed to last in first two starts on turf now switches to dirt with speed to face a nondescript field of maidens that includes three first time starters; Baker 30% switching from turf to dirt with sprinters over the past five years ($2.94 ROI), 24% with maidens in that sample ($3.08 ROI). MARY’S GIRL the only other runner with experience in the field and she has hot the board without making herself a real threat in all three starts so far; has caught two sloppy tracks in her first three starts. SEPTEMBER GURL ships in from Parx with a spotty work tab to make her debut for a high-percentage trainer; drew well on the outside.

SECOND RACE

COLTANDMISSISSIPPI was a game winner when dropped in class on turf two starts back and he was best despite just getting outfinished late last time after making an aggressive early move to the lead in a race that ultimately went to closers; slight drop second off the claim. HILLS POND has finished behind COLTANDMISSISSIPPI in his last two starts; raced wide and was outfinished over yielding ground two back, and he was part of that contested pace before giving way last time. PHONE FUNKY MUNKY caught traffic at a crucial point when defeated by the top one three starts back, but he has the right trip into that contested pace in his next start and was just outfinished by the winner; drops back down in class after failing to impact allowance rivals last time.

THIRD RACE

KLICKITAT debuted on turf and looked green early while losing position, before rallying in the stretch behind horses; half to the good dirt horse Evaluator switches over for his second start. WOODBURY faced a couple of good fields in his first two career starts then chased from the outside on a day when the rail was the place to be most recently; bred to stretch out being out of a dam who was a stakes winner routing on dirt and a half to three route winners. TAPTAPTAP chased a sharp winner early in his sprint debut then stretched out on turf and was part of a fast pace in a race that was run at the incorrect distance before giving way; turf to dirt as a new gelding off the short layoff for his new trainer.

FOURTH RACE

MY VICTORIA ROSE was a work in progress early on but appeared to benefit from a layoff when returned on turf with a much-improved effort vs. a good field back in June; cuts back in the drop after stretching out to no avail in another tough spot at Saratoga. LADY CAMILLE ran well with a tough wide trip in her turf debut first time out this year then was defeated as the favorite in her next two starts, one of those routing; cut back and was gamely second-best to a class-dropping winner at this level last time. RECONSIDER IT has had the most chances and often settles at the end but she is at her best sprinting on turf, something that she hasn’t always concentrated on; one more chance after having each of her last two starts rained off.

FIFTH RACE

FULL OF RUN hasn’t won since scoring impressively on debut as a 2yo, which led to his getting a shot in the Grade 1 Champagne in his second career start; closing sprinter needs some pace but he is getting some needed class relief in this spot. ALTESINO can be inconsistent but has had some trouble along the way and has run some races that would make him tough in a spot like this; dropped to this level at Belmont last month and was held up behind horses early behind a front-running winner, before getting outfinished late. RAGNAR LOTHBROK lightly-raced with improving figures, but in a position where he has to come forward again to be competitive; sat a perfect trip when breaking his maiden two starts back then stepped into a tougher spot in his next start and wound up chasing a fast pace over a mile.

SIXTH RACE

AZM a $1.1 million weanling buy making a belated

debut at the end of her 3yo season but she does so in a nondescript field for a top trainer and she is bred to be a runner being the first foal from the top turf mare Marketing Mix, who made over $2 million in her career while winning multiple Grade 1 races.

STYLISHLY debuted sprinting over yielding ground at Saratoga and chased wide before weakening in the stretch; gets to route on turf for the first time after getting rained off last time. MERGER ARBITRAGE has proven to be no great shakes after eight career starts but she was improving late last year and did run the fastest race of her life over this turf course prior to the layoff; has had two of her three starts as a 4yo moved to the main track.

SEVENTH RACE

MCERIN dropped in for a tag and crushed a field with a big figure two starts back at Saratoga; blew clear on a good pace last time but appeared to pay the price over testing ground and was run over late by an in-form Outrageous Bet, who came right back to win again while up in class. CANARSIE KID came up just short over a longer sprint distance two starts back then cut back a bit and stalked the pace before making the lead in the stretch, only to be closed down by the aforementioned Outrageous Bet late; ability to track the pace a benefit to him in this spot, which is not lacking for speed. FIXED POINT got clear on the lead and earned a new top figure in his first start off the layoff and first off the claim at Saratoga; was forced to sit off the speed of MCERIN last time but raced on gamely in the stretch to finish 3rd.

EIGHTH RACE

TIMBER GHOST disappointed in his first two starts early in the year at Gulfstream after taking money but he lived up to that potential in his first start back from the layoff, then backed that race up well last time while getting control of a modest pace on a day when speed was good at Belmont; wellbred colt has looked good but is facing some hardhitting veterans in this spot and is unlikely to be able to make the lead. PETE’S PLAY CALL and LIFE IN SHAMBLES raced over that same speed-favoring track a few races ahead of TIMBER GHOST most recently; PETE’S PLAY CALL sat just off the pace and couldn’t quite get to pace-pressing LIFE IN SHAMBLES late but he has the races to turn the tables this time, including a career-best 104 Beyer earned over this track last November.

NINTH RACE

T LOVES A FIGHT dropping off the trainer change after facing much tougher while being limited to only three starts so far this year; class drop not much of a concern for 4yo gelding who started out in claiming races and he exits tough chance try chasing a fast pace last time at Saratoga. CERRETALTO clearly has issues having managed just two starts this year and having to be scratched by the vet both before and after his most recent start on Travers Day, but he is talented when he is right and he likes this track, over which he went back to back earlier this year. BENEVOLENCE took advantage of a fast pace when closing to win going away in the slop last time, but he lands in another spot here where he projects to have plenty of pace in front of him. ARTHUR’S HOPE may not be good enough but he has faced some tough competition since winning his first stateside start back in May and he lost all chance at the start last time.