ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, LIBERTARIAN

FIRST RACE

RANGER MARINI loves this sod and was running quite well at the end of last year before spitting the bit in his last start before the layoff. Didn’t something go awry in that race? What if this gelding just needed a break. He returned versus much better and he ran evenly for six furlongs before calling it a day. That’s fine. Now he drops in class while still finding a spot where he can’t be claimed. A shrewd move by team Kereluk. Race flow is fine and so will be this trip as Hernandez plays it coy from just off the front runners. JONNY’S CHOICE has speed and is feeling great. Second time this sod can only help. Why the barn change though? XTREME LYRA just ran a Beyer top and it came on this sod and in his first try for his new barn. The leading rider stays put and this horse goes third off the layoff. THREE RED SEVENS exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 72 and 54 (another returned to finish second with a Beyer of 67).

SECOND RACE

WILLIAM CROTTY should stalk a nice trip all while trying easier. He goes second time this dirt and gets a jockey upgrade to the leading rider. When Arrieta rides for Axmaker they win at 33%. DUST ROLLER has never missed the exacta on this dirt. This horse is feeling great and just ran a Beyer top on the grass and we don’t think that is his best surface. A stalking trip just like our top pick. FATS

DOMINUS is rail speed going a flat mile. Others have some zip but they could stalk and let this guy have the front end. Or maybe this horse floats the other speed into the turn and gets an early breather that way. He seems quite capable at this distance going 4-1-2-0. CALL IT LUKE is a horse we like a lot but he just doesn’t get enough pace today.

THIRD RACE

ISABIRD has some speed but so do a few others but this mare draws inside those so maybe, just maybe, she holds the rail. She can stalk if needed. Her most recent was much better and we think she likes it here. It wasn’t that long ago that she was facing open claimers up in Canada. DIAMONDS DENA likes to win so there is that (41-12-4-1). She

exits a key race where 3 of 7 returned to win with figs of 68, 68, and 56. This mare gets to save all the early ground and does get a decent pace to chase. Plus, the leading rider keeps the faith. The main knock is whether this horse likes this dirt.

RACING FOR CHASEN is the value. She has won twice on this dirt. Off the pace style is fine with us while most recent was better.

FOURTH RACE

Nothing jumps out here so perhaps this is a good spot for a first time starter. DANIEL RUN is by a 0 for 3 debut sire. His dam was un-raced and this is her first foal. Works are lengthy and most recent ones are well spaced. The last time this barn started a debut runner versus maiden claimers it won and paid $7.80. HE’S FOXWORTHY did show some speed two back. He comes in fresh and that might help sharpen his speed. BLITZING MARIO sheds the blinkers and has some decent figs of late. He will be coming from off the pace and there is some speed in here. Main knock is whether he will like today’s extra half furlong. If looking for a horse to play in the supers then perhaps THREEUPTHREEDOWN will offer some value. We kicked around putting him third.

FIFTH RACE

LIBERTARIAN gets good race flow, likes elongated sprints, drops in class, lures Arrieta, and has a recent work. If anywhere near morning line of 6-1 then you can add value play to that list. CANDY FOR THREE got an 82 Beyer only two back and it came second off the layoff. What if this colt is just best at this distance? He has worked twice since his most recent. We almost picked this guy on top. METAL MAGIC draws the attack post. He is feeling great and is 2 for 2 at this distance. Other speed is the main worry.

SIXTH RACE

NOT THAT I RECALL may have found 6 1/2 furlongs in her last two starts a bit far. She cuts back a full furlong today where she has never missed the exacta in four starts. This barn is 33% second off this type of layoff. A big jockey switch as Arrieta gets a leg up. BULLICIOUS does like this dirt which she proved once again in her last start when finishing a close second at almost 11-1. She cuts back a half furlong so that along with other speed should put her in a nice stalking spot turning for home. JAYA HO is speed. She was stuck between runners last out and that is not the place to be. We like the jockey switch to Stevens. Main worry is if the outside speed can harass this mare in the early going. If not, then she can press the inside speed and get a good trip.

SEVENTH RACE

COLONEL GOTHAM just likes here. Versatile style is a plus. He is often a good price. Connections find a good spot. MINISTER VIVENDI is a deep closer that gets good race flow. His most recent was a tad better. He draws OK and is often double digits. JUST NIK has speed and draws inside the other zip. When last seen on this dirt, two back, he won gate to wire. The last time this horse went turf to dirt he won as the chalk at Pleasanton (6 back).

EIGHTH RACE

DARRENATOR gets in light and might show some speed from his outside post. If he were to stalk the 8 then that would be fine also. Either way he should be forwardly placed. We think he needed his return try to some extent. We think this gelding is best on the turf. Here comes a great price. DARE TO ENTER tried this turf for the first time last out and ran well when finishing second at 11-1. Why can’t he improve second time on this sod? Current form is good and he draws nicely for a stalking trip. CURLY’S WATERFRONT just won for fun on this turf and did so while first out for new barn. As good as his most recent was it was still 10 points below is Beyer top. A new rider is named as Bourdieu recovers from a broken leg. PERFECT PRO is by a 0 for 1 debut turf sire. His dam went 5-1-3-0 on the green and banked 14K. This is her first foal to try the grass. A. F. INDY exits a key race where 2 of 4 returned to win with figs of 67 and 84 (another returned to finish second with a 68 Beyer).