ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, FUEL INJECTED PRAYER

FIRST RACE

FUEL INJECTED PRAYER lost any reasonable chance with a very poor start in his debut, but he made it interesting with a middle move down the backstretch before he flattened out late; clearly dangerous here with a clean start. MR. MAC is at his lowest level yet in his first start off the layoff, which could be construed as a negative, but the barn does well with new faces; best Beyers makes him a logical contender. HARLEY BOY is kin to nine winners; sports a couple of decent breezes.

SECOND RACE

THORNTON is down slightly in class for his first start off the claim and layoff, and though he was off the board when last seen he did have a pace excuse; looking to make the last run but he should get ample pace. LITTLE LEO makes his first start since May but he does fit with these in terms of Beyers, and he does fit the race flow; could prove a late threat at a square price. BOLD RESPONSE is the one to catch and beat but he could face some pressure on the front end in his first start since June.

THIRD RACE

ATTA KID ships in from Kentucky for his first start off the claim and he has license to improve off that last one vs. the locals; against the flow in three of his prior four starts and he was overmatched in the other try. THE WAYNE FACTOR was no threat against better in his latest, and while the jump in class in help didn’t help he was also against the race flow, which favored speed (note bold “S” in DRF pp’s); improvement expected. BEST OFFER has some early zip and will be prominent from the start; will have to deal with POLAR CITY from the start, and these two could hook up in the opening stages.

FOURTH RACE

GAME LAD was very sharp here last year and though he’s been away he has run well when fresh in the past; could be the main speed in this turf route, which is otherwise a little light on pace. OUSBY wheels right back after racing here on opening day and he should appreciate the move to an open claimer after facing starter handicap runners in that first start off the short rest; needs to stay close if the pace is in fact controlled. BLACK PRONG was aided by the fast fractions in that last win, posting a Beyer he’s very unlikely to match here, and he is up in class for this, but the barn has solid stats in several pertinent trainer categories.

FIFTH RACE

BOBBY’S BDAY GIRL makes her first start since September but she lands in a very good spot, as she should be able to use her early speed to her best advantage in this seemingly paceless sprint; will take them as far as she can on the front end and she’ll be tough to reel in if loose from the bell. MI TIA CHRISTINA has the speed to stay close, and she could perhaps get first run on the expected pacesetter; note past success over this strip. LIL BAY CORVETTE may be the main threat in the lane, based on her best Beyer, including the figure she posted when last seen.

SIXTH RACE

GLOBAL NATION has been training very well toward her first start since July, and her trainer has solid stats with horses off this type of break; Kathleen DeMasi also does well with stretch outs. BERNARDIAN ships over from Gulfstream Park West and she’s the Morning Line favorite on the strength of her best turf figures; easily forgiven for that dull dirt try in her first start off the freshening. A GIRLS BESTFRIEND sports some interesting works, which seemed to have gotten progressively better as he has approached his debut; pedigree offers few clues as to his ability to handle turf but the board may be a better guide.

SEVENTH RACE

FIRE MISSION couldn’t overcome the race flow at Penn National last time, as a lack of speed in the field gave the frontrunners a big edge, but he should be better set up here; that scenario would likely enable him to improve off that last figure and run to his better Beyers. MR LIGHTNING BOY is one of the expected speeds, and he has been in very good form for some time, running 1st or 2nd in six of his last seven starts; certainly capable if able to avoid a race-long duel. NICK CAN FIX benefited from a forward trip in that last run, when 2nd, but he is versatile and he has to be respected off that figure.

EIGHTH RACE

STRAIGHT UP SMARTY was no threat when last seen but slow splits hampered her ability to close ground in the lane; she’s wide here but she has the speed to gain position and she does have some of the better figures in this field. FELT IN POCKET is down in price for her first start since August, which raises a red flag but also makes her a formidable foe; clearly the one to beat if she is able to run to her best races, and she has run well over this course when fresh in the past. MY GOOD VENEZUELA stretches out from sprints and does seem to prefer two turns; may fall into a perfect stalking trip from her inside post.

NINTH RACE

RESIDENT was in good form before heading to the bench for a brief break as he used his tactical speed to work out favorable trips and post a win and a close 2nd in his last two; looms tough today if he gets a similar trip. DOWN IN THE HOLLER comes off a similar line, where he sat the trip behind the speeds and wore down the leaders while getting the jump on the closers; merits respect off the resulting Beyer. UNBRIDLED PIPER was no threat to the winner after a slow start cost him position at Penn last time, but he was clear for the place and was flattered when the show horse returned to score in his next start.

TENTH RACE

YOU ARE INVITED does like to run 2nd but she has had excuses in several of those losses, including her last two, behind a slow pace last time and a tough trip two back, where she checked and lost all chance; can atone given some pace help. GLAM is in for a tag for the first time since her bow, when she was a close-up 3rd for $75,000; this is a bit of a suspicious move given the layoff but she’d hardly be a surprise. AURIGA was moving well through the late stages of her most recent and she could move forward today in her 2nd start off the short break; strong jockey/trainer combination at Tampa last year.