Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
Telekinesis facing large field
Time to raise a glass, or a mutuel ticket, to the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which is now under way through Sunday and is in its 21st consecutive year. This parimutuel wager, of which Pool 1 of four opened Thursday, is as much about bragging rights as it is about profits – a chance for horseplayers to state their opinions early and be validated if proven right.
It is not easy trying to find the Kentucky Derby winner more than five months before the race, as demonstrated last year, when only eight of the original 23 betting interests from Pool 1 actually made it into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. The best finish of that eight came from Good Magic, who finished second to Triple Crown winner Justify – an “all others” or field option that was bet to 6-5 favoritism.
New this year is a chance to bet all 3-year-old fillies, the No. 23 betting option, with the field option now restricted to colts and geldings in its usual positioning as No. 24.
Exacta wagering is available, and a separate pool for Kentucky Derby sire wagering is again in play. The traditional Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool closes at 6 p.m. Eastern on Sunday, with the Sire Wager closing at 6:30.
The logistics out of the way, here are some thoughts:
◗ If the fillies option starts anywhere close to the morning line of 30-1, it is an underlay. This is not related to the talent of the female horses across the country but rather conditions that make it unlikely for a filly to even start in the race.
Since horses now gain entry into the Kentucky Derby by earning points in major preps, it is now difficult for a filly to make what is regularly an oversubscribed Derby field. To do so would require she venture outside of races restricted to females and compete against the boys prior to the Derby, and that is something few have done in the Derby points era.
◗ Since the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is a parimutuel wager, not a bet with fixed odds like a future bet at a casino, waiting until the close of wagering on Sunday to play is the soundest practice, at least for those who want to ponder the most accurate prices. Doing so also gives bettors the chance to digest Saturday’s Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club from Churchill Downs, a race that features four horses entered in Pool 1 as individual interests – Dumph, King for a Day, Knicks Go, and Signalman.
Their Saturday performances will be telling regarding their potential as Derby candidates, though they are not the only ones who merit watching. Strong performances by horses in that race who are not among the individual betting interests would add appeal to the field option.
For that matter, the entire Saturday card at Churchill – an all-juvenile program – merits examination for any new shooters on the 2-year-old scene who could be represented by the field, or by a given sire.
◗ Like a specific horse in the field but do not want to take the short price? Consider the sire wager.
A wager in that pool on last year’s Kentucky Derby sire winner, Scat Daddy, returned $54.80 when Justify won the Run for the Roses. Justify, unraced last fall, was part of the field in Pool 1 last year, which returned $4.40 – though specifically wanting to bet him last year as a horse with just a few works would have been bold indeed.
Another point about the sire wager: Since it closes after the traditional one, it represents a last chance for bettors seeking value perhaps not found in the traditional pool. So, a horseplayer who is intrigued by Coliseum in the Derby futures, only to be discouraged to find him bet down, might consider playing his sire, Tapit, instead in the sire pool.
The sire wager can also provide insurance with backup runners. So, if one likes Game Winner, for example, that horse can be played by backing his sire, Candy Ride, which would cover all of Candy Ride’s rising 3-year-olds, including Nashua winner Vekoma.
◗ In this space shortly after the Breeders’ Cup, I touched upon five leading challengers to Game Winner in the lead-up to the Derby. I remain high on that five – Instagrand, Improbable, Vekoma, Network Effect, and Knicks Go – and will be closely monitoring their prices before the Derby futures pool closes.
Of this group, the one with the greatest potential to be overlooked is Network Effect (No. 16). The runner-up in the Nashua, he doesn’t quite have the buzz of horses coming off victories, but the 93 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in the Nashua is equivalent to the figure Game Winner ran in winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Nominated to the Dec. 1 Remsen at Aqueduct, Network Effect is 30-1 on the Derby futures morning line.