ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, PIONEEROF NEW YORK

FIRST RACE

CONFEDERATION got bet first time out but never landed a blow with his rider just holding him together, then made his second start off the claim and ran better than it looks while contesting a fast pace all the way and holding on; logically spotted off the maiden win for a trainer off to a good start at the meet. DOUBLE DEEP earned a field-best last out Beyer of 70 here nine days ago when only second-best to a good winner in a race originally scheduled for turf; Rudy only 4 for his last 36 (11%) with a $0.51 ROI when dropping 50% in claiming price in NY. INFIELD IS IN just 1 for 21 lifetime and 0 for his last 12 since winning his 2018 debut on the drop, but like that he showed more early interest off the claim last time; has plenty of back races to make him tough in this spot.

SECOND RACE

NO DEAL hasn’t often been entered for dirt but she has run well on the main track at times and will be facing maiden claiming company for the first time on dirt in this spot; has caught slop in her last three starts on dirt, and she ran well vs. better when beginning her career on the main track. SACRIFICE chased a front-running winner to no avail in her debut on dirt, then went immediately to turf for her next two starts; turns back and goes turf to dirt off the claim for the very good team of Amendola/Reynolds. WAY OVER BUDGET not fast enough based on her early-season efforts but eligible to improve making her first start since June; finished gamely after stumbling badly at the start at this level in April, then contested the pace over a mile in her next start, before chasing an in-form Seam prior to the layoff.

THIRD RACE

MIHOS debuted in a very strong maiden race and finished a game 3rd behind subsequent Nashua winner Vekoma and next-out maiden winner Epic Dreamer; adds Lasix for his second start. LOVERBOY LOU also debuted in a good race and made a strong run to challenge on the turn while traveling a difficult distance for a first time starter; likely to be a square price once again for lower-profile connections. MUTAKAAMIL has some improving to do and may ultimately need more distance to be effective after lacking speed first time out in a race that came back fast (90 Beyer for the winner); half to Shagaf, who also raced for these connections and posted all three career wins over a mile.

FOURTH RACE

SHIRAZ posted a big win over a speed-favoring track on dirt on Gold Cup day then subsequently proved not to be a dirt horse in his next two starts; He has never been a winning-type, and that main track win was his first since breaking his maiden nearly two years prior, but he has run regularly well sprinting on turf and fits well in this wide open race. OUTRAGEOUS BET has never been better than he is right now, though there is some question as to whether he, and his recently red-hot trainer, can keep it going; ran very well winning each of his last two starts and is tough in here if returning with another race in that vein. FRISKY MAGICIAN was surprisingly dull in his starts two and three back after just missing with a rail rally dropping out of graded stakes at Saratoga, but he turned it around last time when closing down a field on the drop with a solid figure; closing sprinter goes off the claim and needs a trip.

FIFTH RACE

BERNARDINO failed to make an impact in his career debut at Saratoga but that was a race that was dominated on the lead and he was trying to close from last; think he ran better than it looks there and he can clearly improve with that race behind him. UNCLE CURLY making his debut going long from a nice inside draw, and doing so for a

trainer who tends to have his first time starters ready to go; Curlin colt has plenty of pedigree as a half to the stakes-winning turfer Tapitation and out of a dam who was a Grade 3 winner on grass.

JIMMY JAZZ has gotten unlucky a couple of times already, including that pace-dominated race with BERNARDINO when taken back from the start; tough post but he is better than he looks.

SIXTH RACE

PLAINSMAN enters the Grade 3 Discovery in form following back to back wins for a high-percentage trainer, and he showed that he can get this trip three back when finishing an unlucky 3rd at Saratoga; win last time was aided by the no-show from Cloud Computing but he made an early move to contention there and was a convincing winner. GRONKOWSKI’s three stateside starts have come in Grade 1 competition but he really only ran particularly well in the Belmont Stakes; class relief no small thing but he is a short price in here without an apparent edge. ROAMING UNION found himself overmatched when stepping up in form to try the Grade 1 Haskell over the summer, but he has won both starts since and has no trouble with distance; lone entrant in the field with a prior win over track and trip.

SEVENTH RACE

DISCO PARTNER exits BC Turf Sprint try that was contested over a distance that is a bit short for him and over the kind of softer turf course that he struggles with; top turf sprinter is all class and too good for these horses if bringing close to his best. FIELDER may be found out vs. horses like this but he has made the recent switch to turf effectively while winning two of four and earned a career-best figure when coming up just short in the Laurel Dash; has a versatile running style and will be a price. HEMBREE won three of his first four starts off the claim for Maker including both turf sprints, before breaking slowly and failing to factor in the Breeders’ Cup; rebound chance at a fair price.

EIGHTH RACE

FULLY VESTED caught a track that was kind to speed when winning impressively off the layoff at Saratoga, but that wasn’t the first time he had run a good race and he ran well again last time despite failing to hold the in-form Win With Pride in the late stages; appears to hold the best speed in this matchup. IDENTITY POLITICS was game closing down American Rule in his first ever dirt start last time, and he had shown some potential on turf prior to winning that race; lightly-raced 3yo has to step it up vs. this field but he is eligible to do so. Admit to not being a TOMMY T fan but he clearly 110th St. and Rockaway Blvd. Ozone Park, NY 11417 (718) 641-4700 NYRA Scratch Line: (866) 697-2238 Main track: One and one-eighth miles, oval Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,155.5 feet Inner turf: Seven Furlongs, 43 feet, oval Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,174.9 feet Turf course: One mile, oval

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 16% ■ Daily Double, Quinella, and Exacta wagering: 18.5% ■ Trifecta, Superfecta, Grand Slam, Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 6 wagering (carryover pools): 24% ■ Pick 5 wagering: 15% ■ Pick 6 wagering (non-carryover pools): 15% has the races to be competitive in this spot and it has been a rare chance when he failed to show up with a run; had landed in some pretty tough spots along the way.

NINTH RACE

POLLARA was impressive winning two of her first three starts in France prior to shipping over and did so while showing fine tactical speed and a strong kick; landed in a tough spot in her first start for Chad and was out-kicked when it counted but can have another chance. GOLDEN ATTITUDE faced some very good horses in France as a 3yo and held her own against them, and she leveled into a nice run when winning off the long layoff two starts back; game try came up just short to a more tactical Homeland Security last time. NIGHT OF ENGLAND didn’t fire her best shot when out to 12 furlongs most recently but she was on the upswing leading into the German Oaks prior to that and finished a good 2nd there to Well Timed; ships over to make her first start for Chad Brown.

TENTH RACE

PIONEEROF NEW YORK didn’t earn much of a figure first time out in the slop as an early 2yo but that was a useful run after getting out-paced early; was rained off in her first start back and may be set to improve now getting to turf with plenty of pedigree. MIKE’S GIRL has been rained off in each of her last two starts and hasn’t run particularly well in either of those races; dis run well when settling for 2nd in the faster division of NY-bred maidens in her most recent turf start. TRUMPIT was bumped at the start and held up at the back of the field when behind MIKE’S GIRL in that fast race first time out, but she was finishing with some interest in that spot; cuts back after trying a tougher distance in her second start.