ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, CARIBA

FIRST RACE

REGAL RETORT a first time starter debuting in a field where the experienced runners have done little to distinguish themselves so far and doing so for an excellent barn that has had a very good year with their 2yos; sire is off to a good start and the first four foals from this dam are all multiple winners. I’M GUILTY dropping off a debut where she was entered MTO and didn’t have enough to get involved after moving to the outside and trying a mile four-wide run on the turn. EXCESS CAPACITY can easily win this on the drop turn back for top connections but she has done little running so far and is going to be a short price.

SECOND RACE

WHERESTHEBARBER stepped up to try MSW competition off the Servis claim and was no match for those horses after getting a perfect trip, but she did earn a new top figure; drops back down looking tough to beat in this field. KILLALA BAY showed a little run after getting out-paced early in his career debut but hasn’t improved much at all from that run and he offered no resistance last time after making the early lead; cuts back a furlong while dropping in to face maiden claimers for the first time. GOLCONDA has been concentrating on turf lately and has run pretty well at big prices in his last two starts; back to dirt for a good trainer in a weak field.

THIRD RACE

RACHEL’S BLUE MOON has improved since getting more distance to work with and has a top race that makes her tough in this spot, but she bombed last time as part of a heavily-favored entry, though it did appear that something might have been amiss in that race, as she traveled strongly on the lead early before coming up empty when put to pressure; better than that and is entered back without a layoff by a sharp trainer. OUT OF ORBIT is part of an entry with the top one. She has disappointed overall and it took her a while to get back to the winner’s circle after winning her return to dirt back in June, which she did while matching her careerbest figure; caught a sloppy track last time and proved to be an easy winner over this distance. Liked the cut back for PINK TWIST last time off a short layoff but she didn’t seriously factor in that spot after RACHEL’S BLUE MOON gave it up; threat with her best race.

FOURTH RACE

TALESPIN brought $50k back in March after breezing 10.2 and debuts in a logical spot for a trainer who, while not one to one to crank up her firsters, is 2 for her last 9 debuting for a tag with winners at 20:1 and 5:1; dam is a winning sister to two stakes winners and has dropped seven minor winners so far. RALLY CAP had the speed to stay close and made a run to briefly look dangerous at the top of the stretch before coming up empty late in her debut; takes a logical drop making her second start for a very good trainer. CENTER CITY has moved to turf for his last two starts without success now comes back to dirt getting class relief and he has some speed to put into play.

FIFTH RACE

CARIBA had the rail for her debut last month and didn’t show speed from the break but she managed to keep up behind the leaders early and looked dangerous at the top of the stretch, but she couldn’t be ridden to best effect while continuing to get in and was outfinished; catches a field full of first time starters for her second start with a chance to improve significantly. KATAMA MOONLIGHT breaks from the rail making her debut so the break will be imperative; well-connected filly has the pedigree to be a runner as a full to the talented stakes winner Noble Moon, who unfortunately had trouble staying sound. BIRDY NUM a $1 million yearling who may want longer being by Tapit and out of Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can; fullbrother Believe in Royalty has never sprinted in his career but he is a stakes winner and just missed in the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby in September.

SIXTH RACE

LE GENERAL finished a good 2nd in a fast race making his debut in the slop back in June and he

returned with an even better effort when blowing out maidens with an 86 Beyer in his return from the layoff; 2yo by Lemon Drop Kid is bred to handle the added distance. BEACHSIDE and JUST RIGHT form a solid entry as they both exit maiden wins over this track and trip, but they were both favored to win those races and they both worked pretty hard to do so, BEACHSIDE as an MTO, though he did earn a new top figure. HONORABLE HERO ran well sprinting first time out then stretched out to the mile and got up late to win his second start; trainer change to Pletcher may bring too much attention to a horse who has to improve quite a bit in this spot.

SEVENTH RACE

SANAVI has run well in all three starts since arriving in NY this summer and is 2 for2 with back to back career Beyer tops since joining this barn; had a perfect trip into a fast pace when rolling clear two starts back but he ran better last time when staying on strongly after taking over in the stretch and he ran well over this distance around twoturns at Saratoga. LANGDARMA took a tough beat after making an early move to take that race over off the claim last time; stretches out for this but he has posted four of his five career wins around two turns. BON RAISON defeated two-life claimers over this distance at Saratoga over the summer then improved noticeably to win each of his next two starts off the claim for this trainer, who was on a very strong run at the time; have to worry that Contessa’s run has cooled off considerably lately, but this horse if getting major class relief for this.

EIGHTH RACE

I’M AN OCALA DUDE improved through racing at the start of his career and ultimately posted back to back blowout wins over this track and trip early in 2018, before making his next start in the Grade 3 Bay Shore and finishing a good 4th; returns as a new gelding while dropping in class after managing only two starts over the summer. DEVINE ENTRY goes turf to dirt and drops with the advantage of some recent racing over the top choice; won the first two dirt starts of his career before moving into stakes company, and he ran well in that Heft last December over a distance that appeared to be a little too far for him; dropping. FELIX IN FABULA just got up over this distance two starts back when making his second start off the claim for owner/trainer combo who have been having success together all year with horses like this; disappointed a bit last time in a race where the winner jumped up with a much improved effort but fits well here with his good race.