ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

BAFFIN BAY didn’t get bet and didn’t make an impact in his career debut at Saratoga then went to Penn National and stretched out for his second start, where he bumped into an impressive winner (70 Beyer for Dunph, who returned to win a stakes race in his next start with an 83) while trying gamely; returns as a new gelding with blinkers on as he takes the drop for Pletcher. LE GROS BILL in a good spot for his debut if he can run a little and he has some pedigree being from a stakeswinning dam who is a sister to Grade 3 winner Genre; trainer can win with a firster. CATCH ME IF U CAN one of two for Diodoro in this spot and he retains the go-to rider after losing a stretch battle to first time starter Quick Connect as the favorite last time; tries again. LONE PIONEER the other Diodoro picking up a more than capable replacement in Irad; cuts back and drops back down after failing to make an impact as an MTO at the MSW level last week.

SECOND RACE

RIVER OF DREAMS isn’t always reliable but he is capable of a race that would make him competitive here as he drops in claiming price after concentrating on turf races so far this year; most recent win came in blow out fashion over this track in the slop with a competitive figure. GLENNRICHMENT missed time following a good effort on turf back in April and has been scratched by the vet since failing to make a run at Saratoga back in August; has some dirt races that would make him tough in a race like this as he starts back for Rudy, who is off to his typical good start at Aqueduct. RIDE ON FAITH returned to NY to post a victory over a one-turn mile back in May then came right back to win his next start in the slop at Saratoga; didn’t run his best race in his first start for this trainer most recently but he is capable of rebounding vs. this field.

THIRD RACE

PETE’S PLAY CALL didn’t break sharply from the gate in his return to NY a few races prior to TIMBER GHOST’s last win, but he moved strongly to get into contention and finished gamely before falling just short of Life in Shambles, who will go in the Fall Highweight on Thursday; hard-hitter earned career-best 104 Beyer over this track last November. TIMBER GHOST got bet in both earlyseason starts at Gulfstream but failed to live up to the hype, then got laid up and returned at Saratoga looking like a different horse while blowing out maidens with a 92 Beyer; wasn’t as impressive winning right back in his next start while gaining control on a modest pace but he did earn another competitive figure. STILL KRZ used his ample early speed to go back to back against claiming company over the summer, then jumped way up to try the Grade 1 Vosburgh off the claim; dangerous speed back in a more appropriate spot.

FOURTH RACE

DEMARCHELIER, from an unraced dam who is a full-sister to top class Yesterday and Irish 2yo champion filly Quarter Moon, was purchased by top connections at Tattersalls in Europe last October; son of top stallion Dubawi makes his debut from a nice post. MALTHAEL has had good trips in both turf starts so far without making much of a late impact but he has faced good fields both times, first against subsequent Grade 3 winner Current, and most recently when second-best to Empire of War, who returned to win the $100k Awad with an 80 Beyer. Don’t think SEISMIC WAVE debuted in the strongest MSW field at Belmont but he was game rallying from off the pace there before just falling short at the end; well-bred colt eligible to improve in his second start for Mott. DR. ENGLISH debuting for Pletcher with some pedigree as a half to three turf winners, including Grade 3 winner Keystoneforvictory.

FIFTH RACE

NOMORERICHBLONDES failed to make an impact in her first two starts stateside but she clearly has some talent as a UAE Oaks winner as an early 3yo; half to two turf winners, including stakes winner Free Kitty, switching to turf for the first time off a trainer change to Linda Rice, a move that worked

recently for Bloody Point, also for these owners.

MRS. RAMONA G. lost her way a bit early this year following a solid debut win sprinting on turf as a 2yo but she was back in form when prevailing off the layoff most recently, though she had a perfect trip in that spot; tough if moving forward again second time back. ELOWEASEL hasn’t run up to her best in her last two starts, but she is going to be tough in here if showing up with something like that effort she put up winning three starts back; prior win over Aqueduct turf came in her maiden victory way back in 2015. GO ASTRAY was a huge price in her turf debut most recently but she ran a big race there while making the first run to attack a fast pace, only to give way to closers late; threat if she can back that race up and she’ll be a price once again.

SIXTH RACE

OKEAMO has been entered and scratched several times recently, a couple of times by the vet and a couple of times to apparently avoid wet tracks; looks tough in this spot if he finally gets to run. LOCAL EDITION has made all four starts to date in turf without success, though he did run pretty well within the context of that 8/26 race at Saratoga, which went to closers late; all five prior foals to race from this dam are winners on dirt. FLAT OUT JAYVIEN has had a tough go of it through his first ten starts, even while getting some class relief as a 3yo, but his last two races are clearly the best that he has run; lands in another weak overall field as he stretches out to a mile.

SEVENTH RACE

MINI P took advantage of a good trip into a fast pace when coming up just short at a big price in his debut but he ran well there and he looked a bit fresh when hard to handle on the lead off the layoff; missed the break and wound up held up in traffic in the stretch in an effort that is better than it looks most recently. ARGONNE prevailed before justifiably being disqualified when stretched out on turf two starts back, then returned from the layoff and, like MINI P, was blocked in traffic in the stretch run last time; horse to beat as the likely clear-cut favorite. INLE has some improving to do in a race like this but he is lightly-raced for a top trainer and he has a big pedigree on his side.

EIGHTH RACE

BENEVOLENCE has run well in all three starts off the claim for this trainer, including winning effort two back when closing down a fast pace; back quickly following underrated effort last week when making a strong wide run to contention before flattening out behind Royal Asset, who came through with a career-best effort for Rudy. T LOVES A FIGHT has raced infrequently this year after putting together a solid 3yo campaign in 2017; dropping for this after a somewhat improved effort chasing a fast pace most recently. STONEY BENNETT returned to form following the layoff to win back to back for Linda Rice, and he ran equally well last time when ripping off a fast pace and tiring late behind BENEVOLENCE; faces another tough pace scenario here.

NINTH RACE

MOBRIDGE had a tough trip in his first start off the claim at Saratoga then rebounded to post an easy win with a good trip two back, making it 5 for his last 8 in this condition; drops back down from a nice draw after facing a much tougher field last time. MACAGONE drops to lowest level yet after being reclaimed by Mott; has had no excuses in his last two starts and has drawn a tougher outside post, but he clearly fits well here and likes this turf course. CLOONTIA parlayed a perfect trip into a win when dropped to this level at Saratoga in a race where MOBRIDGE encountered traffic trouble; was held up behind horses around the turn last time as MOBRIDGE was making an unencumbered run down the outside to take over.