ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, NIKKI’S CAUSE FIRST RACE

ICE SHOW has yet to race on turf, but has the look of a horse that should like a grass sprint. Her first two races came on the synthetic at Presque Isle, and she won an off-the-grass race here at Gulfstream Park West Nov. 1. Plenty of speed and ascending Beyers, though moving up in class. BARBADOS KITTEN, on the other hand, is established on turf. The issue with her is that she has been reluctant to win. She is 17-1-10-0 on grass and in light of that record, is fittingly the second pick. MISS LAMBORGHINI sped away from her rivals by 11 lengths last time in an off-the-grass race. Her time was marginally faster than the clocking posted by ICE SHOW on the same card. 10-1-2-2 on turf, compared to 9-3-2-0 on dirt.

SECOND RACE

DELINQUENT owns some of the highest Beyer Speed Figures in the race, coming at or near this one-mile distance. Speedy enough to be prominent and then to pounce. BERNARDIAN is a nicely bred colt, and another that has been competitive in repeated attempts going a mile or so. He just isn’t particularly fast - possessing a top Beyer of 61, compared to a 76 for the top choice. FREEDOM MATTERS looks speedy and dangerous, but rates behind the top pair due to having sprinted in all three of his races. Likely to dictate terms from his inside post.

THIRD RACE

Trainer Jorge Navarro starts an uncoupled duo in this claimer on the grass, and due to his stablemate overshadowing him on last-out form, SINATRA might be a bit overlooked. He figures to drop from his generous 10-1 line, but should offer a degree of value, probably in the 6-1 range. He was freshened after failing to fire when fifth in his latest. He brings back class into this, as well as a stellar 11-for-42 mark on the grass. The speedy ADONIS CREED is the more fancied of the Navarro runners on the morning line, listed at 3-1 odds. He second in an allowance most recently, and though the figure wasn’t flashy, a 66, bear in mind it came over a sloppy track. This horse had previously gone unplaced in a pair of dirt starts. Now back on the grass, over which he is 12-3-2-2. SUPER SPENDER acts like one of the classier runners. The stretch out to two turns is what makes this handicapper a bit cautious. He has long been managed as a five-furlong turf sprinter.

FOURTH RACE

MY POINT EXACTLY was struggling before being dropped into the mid-level claiming ranks this summer. In four races since he has largely been competitive, including when second in his latest for $12,500. Now down a notch to $10,000 company. ARISTTELES was flat in finishing fifth most recently, but if one excuses that race, his prior two races would suggest he can contend here. Just 2 for 28 and therefore likely best used underneath in the gimmicks. Late running BRANDT, yet to run better than fourth in five races since being claimed in August, gets blinkers off and perhaps can take a step forward with the change in equipment. Well suited to a mile and may be able to save ground early from his inside post.

FIFTH RACE

TAKE THE OVER is fittingly spotted for maiden $50,000 after failing to hold the lead when second vs. straight maiden foes at Hawthorne Oct. 11. Two prior efforts resulted in a fourth and an eighth over the Poly at Arlington, though she was at least within a few lengths of the quarter-mile pace in those races. FLAT QUEEN passed a couple rivals to finishing third at Gulfstream Park West Oct. 19,