ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, ELEVATED VISION

FIRST RACE

On top it came down for me to VEE’S SUPER STAR and QUALITY STEP, and since the former has more upside making just his second start and will be a higher price, that’s the obvious direction to lean. Wide draw and lack of early zip impacted VSS’s debut and the way he ran at 5.5f there suggests this 6f trip will be better. Quality Step remains above claim price paid two back and exits a competitive showing vs. similar, though fact successful barn was willing to lose so early in career for a quarter gives at least a little pause. HIGHER PURPOSE had good speed before late fade debuting for barn that doesn’t often hit with first-timers. Drawn outside the other on-paper pace, though that’s hard to judge with firsters entered, too.

SECOND RACE

BARAVELLI’s morning-line odds of 5-2 don’t feel high enough to reach a “fair price” but in the end saw him as the most likely winner, though only just, to put him on top. Third start marks first for a tag, and the claiming price is just about the published auction price. Been given more than five weeks between starts - which could be a plus or a minus, hard to say from the outside. Blinkers on, for what that’s worth. If they stoke him up early he’s going to prominent from the start breaking from rail in race lacking a ton of pace. PERFECT HEIR got off to a poor start and encountered further trouble debuting for barn without a lot of first-time-starter success. Homebred owned by trainer is optimistically held firm for $25K tag and stand decent chance of improving substantially at a price. COOL MAN CLETUS, the 2-1 morning-line chalk, already is seven races into career. Contending form but at this point it’d be unwise to expect more than small incremental improvement.

THIRD RACE

LIGHTNIN FAST GIRL had the rail and didn’t seem to see out the two-turn sprint trip last out at CT. That was a conditioned claimer similar to this spot but her four starts before that came either in open claiming or starter-allowance competition. She’s getting potentially meaningful class relief and just barely qualifies here for the “nonwinners-of-2-since” condition having won May 5. Typical tactics could land favorable trip sitting just outside and behind a couple front-runners. TIZ EMILY AND JILL despite winning last and going up in class qualifies as “the one to beat” as she gets into this race under an N5L condition unavailable on most circuits. On the one hand she’s never come close to pairing up wins, but on the other she’s now 1-1 when in for this $5K price. At low odds we’ll take a mild stand against. If you want to try and make some excuses for her, or just think she could be cycling back around, LOST ON THE STAIRS not all that far removed (May, June) from clearly contending performances.

FOURTH RACE

PAST PERFECT’s race Oct. 14 might do here. There she was second to Sip of Sunshine, who was winning her second in an ongoing three-race streak at similar levels. Claimed and tried Nov. 17 under N1X allowance conditions, and while that didn’t end well, the new connections signal they still value the claim by running her back under starter-allowance conditions here. Sluggish starts in last two after displaying more pace over the summer. KNOCK OUT KID has lost as the favorite in two of last three starts and is listed as 9-5 chalk with no apparent solid edge over a few others here. Runs along decently without showing the spark so far to close the deal. MAE SAI PRINCESS was bet in debut and looked like a winner basically from the start. All credit there, and the entry back under starter conditions is encouraging, but she beat a soft field on a sloppy track and now must cope with post 1.

FIFTH RACE

Lots of difficult-to-figure races on this card, but this one ranks near the top. Go through the form of these horses and you might start to think there’s not a lot between $5K “B” races and this $12.5K “B” level. And if that’s the case, it might not be a bad idea to take JILTED RUNAWAY’s last-start $5K win with some seriousness. She was off nine straight synthetic races and onto dirt two back when a so-so third at this level, but at a square price I might guess she can reproduce that last showing. MRS. REMBRANDT beat a similar group Oct. 19 in a two-turn try like this one before running below that form last out in a one-turn mile. GREASED LIGHTNING might’ve moved a touch early when run down by Rembrandt two back - or might just be unwilling to hit the line in front.

SIXTH RACE

HAYNE’S FEVER has been in for a tag as low as $5K several times but might in his current form be up to winning this $16K conditioned claimer. Taken two back by aggressive connections for $12.5K and held his own against open $20K foes tougher than these last time. Has often shown more pace than that and could put it to good use here. MENACING claimed five weeks ago for this same price, and either new connections decided to take their time or were forced to take their time running back. What we do know is that L Gaudet barn has $3.85 ROI from most recent sample of first-off-claim starters. Established longer-term form is more marginal than solid at this level and therefore win odds any lower than morning line might be negative value. MY EMINENCE has the whiff of a claim gone awry but deserves one more chance to get closer to his Kentucky form.

SEVENTH RACE

ON THE HOP’s connections taking full advantage of the condition in this $12.5K claimer that permits any number of wins from a 3yo while restricting older horses to two wins. OTH a 7-time winner and while her two straight coming into this start were at 5.5 furlongs, she’s won over 7f and should be equally effective at this 6f trip. The C Gonzalez barn’s cray hot streak at the meet came to a halt last racing week. Here they drop SARAH’S TREASURE in for half the claim price paid five starts and three months ago. Appears to need a little more distance for her best and is 10-0-2-4 going threequarters of a mile. SPLENDOR GAL caved in at the furlong pole after setting pace going a one-turn mile at this class level, but not convinced it’s just as simple as turning back to six furlongs.

EIGHTH RACE

SHANE’S JEWEL stands a decent chance of shaking loose on the lead as he drops from fast-paced $100K stakes in which he dueled and tired into an N2X with a $35K claiming option his connections exercise. The class drop feels much more realistic than negative and at the published odds I’d prefer him on top to morning-line favorite HOME RUN MAKER. The latter looks generally ascendant and the J Englehart satellite string at LRL has been knocking out allowance conditions left and right. But his form taken as a whole suggests a horse with upside limited enough that even a class jump from N1X to a soft-seeming N2X allowance might be slightly too high a hurdle. That’s a possibility to consider more seriously at a short price. The relatively ageless GOLD MAN not likely to be overwhelmed by the class rise up to $35K claiming, but drawing the rail at a distance this short could present problems.

NINTH RACE

ELEVATED VISION has won both her dirt starts and wasn’t bad on turf, either, when last seen racing in May. Overall shape of things is of a filly with some talent. Keep in mind that those were early-season 3yo speed figures and with maturity she could easily produce something better if ready to fire after the long layoff — and I’m guessing she is. GHOUL’S NIGHT OUT is the favorite for good enough reason, I guess, though after a dozen starts this year alone expecting anything beyond established recent form seems imprudent. She’s also just 2-16 wins and got the second of those by just a neck after a very favorable trip while facing only five foes. PROPORTIONALITY racing at her fifth venue in five starts and didn’t seem to love CD last time. Moves from open to MD-bred / sired competition and could be dangerous if loose on lead from rail.

TENTH RACE

MYLADYCHARLOTTE was bet down to 6.9-1 debuting Nov. 8 in a race with 10 other entrants. That’s decent action, and she might have merely been undone by a very sloppy racing surface. Worked back Nov. 26 and perhaps worth another look returning at same level - provided the track comes up drier this time. MISS QUICK couldn’t keep up going 5.5 furlongs in debut and never got untracked going two turns on yielding turf last time. But those two races might have been means to an end, the end being this drop from $25K down to $16K maidens. VARIANCE should stay the distance, caught slop last time, just missed for this tag when claimed out of debut three back.