ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, HAYDENS HAVOC

FIRST RACE

PRINCIPE CARLO is poised to upset likely favorite TWO FIFTY COUP. If this race unfolds as expected, PRINCIPE CARLO should get a great trip tucked second behind the speed. His maiden win two back was sharp, albeit at Los Alamitos, he was overmatched last time in a stakes at Santa Anita and was listed as a vet scratch from a stakes race Oct. 21. Now he drops in class, is drawn outside his main rival, and can win if the speed backs up. If not, then TWO FIFTY COUP could be gone. He romped last time by more than eight, but that race was contested over a speed-biased track labelled “good,” and his rivals were drab. These are tougher. ‘COUP might wire the field, but his odds will be skewed low based on a bias-aided victory against a suspect cast. IRISH TERRIER shortens from two turns to one, and will rally late. If the top pair burn out, ‘TERRIER could be along in time over a surface that played fair to all styles opening week.

SECOND RACE

DON’T STALK ME figures to start at a short price in this sprint for claiming 3yos. He won last out at this level, ran well all three starts on this track during summer, and is drawn outside. The knock is price; his odds could be low. GRINGO STAR is a legitimate upset candidate, facing an easier bunch of 3yos than the older N3L rivals he met last time. He finished last of six. He drops back into a claiming race for his age group, adds blinkers, and was only a length behind the top choice when they met last month. Furthermore, GRINGO STAR goes second off the claim by Mike Puype. The past five years, Puype is 10-for-33 second off the claim, a 30 percent win rate that produced a $3.08 return for each $2 win bet. COLORMEMONEY gets an easier pace scenario than last time, when he was outfinished by the top choice. ‘MONEY won twice over this track during the summer meet.

THIRD RACE

HAYDENS HAVOC can lead gate to wire as the most probable winner on the card. The 2yo maiden pressed a blazing pace last time in a maiden-75 on dirt, and held second while finishing more than four lengths clear of a next-out winner. Turf is new for ‘HAVOC, but with a clean break from the rail, and cutback to five furlongs, he can be long gone. STORMS RIVER finished an okay fourth in his debut on the hill at Santa Anita. Improvement likely with a race under his belt; he will rally from behind. TRUCK SALESMAN, runner-up sprinting on this course in summer, returns from a layoff as a first-time gelding. He has speed, and could keep the top choice honest.

FOURTH RACE

STEPH BEING STEPH returns to preferred footing after a turf experiment backfired last out. She finished next to last. ‘STEPH ran the best race of her career on the Del Mar dirt in summer, her recent works are sharp and she is quick enough to keep the pacesetter in her sights. Six and a half furlongs is the ideal distance to reel in the speed. The likely pacesetter is DOMINATING WOMAN, a 4-for-8 speedster that won this N2X condition in fall at Los Al. ‘WOMAN is likely to set the pace, and could get brave. She is trained by Peter Miller, who also entered Kentucky shipper KELLY’S HUMOR. The latter is making her first start for Miller, and might be the “class” of the field having placed in four graded stakes. A deep closer with a style opposite her stablemate, KELLY’S HUMOR will roll late. SPRING LILY is back doing what she does best. That is, sprint. She has speed and could keep the pace honest.

FIFTH RACE

Based on a respectable runner-up finish last out, STARRING JOHN WAIN is the tepid choice in this maiden-50 for Cal-bred 2yos. ‘WAIN broke slowly, was camped four-wide through the turn, finished willingly and was more than two clear of third at the wire. Not bad. He probably benefits by the distance increase from six furlongs to six and a half, and can wear them down late. Inside post is a challenge, but he will drop back early and rally. Perhaps the post it is not a big deal. HANDSOME JOHN returns to the Del Mar surface on which he ran the best races of his six-start career. He seems to be rounding back into form based on his okay

runner-up finish last out. ITS FIVE SOMEWHERE adds blinkers and drops back into a maiden-claiming race for his first start since September. The back-to-back 55 Beyer Figures he earned are the top figures in the field.

SIXTH RACE

AVANTI BELLO lost at even-money last out in a Calbred N1X/optional $16k claiming route, but he ran a winning race in defeat. He bumps up in class to open $32k claiming as the logical choice. Last out, ‘BELLO dueled on a fast pace, hung tough through the lane, and held second. The winner/pace rival Surfing Star flattered the race by winning next out in an open N1X. ‘BELLO was claimed in a 19-way shake by Vladimir Cerin, the gelding is 3-for-7 over the Del Mar main track and has a versatile running style that should lead to a cozy trip right behind the speed. JUST KIDDING romped by 11 lengths last out and was claimed for $20k by Jerry Hollendorfer. He defeated top choice AVANTI BELLO two back, finished second to that rival three back. Two good veterans in peak form. CLEAR THE MINE will try to become the first repeat winner at the Del Mar autumn meet. He crushed a $20k claiming route that was the first race of the meet, and wheels back a week later while up in class. The gelding fits with these. BEANTOWN BOYS will be running late.

SEVENTH RACE

KODIAK WEST finished seventh as the favorite in her U.S. debut, but she had an alibi. Blocked from the five-sixteenths to the eighth pole, she did not find clear sailing until the race essentially was over, and missed by only three lengths. It was an inconclusive performance. That race was three months ago, she returns in a similar N1X turf route for 3yo fillies, adding blinkers. Stakes winner/stakes-placed early this year in Europe, she deserves another chance. NICE ICE finished last in a similar spot in her most recent start, but she also had an alibi. It was her third start of the Del Mar summer meet; few horses maintain top form three starts during the short meet. The first two Del Mar starts by NICE ICE were an allowance win vs. Cal-breds and a runner-up finish at this N1X level. Freshened since, she runs well with time between starts, and should come back firing. STRADELLA ROAD stretched out for the first time and defeated maidens at 9-1. She has found a home around two turns, and fits right back in her first try against winners. K P PERGOLISCIOUS is a contender based on her fourth-place finish last out in a stakes and close third two back at this mile and one-eighth distance.

EIGHTH RACE

BITTER RING HOME drops to the maiden-20 bottom class level for the first time, and tries dirt for the first time. His rivals are a mishmash bunch of sprinters trying two turns, and career maidens. In a weak field, dropper ‘HOME gets the tepid call. FRIENDLY STEVE is a sprinter running long for the first time, in the seventh start of his career. The even-paced running style he normally shows in sprints suggests this mile distance might be okay. BLAZE OF GLORY will be among the favorites based on his runner-up finish last out, runnerup by a nose in a slow-pace affair. That knock is he squandered a three-length lead at the eighth pole last time. Two turns might be farther than he wants to run. This is a messy race, none of the top three can be trusted.