ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, SHES A HEAT WAVE

FIRST RACE

MAGDALENA’S MOMENT beat special weights at Zia and that is all we needed to see. What if she has matured some since last seen in October? Versatile style is yet another plus. She is deserving of favored status. TWITTERATI went turf to dirt for Campo and that is often a good angle. Getting Arrieta helped and he stays put. Will this filly get enough early pace to help with her kick? First time winners is no picnic though. JORDYNSLUMBERJAK ran evenly for a half and then called it a day. That wasn’t a bad try all things considered. We like that connections keep the faith and keep this filly at this level. SHESAGAMBLINDEVIL exits a key race where 4 of 7 returned to win with figs of 59, 48, 34, and 38 (another finished 2nd with a 44 Beyer).

SECOND RACE

TOO TALL EDDIE is a 6YO making his debut but we have seen older debut maidens win here before. The biggest thing is that the leading rider gets a leg up in Arrieta. Sire gets 10% debut winners. His dam went 22-4-5-4 and earned 149K. Of 9 sibs to race, 7 won and 6 beat winners. Works are longer which should help with route debut. CHIEFTAIN’S LAD has good figs but they are turf figs. Lone dirt try was a while ago and he only beat one home. At least we know this distance won’t beat him. CELTURIAN has speed and the rail plus a jock that knows how best to use it. Beaten favorite angle also applies. SEVENTY SEVEN FLAT is by a new sire. His dam went 17-4-3-5 for 50K and this is her first foal. REAL LUTE exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 72 and 75.

THIRD RACE

MR. SHOOK is just good. Works are perfect. Here comes a nice stalking trip from the rail. The 5 and 7 provide the pace. KOTA COPY has good figs and lures the leading rider. Is 5 1/2 furlongs too short? What if he tries to mix it up early with the other speeds? He is still the one to beat as he does love this dirt but he is no lock. CIRCUS RIDE will try and crack the 5 and try to get some kind of breather before the stalkers/closers attack. He has won 6 of

14 on this dirt. Maybe he didn’t like being between runners last out. KELLYANNE did try top maidens in her debut. All of her starts since have been solid including her return try where she didn’t break well. As expected, there is some speed in this shortened sprint so race flow is fine. We like that this filly draws outside again. DISLITLEAGLECANFLY is the fresh face from NoCal.. The Silva Jr barn is starting the meet strong. This filly showed speed last out but we think she will stalk today and that is actually a plus. This is the first time that we have seen Hernandez ride for this barn. DARE SHE GOES is another off the pace runner. The change of scenery might do her some good. Local works are rather sharp. RONEE MARIE is by a 2 for 15 debut sire. Her dam was un-raced. Lone sib is 33-2-6-8 and earned 36K. KATIE LENA exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 45 and 14.

FIFTH RACE

MS WILD RUSH got some play off the layoff but just didn’t fire. That’s fine as this barn often gives their return runners a race. Notice that there is no panicky drop into claimers today. Race flow is fine and the price should entice. TRULY UNUSUAL is feeling so good that she actually ran well on the grass two back and we know she is much better on the dirt. She draws the attack post and has won 3 times at this distance. BOLT UP goes second time this dirt and lures the top jock in Arrieta. Hard trier draws well and might like an elongated sprint.

SIXTH RACE

SHESAHEATWAVE is bred to love the grass. That was a better try on this sod only two back and it was second off a layoff so further improvement was likely. But that didn’t happen in her last race now did it. She pushed the pace and never got a breathe and we think that more than anything is what hurt. She seems better with a target and that won’t be a problem today. We like the jock switch to Stevens. The class drop is the icing on the cake. GOLD FINGA has speed and might find the front end where an early breather awaits. This is her first try on this grass but she is bred to like the green. FRUITY is feeling good and now goes third off the layoff. She will be the popular pick.

SEVENTH RACE

PECOS DANCER just loves it here. The layoff is short and she has a recent work so all good. This barn shows a flat bet profit with their repeating winners. Race flow is fine for this stalker. MY CRAFTY GAL just ran tons better and now goes third off the layoff. Her last race Beyer is the best last race figure in the field. She wants to pass runners. A recent work is noted. VICTORIA’SPROSPECT is fresh speed and that is often the best speed. The leading rider gives it a go. Lone dirt fast start wasn’t very good even if it was versus better at Del Mar.

EIGHTH RACE

ELEVENELEVENTWELVE should be a good price. This outside post going only five furlongs can’t be helped. The last time this gelding ran bad was back in 2015. Sure, he has been running at minor tracks but this field isn’t that tough. He has some speed but can stalk. We would like to see more than one listed work but then again it helps the price. DISTORTEDATTHEBAR exits a key race where 2 of 4 returned to win with figs of 72 and 67. Current form is fine and we like this up and coming rider. LODE THE GOLD often gets a ton of play. The class drop is big. Race condition fits nicely. C C N’ WATER is a price super horse.