ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, HOT BOBBY

FIRST RACE

DESERT FOX gets class and circuit relief today. This gelding had some trouble in both starts at Santa Anita yet only beat one home each day hence is arrival here. Both sibs beat winners and a top jock gets a leg up in Lopez. EZ EZ EZ showed some speed off the layoff but that is what fresh horses often do. We expect a stalking trip today. This horse has yet to run poorly on this dirt. What if he improves a notch second off the layoff? BLANK IT has a nice work tab. He did try tougher before the layoff. There is a good chance that he has matured a lot since last seen in January.

SECOND RACE

SAND HARBOR isn’t bred to like the grass yet won his grass debut in only his second start. We love how he won. This barn is 2 for 3 off a long layoff. It is a great sign that connections want a grass race off said layoff. Even better, the leading rider once again gets a leg up (39% jockey/trainer). Works are perfect. MR. MATLOCK should offer some value. This gelding tried SoCal grass special weights a while ago and ran OK if only beating a few home each time. Fast forward to his most recent where he pushed the pace off the layoff and simply tired. He should be more fit today and is still bred to love the grass. The class drop can only help. MESA SKYLINE is just better of late and looks like a new turf horse. What if he can improve second time this sod? He gets to save all the early ground from his rail draw. INDIAN GULCH exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 70 and 68. On a side note, this field is very good for the level and might be worth remembering.

THIRD RACE

BOLD CHARMANT was improving before his most recent but that was a route try and we think this colt is more of a sprinter something he returns to today. There is very little pace in this race so this runner should be up close and personal. We like the jock switch to Stevens. The only knock is being stuck on the rail at this elongated sprint distance. BLACKEYE WYNN gets in light and has some figures that figure. We thought his most recent was better than

it looked as he was shipping in from the East coast.

SOLAR FLAIR might be a good price. It wasn’t that long ago that he was facing better in Illinois. This barn shows a flat bet profit going route to sprint.

FOURTH RACE

PUNDY ran OK 1 and 3 back. We have pocket excuses for races 2 and 4 back. Other speed is a worry but at least this gelding draws outside most of it. MIDNIGHT ZITHER didn’t fire three back when facing first time winners but other than that is feeling great. Versatile style is huge. With a good break, the rail draw isn’t too much of a worry and he should be getting used to it as he draws the wood for the fourth time in a row. SINGAPRAYER is in good form and keeps the leading rider. The barn change is the X factor as Fields takes over for Diodoro. This barn is 0 for 5 off the claim but the sample size is very small. VALIANT DEPUTY is interesting.

FIFTH RACE

JOYEUX gets good race flow, draws nicely, wants to pass runners, has won twice on this sod, and drops in class. He had some trouble in his most recent when in tight early in the race. Weight break can’t hurt. We think the price could entice. FACTORED IN is a horse for course that just won on this sod. Race flow is a plus and the leading rider keeps the call. The one to beat then. JOMELO might have needed his return try to some extent. Local turf tries before the layoff were all solid. This barn is 2 for 9 second off a long layoff. MAXIMUS THE GREAT is by a 0 for 10 debut turf sire. His dam went 1-0-1-0 for $1,440 on the green. We count six sibs but none tried the weeds.

SIXTH RACE

MY CRAFTY GAL goes second off the layoff and she broke her maiden second time racing. We like that Stevens keeps the call. This filly never got a breather in her most recent so maybe she takes back today. A more outside post may help this filly relax some. DEL MAR DIVA can pass runners and draws inside. Her most recent was solid and she could improve second time this dirt. WESTERN WILDCAT is speed between other speeds. A small shot that she can clear off. She goes second off the layoff and she did break her maiden in her second start.

SEVENTH RACE

BATTLE ZONE ran OK last out and it was his first on this dirt. We like that connections want 6 1/2 furlongs again. Maybe this gelding can carve out a niche as an elongated sprint runner. This horse cost 250K which proves the breeding game can be perilous at times. The leading rider lands here. JUNE AND JOHNNY has route speed on the cut back. Even better is the fact that there is little speed in this race. This gelding was only two lengths back at the first call three back and that opening split was a quick 22 seconds. It is nice to see this horse put races together. I B EZ drops in class and is now a gelding. Works are well spaced and the blinkers go ON. This is a tough distance off a long layoff.

EIGHTH RACE

HOT BOBBY is feeling great. He just ran a Beyer top on the grass and did so first out for new barn. He has a recent work, draws nicely, gets great race flow, and might be the only closer in this race. Easily our best bet of the day. PAPPOU is feeling good and has good speed. What if the rail runner guns? There is speed to the outside also. If you told us this gelding can stalk then we would have picked him on top. We do like the class jump for Diodoro. We originally picked PLAYOFF BOUND on top but the more we looked at today’s pace the more we were convinced that this gelding was up against it trip-wise. He still loves this grass while new barn is 22% off the claim. SUANCES SECRET exits a key race where 2 of 8 returned to win with figs of 76 and 78.