ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, TRUSTING FRIEND

FIRST RACE

SNIDELY debuted at LRL two back and showed next to nothing, but blinkers combined to some extent with experience really helped last time, and the manner of his 6f run at BEL suggests this one-turn mile might be an even better fit. OFFERHECANTREFUSE finished third last out at PEN, but A) that was a two-turn mile and B) there were just four others in the race. No value at published odds. TRION WINGS has a trouble line from last and a contending run for this price two back, so the 10-1 would hold some appeal if actually offered.

SECOND RACE

Maybe, as appears plausible from his form, MICROSCALE needs turf for best, but he’s also only had two dirt runs while wearing blinkers, won one of them, and was facing stronger foes than these in the other. Improved last out and if he can sustain something close to that turf form on dirt there’s appeal at something close to published odds. ACCOLADE’s race history lies all over the map but with Lasix back on and blinkers off he delivered a contending run in a similar spot last time, and suspect that’s not far removed from his baseline. UNO DANCER possesses fairly clearly contending form but from here it doesn’t truly match up with something like his 5-2 morning-line odds. MSW win came when lose on lead in short field.

THIRD RACE

Granted her two-race streak came against $5K “B” claimers and, last out, in a watered-down offturf race, but DANCE QUEEN has found a rhythm going to the front in dirt routes and stands a decent chance of getting a clear lead again here - hopefully at a fair price. LADY TERP has won two straight and generally hits hard at or about this level, but three top ones in a row after a long year? Wouldn’t take short odds on that happening. SPICY GIRL RED’s two recent dirt runs both came at one turn and she might prefer two. Fading PRINCESS TIZNOW at a short price since she has no LRL experience.

FOURTH RACE

SELF START with a poor win mark hardly qualifies as a reliable type, but she does have a lot more positional pace than she showed last time and ran especially well considering slow start took her out of typical game. The string of at least mildly contending performances extends a long way back in time and the 5-1 morning-line odds feel fair indeed. STOMP DANCE lost her chance at the start last time but then proceeded to do no running. She’s back to a realistic level now and perhaps is just well meant, but the general assumption is going to be she bounces back to form while it might actually be the case that after hitting a peak for a few months she’s on the way down. Yielding turf last time, wet main track two back - not sure how LACROSTIX handles the sprint trip but there could be hidden form here.

FIFTH RACE

Bunch of turf horses in this $10K maiden-claimer on dirt - plus several more apparently under-qualified win candidates. ANY DARN DAY faced nine foes last time in a $14K - $16K maiden-claimer and is getting considerable class relief here with a chance to make the front. Can find anything more solid than that to go on in this spot. DOCTOR LEO J’s last two at the CT bull ring but debut three back came at LRL for this tag and wasn’t all bad. WHAT A HOOT gives at least the superficial appearance of a horse that needs turf to do any running at all. And yet . . .

SIXTH RACE

MRS. RAMONA G. one of the few horses in this alw / opt claimer carded for turf who looks like she actually has much interest in running on turf. Lightly raced with arrow still pointing up and showed in the Gulfstream rain-off she can at least get over the main track if - as seems quite possible - it comes to that. POLITE PEARL entered main-track-only and fits, but when all the scratch-

ing is said and done (of this comes off) not sure she won’t be facing a little sterner task this time, and probably at an underlaid price. Jury still out on SHE’S STUNNING’s turf ability, though think she might be better than it first appears.

SEVENTH RACE

SARATOGA BOB stayed 9f last time to win highly restricted MD-sired stakes but still think he might best suit races around one turn at this 7f distance or a mile. Has done little wrong all year and came out of the last win well enough to post two interim works for this. CHIEF OF STAFF ran into Mesotherm last time and Mesotherm has recently been running solid LRL sprinters right off their feet. The dud two back shows the somewhat limited ceiling but he gets the 7f well enough and might sneak into the exacta at a square price. DIVINE INTERVENTIO comes off the two best performances of his life and would be running back on 12 days rest, making the 2-1 morning-line price unappetizing.

EIGHTH RACE

On paper this N1X allowance has fall-apart-race written all over it. Even if jocks wanted to take back, a few of these appear to know only one way to run, and that’s to go forward. Trainer C Gonzalez has two entered and though it’s not totally clear, think TRUSTING FRIEND is the one to be taken back to a stalking position. Tabbed on top to capitalize on race flow. COUSIN JIMMY also could get an ideal setup and figures to be overlooked. FORCED is one of the fast ones. Coughed up a clear upperstretch lead last time and wonder if we’ll ever see the peak form from this past spring again.

NINTH RACE

Main-track-only TWIN VALOR gets class relief he needs leaving higher-end allowance races for a $20K claimer. A little more in and out than ideal for a shorter-priced consideration. BALTIC ART, like Twin Valor, is on a slightly concerning drop down to $20K claiming, but he only needs to approach his baseline turf performance to factor if this stays on grass. KING OF ALL MEDIA gets back out to two turns, which he needs, while making third start of form cycle. Price chance on either surface.