ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, SYNCHRONY

FIRST RACE

ONE FAST BROAD is back doing what she does best, long on turf, after a dull showing in a dirt sprint. She finished third in a similar N2X turf route two back, and won a N1X turf route on the Del Mar turf three back. Off the pace and into the winner’s circle for Mick Ruis and assistant trainer Shelbe Ruis. ENGLISH DANCER won four in a row in New York and Kentucky prior to a fourth-place finish last out in a race run over a Keeneland turf bog labelled “soft.” This is the first start in California for ‘DANCER, and despite a forecast of moderate rainfall midweek, the Del Mar course is expected to be firm. PULPIT RIDER, a 3yo facing older, popped at 11-1 on this course in summer. She will roll late. WICKED STORM is likely to set the pace.

SECOND RACE

HARMON has been begging for two turns. The 2yo finally gets it in his third start, following two creditable sprints including an improved third last time out. The Paddy Gallagher-trained son of Cairo Prince has been billed as a good one throughout autumn; this is his best chance to deliver on the hype. GRAY MAGICIAN, sibling to G3 winner Lombo, stretches out as potential pacesetter, first start since changing trainers. He has faced good company, runner-up to the well-regarded Magic On Tap two back and third behind subsequent stakes winner Improbable last out. Win or lose, GRAY MAGICIAN looks like the one to catch. HIGHLIGHT REEL will attempt a difficult feat. That is, winning a route first time out. On the other hand, Bob Baffert-trained 2yo first-time starters are 17-for-25 this year including a recent debut victory by Rayana around two turns.

THIRD RACE

In a wide open N1X/optional $40k claiming turf route, CIMPL MAN gets the tepid nod based on sharp recent form. His runner-up finish as the favorite last out at this class level may have been better than it appears; the winner got loose and wired the field while the closers merely went up and down. Assuming a realistic pace, and if he reproduces his highly rated effort his most recent start on this course in summer, CIMPL MAN can mow them down. OISEAU DE GUERRE is winless in routes, but his sprint form is decent and he should be positioned in front of the top choice partway. TERRYS TOM CAT is a veteran 7yo that loves the Del Mar turf course. He is 4-for-9 here, with overlay wins the past four summers ($23.20, $9, $22.80 and $26.80). TARTINI returns from a two-month freshening; he ran well here during the summer meet.

FOURTH RACE

DAMIANO pressed fast fractions before he backed up and split the field in his debut. He drops from maiden special-weight to maiden-50 and could be long gone. OHTANI, a rookie (of the year, American League) trained by Bill Spawr, makes his career debut. Spawr recently had a successful run with a filly by First Dude (Skye Diamonds). Slow works are not unusual for this trainer; OHTANI is a sibling to four multiple winners. She might be better than her drills suggest. SEEKING REFUGE goes turf to dirt, stakes to maiden50. Wakeup on the drop? DIAMOND BLITZ lost a lot ground in his fourth-place debut. He was claimed for $30k, the claim was voided, he returns for $50k. Contender, no doubt.

FIFTH RACE

Fourth in the G1 Natalma in her North American debut at Woodbine, PIVOTTINA drops in class to G3, adds Lasix and makes her first start for a top U.S. trainer in Graham Motion. Although the purported trouble PIVOTTINA encountered in the Natalma was overstated, there is little doubt she is facing easier company this time. LAKERBALL is the top local filly, having won both stakes-race starts since moving to turf including a five-length romp last out at Golden Gate. She did not have much behind her, but that was not her fault. She downright dominated, and might be this good.

SIXTH RACE

MONETTE one-two in six of seven starts including a runner-up U.S. debut at Belmont, stretches out to a mile for Motion. Her first start in this country was solid. Away last, she rallied past nine of her 10 rivals to miss by only a head. That was six furlongs. ITALIA won her only start in a 14-horse field in France. This is her U.S. debut. POPULAR KID, a deep closer with four wins from his last six starts, was claimed for $32k and looks like the one to beat in this N1X route. One-mile dirt races this meet produced a host of deep-closing winners; six of 12 were won from the middle or back of the field. KERSHAW is the one to catch, although he benefited from a pronounced speed bias Oct. 20 at Santa Anita. That starter allowance was his first route; he won by more than six. Come and catch him. Entering the Thursday card at Del Mar, four of the mile dirt races had been won by the pacesetter. Basically, despite an occasional speed bias, the track has played fair to all styles. GIANT INFLUENCE drops from N2X to run for the optional $40k claim tag. He finished second during the summer meet at this class level. JUNGLE WARFARE figures in the hunt, as usual.

SEVENTH RACE

SYNCHRONY, multiple graded stakes winner in the East and Midwest, meets a mishmash cast of California turf runners. He might be a standout. His seventh-place finish last out probably can be attributed to the “good” turf course. He prefers “firm,” which he is likely to get. The class of the field, shipping in for Mike Stidham and Joe Bravo, SYNCHRONY looks like the most probable winner on the card. However, BIG SCORE finally draws a favorable post position after being compromised by wide trips recent starts. He also is believed to have more speed than he showed recently. If his new rider can coax him to establish a forward position, and if he can avoid losing so much ground, he could upset. Worth noting: he finished in front of the top choice when they meet two months ago at Keeneland. PINCHECK makes his U.S. debut against a relatively modest cast. KENJISSTORM is potential lone speed.

EIGHTH RACE

SPOKANE EAGLE finished more than seven lengths clear of third last out when runner-up at this N3L class level. Although it is unclear if he likes the Del Mar main track as much as Santa Anita, the in-form gelding would be tough to beat off his two recent starts. FACE OF VICTORY won a highly rated $25k claiming N2L sprint his most recent start two months ago. The race was validated when the thirdplace finisher returned to win. SILVER SUMMER is a dropper with speed, trying dirt for the first time in nearly two years. The potential pacesetter, he has a shot to outrun his odds. SMUGGLER UNION might be ranked too low by this handicapper. He runaway N2L win on this track in September would probably be good enough.

NINTH RACE

NAUGHTY SOPHIE, runner-up at this N1X turf-sprint level last out, is fast and figures for a pressing trip outside her front-running stablemate SUSPICIOUS SPOUSE. The latter is drawn inside and therefore likely to use her speed to make the lead. Seems doubtful that the Peter Miller trainees will duel head and head. If they do, then late-runner HELEN’S TIGER could be along in time. Her three summer sprints on this turf course in summer produced a win and two seconds. Look for her late.