ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, MAKE YOURSELF AT HOME

FIRST RACE

A four-day race week (Sundays are now part of the Tampa mix) gets started with a $16k mdn.claiming sprint in which LA PICHU would do well to duplicate her opening-day effort in which she was part of a three-way charge to the wire; inside stalking trip under leading jock Camacho is on order. BAYOU’S LEGACY comes well-drawn in the open-air outside box after finally coming alive in Maryland last out; can take them deep. PURE SUGAR was competitive when making her first start for Bernie here 3 weeks ago; wouldn’t be a major surprise.

SECOND RACE

Whistling win for HELEN ROSE in clearing her N2L condition in her local bow 3 weeks ago points her out as the one to beat on this nominal raise, especially when drawing Gallardo and the outer post; plays come-catch-me in this tougher split (with race 3) of this N3L spot for the ladies. THEOREM can pose a late threat, assuming O’Connell has her primed following the 8-week layoff; will have ground aplenty to make up. BRIDGE OF SIGHS, also a last-out winner at the N2L level, figures in the mix for Arriagada, who’s enjoying an outstanding meet so far.

THIRD RACE

The fact this is clearly the weaker split of the N3L filly-mare race (with race 2) helps make MAKE YOURSELF AT HOME the best bet of the day; chestnut gal got a race over the local surface following a heady effort in Philly, and now she’s very likely to benefit from a stalk-and-see trip from the outer when facing a questionable set of rivals. MIGHTY MINI fits the company, though it’s worth noting she has been away 4 months, which surely is a detriment; can be along for part nonetheless. SCOTTISH SKY has the best Beyers in here, albeit on turf or synth; she’s the unknown quantity when making her first start for a new barn.

FOURTH RACE

Back two weeks after being favored in what shapes up as the obvious key race toward this, GIFTED PATH looks to make amends when likely to attend all the pace in this bottom-level mdn.-claimer under Castanon, who’s in the midst of yet another career revival; a little follow-through would do. MRS. MET might be a tad better on grass but fits here nonetheless when dropping subtly in her first crack for O’Connell while adding Gallardo; will spot the others an early edge. AMERICAN HALO, like FAST POINT and a few others, took part in the key Dec. 5 race when acquitting herself respectably.

FIFTH RACE

Something about this bottom-level N2L route brought out some rather ugly numbers (1-for35, 1-for-32, 1-for-27, etc.), and it’s against that refuse-to-win backdrop that OLLIVANDER should be the one to beat, even after he didn’t run particularly well in his dirt debut last out for the Hamm barn; stretchout and the disproven opposition should get him much closer to the top today. BURTON is 1-for-21 but draws the rail when able to claim a Beyer edge; logical player. LORD ANTHONY, a probable pace factor when being sent from the outer post, goes turf-to-dirt when likely to get another piece of a purse.

SIXTH RACE

This grass race for high-end mdn.-claimers could stay all in the Bennett family, with THE KID ROCKS liable to improve enough for perennial leading trainer Gerald to prevail over RHYTHMIA, trained by son Dale; those two are the principals in a

race with plenty of interesting elements. FIVES

WILD stands to do much better for Motion when stretching out while fitted with a first tag, while FORT DESOTO, KAPALUA (blinks/Lasix), and the uncoupled Sweezey pair of PIONEER MAKER and NOONSIGHT all merit close looks for inclusion. There’s certainly no lack of early speed in this 2x alw. sprint for fillies, a scenario that might well favor GIBBY, who’s been regrouped in Boynton since being turned over to Navarro; we all know how well this type tends to fare for a trainer bearing down on the 200-win milestone for 2018. Simillarly, SILLY FACTOR could see a too-fast pace unfold in her favor; outer box can help this gray gal trip out nicely in her search for a third straight triumph. PRIMO EXTREMO has a spot of class and could benefit from the surface/distance switch after going a turf mile last out.

EIGHTH RACE

A solid group of turf milers convene in the nominal Wednesday feature, one with ample speed to set the table for SPECIAL ENVOY, a Delacour trainee who’s fresh, fit, and eager; Virginia-bred 7yo was overmatched in the Red Bank but has shown himself capable with this kind, even after having been sparingly used this year; announces his presence once they straighten away. MARCH is a class act who also has appeared infrequently in recent months; not often do you see a 6yo of his caliber adding blinks, but yup, there they are; best effort logically would make him a real bear here.

MY BARILEY is yet one more stone-cold closer in fresh off the bench.

NINTH RACE

Gotta like the way SPRING UP sustained a bid into the fray when going two turns in his local debut nearly 3 weeks ago, and have to think this slight cut-back in distance will be more to his liking; needing a patient ride from Mena to complete this task. BOLD RESPONSE is a mandatory consideration, even with that awful Nov. 30 drubbing to mar otherwise respectable form; draw a big red line through it. POLYGRAM has kinda just been going thru the motions, but yes, he does fit well enough for these bottom-N1Y conditions.

TENTH RACE

An interesting turf mile to end this 10-race card has a handful of main contenders amid an oversubscribed cast of 2yo fillies, with ROJO ROCKS getting a tepid nod from nd this corner to take us home a winner. No, she was never close in those 2 Ky. tries, but boy those were tough groups, and now she’s in for a mere $16k tag with benefit of those experiences; just the kind to show dramatic improvement for Wilkes. LEMON WATER has been 6th in each of her first 3, but the margin of defeat was respectable in the last 2; can improve her standing here. LADY GUSTO returns to the Chavez fold with a couple of decent efforts on her paper; liable to play a part, as could ARISKA, TANGO CITY, or SHE’S CHOOZY.