ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, CINNAMON TWIST

FIRST RACE

HOLLAND ROAD and PIONEEROF THE WEST just finished 1-2, separated by just a half-length here Nov. 12. Yes, that came vs. cheaper $10K foes but they could be lined up for a reprise as they get a most encouraging multiple-level price hike. HOLLAND ROAD showed speed and heart to win that day with Franco riding for the first time. He’s well drawn outside where he can use his versatility and Franco stays. PIONEEROF THE WEST rallied well in that Nov. 12 race. He doesn’t seem as quick as ‘ROAD so he’ll have to try and go get him again. It is most encouraging Metz not only saw fit to claim him for $10K that day, but that he gives him more-than-mandatory hike off the claim. TWIRLING TIGER is likely the one to beat. He comes off a solid third vs. more expensive $20K foes on this track at this trip Nov. 9. He has the tactical speed and versatility to give his rider options.

SECOND RACE

ATHLEISURE may be ready to turn the corner. Her first 2 starts here in the summer, weren’t very pretty but both came vs. much tougher straight maidens. She was freshened, fared better for $50K at SA Oct. 12 and was then a better 3rd for $50K there Nov. 2. Today’s further drop can do the trick. SASS MACHINE stalked the pace and stayed on well for 3rd in her debut at SA Nov. 3. Like the top pick her action came vs. more expensive $50K foes. She’s certainly eligible to improve with that run under her belt and today’s drop. CURRYFORTHREE BANG was a strong 2nd in her debut at this level here Aug. 2. She dueled and fizzled in her next 2 but has been freshened. A bullet work here Nov. 25 bodes well.

THIRD RACE

GOLDIE’S HILLS just missed by a neck when 2nd on LRC dirt Sept. 23. After a freshening he came back here on turf at this level and finished smartly to be a good 2nd at 17-1. He might be ready to turn the corner. His lone sib to race is Mona Storm (21-3-5-3, $97K). SNEEM showed talent on turf in Ireland when last seen, finishing 3rd. Trouble is,

‘when last seen’ was August 2017 so there’s a long layoff to deal with. The good news is he’s worked well, there’s no drop and trainer Sadler is strong off a long layoff. The gelding’s lone sib is Fastar (10-1-0-2, $17K). PITINO, a $950K son of Union Rags, hasn’t lived up to that price tag but his best race came on this course at this trip Aug. 30 when he rallied for 2nd (was DQ’d to 4th). His last 2 on turf weren’t as good but it’s nice to see no drop. O’Neill also adds blinkers and maybe that can get him back on track.

FOURTH RACE

CINNAMON TWIST blossomed at SA in the spring, posting 2 dominant wins, the first at this level April 13 and the next for twice this tag ($32K) there May 13. She hasn’t been seen since, which is worrisome but she’s worked steadily and if she can return at anywhere near that kind of performance level she’ll beat these. EMPRESS OF LOV stalked the pace and stayed on decently for 4th here Nov. 17. That run not only came after a layoff, it came vs. more expensive $25K foes so she has a race over the track and 2-level drop. It also doesn’t hurt Van Dyke, who’s in a fight for leading rider honors, takes the call. BRAGGING RIGHTS rallied smartly to beat cheaper, including a number of these, here Nov. 10. That gives her 3 wins in her last 5 starts so she’s on her game. She has versatility, too.

FIFTH RACE

REEDLEY looks to continue trainer Bob Baffert’s amazing run with 2yo firsters - he’s a phenomenal 18 for his last 25 (72%). That said, this guy cost $200K and they are willing to part with him for 40% of that price tag ($80K). At least continues to work well and there’s no ignoring Baffert’s record. The colt’s 2 sibs to race are Patton Proud (24-52-3, $143K) and Uncle Mojo (10-2-4-1, $158K). STRIKE THAT has worked in solid fashion for his first run for a trainer who also does very well first time out. EASY SHOT stalked the pace for $100K here Nov. 9 and stayed on decently for 2nd, even if he was no threat to a big winner (beaten by 5 lengths). This slight drop may do the trick. HIs lone sib is U.S.A. Colossus (15-1-0-3, $12K).

SIXTH RACE

NORTH COUNTY GUY looked like a new horse blasting lesser down the hill at SA Oct. 28. Sure, this spot is tougher and it’s first time going this far but the manner of that win hints the light has gone on for this guy, and it’s most encouraging Prat stays. EXTRORDINARY JERRY was far from disgraced when 6th in the Let It Ride here Nov. 10 as he was beaten by just 2 lengths. This slight drop may do the trick. After all, he didn’t miss by much at this level on SA turf Oct. 25. MOVE OVER got knocked around at the start going longer at this level at SA Oct. 5 and was unable to get involved. He’s been freshened and is surely capable of better.

SEVENTH RACE

IMPERIAL CREED looked absolutely smashing blasting maidens in her first try on dirt (also at this distance) at SA Oct. 5 as she sat well back, circled the field and won going away. That shows this (a mile on dirt) may be her game and it’s most encouraging that while they risked her for a tag that day they take no such risk with her here. STAY THIRSTY MY AMI GO comes here sharp off 2 straight wins, the last coming in a sprint at this level here Nov. 12. That shows she handles the track and while it’s first time routing she’s bred all over to handle this trip. She has speed and versatility, too. DIVINE DHARMA moved to a route for the first time at SA Oct. 26 and laughed at her rivals, romping by 15 1/2 lengths. She likely won’t get such a cushy lead here and must deal with winners for the first time but could be the light has gone on for her.

EIGHTH RACE

KY. COLONEL posted 2 straight wins at this trip at SA in the spring/summer before a couple months off and then a dull run here Aug. 18. Mandella has given him time to regroup and brings him back with a significant drop. Over the years Mandella has had ample success with big droppers like this. It’s encouraging Bejarano stays and note all 4 career wins have come at this distance. He is stuck way outside, however. RAPID RED wired similar going farther (1 1/8miles) at SA Oct. 28 and was claimed by Hollendorfer. He cuts back a furlong but has handled this trip well before. THE BIG TRAIN ran on smartly in his last 2 and figures to be coming again. A bullet work here Nov. 25 encourages.