ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, CALL IT LUKE

FIRST RACE

ADELAAR isn’t bred to like the grass so we think his turf debut last out was a prep for this. This gelding just missed versus special weights up in Canada only three back. His ability to pass runners is especially key as there is good pace in this race. PARKING PERMIT has never run a poor one. He can pass runners and has worked three times since his last start. Added half furlong is a plus. THIRTY SECONDS OUT is the inside speed. He should hold the rail while taking pressure most of the way. It wasn’t very long ago that this guy was trying tougher. What if Scott Stevens takes this gedling off the pace? He did pass a runner two back. Here is where having a veteran jockey with a plethora of experience comes in handy. LEW’S SKYHOOK is by a 2 for 13 debut sire. His dam went 4-1-0-0 and earned 6K. This is her first foal.

SECOND RACE

BELLA GALINA just likes it here. She never got a breather last out but still ran well. We expect her to come from off the pace today and that should make for a good trip as there is other speed in here. The Axmaker barn shows a flat bet profit on the dirt, with claimers, and sprinters. ONE AFLEET STAR got a good trip last out and won as the chalk. She certainly likes this dirt and figures another good trip. New barn is the X factor. RAVIZZONE is a closer that gets good race flow and figures a good price. The main knock is that she hasn’t hit the board in three local tries. The drop into restricted claimers can only help.

THIRD RACE

TEQUILA COWBOY is by a 9% debut turf sire. His dam went 2-0-0-1 on the green and banked 4K. This is her first foal to try the grass. The Davis barn is 24% second off a long layoff. This gelding has worked twice since his most recent and Scott Stevens stays put. Turf breeding isn’t great but it isn’t poor either. We like that he puts races together for the first time. LICORICE DROP POPS is by a 11% debut turf sire. His dam went 6-1-2-1 on the grass for 77K (won grass debut). One of three sibs won on the green with another hitting

the board. Lots and lots of works for this. ROAD

ROMEO is by a 1 for 11 debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced. Three sibs failed to win on the weeds but all three did hit the board. Recent work was long and a good prep for two turns. The McFarlane barn is 20% on the turf. RAIN CROW is by a 5% debut turf sire. His dam missed the board in only turf try. Two of four sibs won on the grass. He exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 56 and 63.

FOURTH RACE

DEL MAR DIVA is feeling great and is already a horse for course. She adds two furlongs today and that might put her up close and personal as there just isn’t much pace in here. The Silva barn is 25% with their repeating winners. This filly has never tried this distance but her solid route tries previously hint that an elongated sprint will be appreciated. MADAME CLOUET has a nice even running style and that bodes well for this tricky distance. Form cycle hints at better. SEVEN CHANCES just ran huge and got a Beyer top. This filly is best with a target something that didn’t happen two back. We like this outside post.

FIFTH RACE

ZENSATIONALLY has speed and the rail. Main pace foe might be the 3 but that mare is a 9YO and might need a race or two to get rolling. If so, then maybe this horse can get an early breather or won’t be forced into a fast pace. Second time this dirt can’t hurt and it is nice to see her put races together. CUP OF SOUP just didn’t care for the grass last out. Those sprint tries 2 and 3 back were OK. The big question is whether she gets enough pace to set up her late run. ISABIRD is another off the pace runners. She was fractious in the gate in her most recent so we can easily discount that race. The Silva barn is a very good 35% off the claim. They are an even better 41% when the blinkers go ON.

SIXTH RACE

STURDY ONE is a solid SoCal sprinter and hails from a top barn. The layoff and recent poor stakes try are worrisome but we like her work tab. We also like that connections wanted stakes foes last out even if it didn’t work out. She figures to get a very good trip today as there is good speed in this race. We think she could get lost on the tote. FIGHT

TO GLORY is just good. That was a fine try off the layoff. She has a recent work and draws outside main pace foes. TORENO doesn’t have the Beyers that some of these do but that doesn’t change the fact that she has yet to lose and is improving by the minute. Can she stalk? That would be great as trying to beat this group on the front end could be problematic. We do like 3YO’s late in the year.

SEVENTH RACE

CALL IT LUKE is a deep closer that gets great race flow today. Current form is fine and he gets to save all the early ground. Glenn Corbett knows this 7YO well. This gelding likes this dirt and is often a good price. RONNIE CLOUD won’t be as far back early as our top pick. The Ferguson barn is 33% sprint to route. Current form is good and Arrieta keeps the faith. PLUM LUCKY has hit the board on this dirt in 6 of 10 starts even if he has yet to win. Off the pace style works well in this spot. We think recent turf start was a prep for this.

EIGHTH RACE

OBSCURE BREW turns around in 7 days and that is a 33% move for this barn. He cuts back in distance and that is a 21% move for this barn. Second time this dirt is a plus as is beaten favorite angle. PARLEY STREET did go favored in his debut versus better at Canterbury. Perhaps he didn’t care for an off track two back. His most recent was his best to date and the leading rider keeps the faith. DANIEL RUN ran well in his debut while not getting the best of trips. Connections waste little time finding him a race. A new jock is noted. UNUSUAL CHAMP is interesting.