ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, GLENGAR

FIRST RACE

TOMA gets in light and that might sharpen her early speed. What if she has matured since last seen in June? Two of three sibs beat winners (128K and 59K). This filly goes from a winless barn to a 19% barn that is 17% with new runners. Recent works are well spaced. The main knock is the rail start at this distance. STAR SEED CHILD has some speed and draws outside main pace foes. She goes second time this tricky distance and owns the best last race Beyer. Is it too early to hint that she might have a penchant for less? Probably. NEVISIAN SUNSET was stuck on the rail last out and broke dead last but still recovered enough to finish third. Turf figs are better than all but this isn’t the turf and those numbers might hurt today’s price to some extent. We will say that she has a nice running style for an elongated sprint. Plus, she goes third off the layoff.

SECOND RACE

LITTLE CAT GEE was buried on the rail in her last race where she promptly broke dead last but did recover enough to finish second as the favorite. She obviously draws better today. We like today’s added furlong. All four sibs beat winners including two of three that won routing. This filly might be closer to the pace than you might think. WICKED AWESOME won her debut which by itself is never easy. Then she tried first time winners and first time routing only to stumble at the start yet still beat a few home all while matching her debut Beyer (58). The cut back to one turn isn’t our favorite but we like how this filly battles. SECRET ZAR has a sire fee of $12,500 yet cost 70K. She ran well in her debut before breaking her maiden at Parx when beating 11 home. She has a recent work and might like a one turn mile.

THIRD RACE

ICE DOCKET catches a maiden race with some early speed and that should help this guy’s trip. We like how he ran evenly in his debut while beating half the field home. He also got some play in said affair when sent off at 7/2. Recent work is a plus. SHADOW BOXER did little in his debut but that’s OK as he showed some speed in his second start before calling it a day. His dam earned 159K (32-85-4). Lone sib is a multiple winner of 20K. Maybe this colt can continue to move forward while holding the rail today. TOP HAT TUNE is now a gelding. All 3 sibs beat winners. Drawing between speed horses isn’t a good place to be though.

FOURTH RACE

SON OF TYRANNY did little in his debut but it was a tough debut distance. We like that connections want a flat mile here as lone sibling to try routing is a multiple winner when doing so (11-3-3-1, 37K). This gelding’s mom is 12-1-5-3 when routing and earned 38K when doing so. This barn is 15% with their second time starters. A class drop is for good measure. GIO LEMON shipped over to Chuck Town and ran his best yet on the dirt. He cuts back to one turn which might hurt a bit but he is certainly going in the right direction. UNCLE POCKETS never got a breather when trying a route for the first time last out. He finds a good spot and should be involved early. LOVELY GAMES exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 61 and 60. HOT ON TIME exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 45 and 35. His dam went 4-2-1-1 when routing.

FIFTH RACE

STELLAR TRICK has run well in two of her last three route tries (1st, 3rd, and 5th). She has some speed and has won on this dirt before. This barn is a very nice 24% sprint to route. T’his filly won four back with today’s rider. SALLY O’PRADO exits a key race where 2 of 3 returned to win with figs of 72 and 69 (another returned to finish 2nd with a 68 Beyer). Second time this dirt can’t hurt and this filly does drop in class. Race flow isn’t the best for this closer though. BAD NANA used to have front speed so where did it go? Maybe she is just better now with a target? Her most recent was a tad better and she does draw inside.