ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, MINE THE COIN

FIRST RACE

PROMISE ME ROSES ran dismally first off the claim to be a well-beaten sixth, but seems to have exited the race well enough that she is wheeled back on a week’s rest for winning connections. If one excuses her latest, she fits based on her prior efforts in maiden $25,000 company. At least acts like a true dirt horse. DYNAMITE KITTEN, on the other hand, gives the impression of preferring turf to dirt. She began her career with two grass starts before a second and a well-beaten fourth in a pair of off-the-turf races. Her second was certainly quite respectable - perhaps one could make the case that she did not like being behind horses in her latest when fourth; enough speed to be an early force. YOUMAKEMEBLUSH is not particularly fast on figures, usually running Beyers in the mid-40s, but she is among the most dependable in terms of regularly contending.

SECOND RACE

DADDY D T is aggressively spotted for $20,000 after running fifth of six against $50,000 stock Nov. 11, a race far below form for him. He had previously shown much more when second for $40,000 in the slop; inconsistent of late but capable with a return to form. ITS ALL RELEVANT crushed $12,500 claimers on a sharp drop last out, but surprisingly has not raced since that Sept. 15 victory; steady works over the past month and a half, however, to go along with early quickness and back class. INDIAN GUIDE is short on speed, though he still possesses a fine 12-3-5-0 record on dirt. He failed to fire last out at Laurel in an allowance after a second when racing over an off track for $25,000 at Belmont.

THIRD RACE

SASSY AGNES is a deserving favorite, having won three straight New York-bred stakes. Her only apparent knock is that she is a frontrunner, and two or three of her five rivals also like to throw down early. That could lead to demanding fractions. CARTWHEELIN LULU is another stakes winner, though she lost her latest when fading to fifth when stretched out to a mile; perhaps a tactical advantage for her to be drawn outside the other speed. SHE’S SO SHEA D rallied from a stalking position to narrowly win first out before misbehaving in the starting gate most recently and ending up last of 12 in a stake. She possesses the right style to rally past at least some of the tired runners - provided she does not blow her race before the start.

FOURTH RACE

BRET’S LEGACY debuted with a third before regressing second out with a fifth, a race in which she was disappointing down the lane; hoping a freshening has allowed her to get back on track; enough speed to be close early on the drop from straight maiden into maiden $30,000 company. OH K FUNNYBONE chased in third throughout in competing at this maiden $30,000 level Nov. 29, a respectable try in his second start after a fifth on debut vs. straight maidens. ROUXHERE flashed improved speed second out with blinkers, though he had no finish in the lane, tiring to ninth over the final quarter mile. Easier maiden claiming company should suit.

FIFTH RACE

ANNE DUPREE could not keep up down the stretch with allowance and starter $50,000 runners, but ought to be more competitive against $40,000 N2L claimers; cutting back in distance may also benefit her. NEW YEAR’S WISH runs for a tag for the first time in her fifth start after weakening to be third in a first-level allowance at Laurel. She is an obvious contender but likely goes off at an underlaid price given her post-maiden struggles; one for one at Aqueduct. VOTRE COEUR did everything but

win last out when second, beaten a nose at this $40,000 N2L level, after gaining the lead between calls; respectable form in four starts for trainer Michelle Nevin this year and now in the third start of her current form cycle.

SIXTH RACE

MINE THE COIN showed the way in a fast-paced race for seven furlongs Nov. 10. He turned back the other speed, and then was run down by a couple rivals in the closing strides when fatigued to be third. Now he adds Lasix and is cut back to six furlongs, which should result in improved staying power. HAIKAL was one of those that rallied past MINE THE COIN when second. He delivered an eye-catching rally after struggling to keep pace early, but bear in mind that ‘COIN and the other early leaders were gassed. AMERICAN MANDATE has been right there in three starts and narrowly owns the top last-race Beyer, an 80. The horse that edged him last out at Churchill, Souper Jackpot, came back to run a close second to Garter and Tie in a stake at Gulfstream. That said, would have liked to have seen a bit more stretch fight over the final sixteenth from ‘MANDATE in his three starts.

SEVENTH RACE

Late-running CANDID DESIRE is just 9-1-0-1 this year and comes off a seventh-place finish, but rates on top with a stakes drop for the winning Jason Servis stable. This seems to be his level, running for $40,000 in an optional claimer against New York-breds. He won at Belmont under these conditions back in fast time in June - though this horse has not fared as well at Aqueduct, where he is winless in 10 starts; maybe Servis can bring about a little better from him here. MORNING BREEZ is among the most consistent in the lineup, though he settles for minor awards more than one would like to see (15-2-5-5 record). He possesses speed but is not a need-the-lead type. BENEVOLENCE has been spotted at this level in all four of his starts for his current form - rallying to be fifth, first, third, and second; has become more of a rallying type after sitting closer earlier in his career and sometimes giving way late.

EIGHTH RACE

A nice group of one other-than runners in the eighth...giving the nod to CERRETALTO, who has racked up a four-for-nine record, though eight of those races were New York-bred contests; nothing wrong with a prior try in an open first-level allowance when third at Saratoga to Honorable Treasure, a colt that has subsequently become stakes placed. AVEENU MALCAINU fell apart late down the late most recently, but his defeat was forgivable, coming after he chased a hot pace in the Cherokee Run Stakes on the Breeders’ Cup undercard at Churchill. Look past that loss and he was a fast allowance winner Oct. 4 and won a New Yorkbred stake as a younger horse. ROYAL ASSET has moved forward in two starts since being claimed by trainer Rudy Rodriguez, first running third for $32,000 and then winning an optional claimer for New York-breds on dirt. The latter win, however, came in a race that was taken off the grass and such races are usually a bit weaker than those scheduled for dirt.

NINTH RACE

HALLOWEEN HORROR has run well in three starts when in light under apprentices late this year, winning one race and running second a couple other times. The seconds came against a notch better $16,000 claimers; now back in for $12,500, the tag for which he was last a winner. ROCKFORD has experienced a frustrating year by going winless in nine starts, which has led to some equipment changes and him now taking a steep class drop. Blinkers return after he failed to make an impact in two of three starts without the shades following a prior equipment change in September. AVAST MATEY is one of the more appealing prospects in terms of his race record, though he rates behind the top two due to not racing since May. He won fresh in March and last November, but following much shorter layoffs.