ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, ASTOUNDING

FIRST RACE

ALLURED has run pretty well without winning in the first five races of his career including his two starts this year, first when rallying along a good rail off the layoff and most recently, when rallying in the stretch to earn a new top figure; won’t get many more chances but this may be the right spot. PERSONAL TIME was outrun behind ALLURED in his career debut sprinting last October then moved south and improved in his three starts before going to the sidelines; has a layoff to overcome and his lack of speed works against him but fullbrother to Derby winner Orb clearly has some ability. REPLICATOR a half to Grade 1-winning sprinter Starship Truffles, who has posted 14 wins in her career, seven of them routing on dirt; debuts in a short field for a top trainer.

SECOND RACE

ASTOUNDING has managed only three turf starts so far this year, but he has won two of them easily, including that last one with a surprising show of speed, and he was way up against it behind a rated pace in his lone NY start; 6yo is placed at the right level for this and he has run well in both prior starts over Aqueduct turf. BERN’ JAMES BERN has hit the board in all four turf starts off the Maker claim, the last two when settling for second-best with 90+ Beyers; drops back down in class with a versatile running style. MONSTER BEA didn’t fire last time going a bit longer than he prefers in a race that was dominated up front by an in-form Souperfast but though he ran well two back when coming wide to make the lead and just missing an unlucky bob at the end; adds blinkers off the claim for a trainer enjoying a good run in NY - 14 wins and a $2.64 ROI from all starters over the past six months, 9 for 32 on turf in that sample, 28%, $3.96 ROI.

THIRD RACE

DOMAIN has run some okay races but hasn’t panned out for top connections and now takes a significant drop in class into a spot where he looks nearly unbeatable at a short price; Shug doesn’t have the kind of stock that finds him going MSW to MCL, but he is 3 for his last 11 making that move, 27%, $2.61 ROI. SUPPORT OUR CAUSE made the MSW to MCL move two back for Chad Brown and settled for a distance 2nd after contesting the pace, then went longer off the claim here 12 days ago and got dusted by class-dropping Big Muddy (81 Beyer) in an off the turf race; trio of mid-60 Beyers on dirt give him a leg up on the rest. HURACAN 0-27 on the way in but he has outrun his odds on a few recent occasions and has gone long on turf in the past.

FOURTH RACE

IT’S A LOVELY DAY debuted in a short sprint at the end of the Saratoga meet and finished a distance 3rd behind a well-bet firster in Take Me to Hardoon and Sassy Agnes, who returned to win her next two starts in stakes company at Finger Lakes; makes her second start on the drop for a trainer who is 36 for his last 105 (34%) on the MSW to MCL drop ($2.10 ROI). ROSE OF DUBLIN caught a sloppy track when dropped to this level two starts back and wound up contesting the pace before giving way, then cut back and just missed last time; goes off the claim for an underrated trainer from a nice outside post. MARGIE CAT made her lone start at this level two back in a weak field and rallied late for 2nd, then stepped back up and got outrun in the slop last time; back down to the right level.

FIFTH RACE

EMERALD QUALITY was outrun early when back to dirt last month and wound up finishing a distant 3rd behind a blowout winner; most recent dirt start before that one was a convincing win at Finger Lakes when keeping up with the pace, a running style that would play well in this field. SCRIPTED has the speed to get a forward position in this field as she stretches back out off of two sprints; lone career win came over turf but she ran well enough when second-best over this track and trip back in

April. MISS LOYALTY’s maiden win came in slow time over a sloppy track at Monmouth in early September, but she was part of the pace that day before getting clear in the stretch; goes turf to dirt second off the claim.

SIXTH RACE

SWEET TIMING endured a tough trip when unable to get clear to run in her career debut then was entered in the Chelsey Flower for her second start before that race came off the turf; has been stuck on the AE list a couple of times recently, but she deserves another chance when able to get into a race. OPTIMIZATION one of several entered to make her career debut in this spot, and she has been training right along for Chad Brown recently; dam hasn’t dropped much to date but she was a multiple Grade 1 winner on turf in her career. QUEEN MEDB made a promising debut in Ireland over the summer then failed to back that race up despite just missing as a very heavy favorite in her next start; bred to stretch out and she can put her experience to good use as she ships in to make her first start for Chad.

SEVENTH RACE

TAP TAP TAPAROO was a bit headstrong racing in behind horses early last time, then failed to fire after coming clear with a look in midstretch; ran very well in her two other starts sprinting on turf, including that dominant win on the turn back at Saratoga, and deserves another chance. TRANSACTION TAX has appeared to go off form recently but she had run a couple of excellent races on the lead over the summer and she has the kind of speed to make herself dangerous with her good race; has sprinted effectively in the past. GLOSSY rallied too late last time and settled for 3rd while finishing ahead of a couple of her rivals in this spot; good efforts going back to back in her two starts prior to that one and she projects to have some pace in front of her here with TRANSACTION TAX in the field.

EIGHTH RACE

PERIL a wildcard in this spot but one with some dirt pedigree as a sister to Governor Malibu and it’s not like the known quantities in this field are the kind to think of as unbeatable; has shown some ability on turf in her four starts and the distance of this race poses to problems for her. MY WON LOVE facing only a slight step up in class for this after gamely closing down straight claimers over this distance seven days ago; has clearly improved for Rudy and has won each of her last three starts over the main track here. OUT OF ORBIT has had trouble winning races along the way but she earned a couple of figures sprinting over the summer that make her tough here, and she has a difficult trip two back when chasing three-wide off a strong rail; missed the break last time before moving up to track wide and then getting outfinished in the stretch.

NINTH RACE

SALT POND took over readily when back to turf two back and was outfinished late by repeat winner Keota, then went to Laurel and asserted herself on the lead from the start en route to a dominant win; looks like the clear speed once again while logically spotted off that maiden score. FOREVER DAISY was taken back to last behind a front-running winner last time and caught some traffic while rallying gamely late; inconsistent filly has run some races that give her a look here and she can sprint. JO JO’S CANDY wired maidens on debut despite going a bit greenly in that spot then tried tougher over a longer trip in her second start; drops after stumbling at the start when last seen at Saratoga.