Final Keeneland sale figures tell only part of the story

The Keeneland November breeding stock sale concluded its nearly two-week run with declines in key economic indicators compared with the 2017 edition – but declines that don’t tell the whole story. One decade on from the recession that rocked the Thoroughbred industry, the mixed auction showed signs of a buoyant middle market – and the robust demand for broodmares and weanlings by major operations, representing long-term investments, indicated optimism for the health of the industry in the near future.

“We are seeing people buying in and buying more mares, but again, it’s back to the perceived quality,” Keeneland’s director of sales Geoffrey Russell said. “Everyone is looking for that certain type of weanling or certain type of mare. Everyone talks about ‘the Saturday horse.’ They’re looking for the producer of the Saturday horse. They’re cutting down their numbers, but they’re increasing their quality.”

The 12-day Keeneland auction finished with 2,538 horses sold for gross receipts of $188,508,300, led by champion Lady Eli, who sold for $4.2 million. The revenues were down 7 percent from last year’s figure of $202,021,700 from 2,424 horses sold.

This year’s cumulative average closed at $74,274, down 11 percent from $83,342 in 2017. The median finished with an 18 percent decline to $25,000. Last year’s median checked in at $30,500, the third-highest in this auction’s history.

While the sale’s overall average price closed down, the figures in the upper-tomiddle markets showed gains compared with the similar portions of the 2017 sale. The average price for the singlesession Book 1 finished at $470,242, a 13 percent gain compared with $417,891 for the two-session Book 1 of 2017. The two sessions of Book 2 averaged $151,684, compared with $130,939, a 16 percent spike; and Book 3 averaged $62,878, compared with $58,989, rising 7 percent.

The cumulative buyback rate finished at 27 percent, compared with 25 percent in 2017. The buyback rate was steady compared to last year’s edition of the sale, sitting at an even 24 percent, until coming to the lower-end Book 7 market in the final two days of the sale.

“I think it is, in many respects, a continuation of what last year’s November sale looked like,” Bob Elliston, Keeneland’s vice president of racing and sales, said. “We had fewer big ones up front, and so we’re gonna end up a little bit off in terms of gross sales. But when you look past that Book 1 number, generally, it’s been very much like November of 2017. Our clearance rates are almost identical. I think you’ll see the average and median down a little bit, and that’s because we sold more horses, but they’re in [the second] week. So that’ll probably take the numbers down a little bit, but we’re very pleased with the strength of the broodmare market, the appetite for these American-bred horses, domestically and internationally.”

Lady Eli, carrying her first foal, by War Front, sold to Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm during the elite Book 1 session on Nov. 5. The second-highest price was versatile Grade 2 winner My Miss Sophia, who sold for $4 million to bloodstock agent Steven Young. She is also in foal to War Front.

The two highest-priced weanlings were both fillies by perennial leading sire Tapit. Whisper Hill Farm and Three Chimneys Farm partnered on an $800,000 filly out of champion female sprinter La Verdad.

A Tapit filly who is a halfsister to champion Arrogate went for $750,000. The filly was consigned by Hill ‘n’ Dale, which co-owns her dam, Bubbler, with Clearsky Farm, which bred Arrogate. Clearsky bought out its original partners in this filly along with Rac 04 Racing.

Both weanlings were purchased by “end users,” or those who intend to follow through on their careers, as opposed to pinhookers. That pattern indicates continued optimism from buyers that the yearling market will remain strong next year.

“A lot of times, [the weanling market leaders are] the pinhookers, looking to be able to turn them back in September,” Elliston said. “But we’re seeing a lot of end users buying weanlings, because they probably understand how hard they are to get bought in the September market. So they’re trying to get in here.”

Arrogate edges Gun Runner

Champions Arrogate and Gun Runner traded blows throughout their racing careers. Arrogate, racing’s leading money winner, ran down Gun Runner for a dramatic victory in the 2017 Dubai World Cup. But that turned out to be the final win of his career, and by the end of the season Gun Runner had turned the tables, winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic to secure the Horse of the Year title.

The two are now cast as commercial rivals in the stallion market, with first foals arriving in 2019, and Arrogate landed the first blow, as he finished as the leading firstyear covering sire by average at the Keeneland November breeding stock sale.

Arrogate, who stands for $75,000 at Juddmonte Farm, was represented by seven mares in foal averaging $366,429. Gun Runner, standing for $70,000 at Three Chimneys, also had seven mares in foal sold, averaging $310,000.

The top first-year covering sire by gross was Claiborne Farm resident Mastery, with 27 mares sold for a total of $4.8 million. An unbeaten Grade 1 winner, Mastery is by Candy Ride, also the sire of Gun Runner.

Nyquist weanlings sell well

Juvenile champion and Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist led a group of first-crop weanling sires that included several fellow Eclipse Award champions at the Keeneland November breeding stock sale. Nyquist, who stands for Darley, was represented by the most expensive youngster from the group – a $600,000 filly sold to Larry Best’s OXO Equine – and led his class by average, with three sold for an average of $335,000.

Two-time Horse of the Year and Taylor Made stallion California Chrome finished with an average of $109,500 from six sold.

Champion sprinter Runhappy, standing at Claiborne Farm, led his class by gross, with 14 weanlings sold for $2.095 million.