ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, NAPLES LEGACY

FIRST RACE

SHORT KAKES has been laid up since failed turf attempt back in early June but returns sprinting over Aqueduct surface where she has won three of her last four starts, including stong listed stakes win with a career-best figure in March; has to be close to her best off the bench but is nicely posted on the outside in a race without much pace. ESTILO FEMENINO dropping out of a pair if runnerup efforts in stakes company out of town and she may appreciate getting back to six furlongs after getting a look at that last one but weakening late over seven; has earned three straight Beyers in the 80’s and may play out as the main speed as she makes her second start for Asmussen. PLAY IN WITH THE BOYS had compiled a solid record for her prior trainer at Finger Lakes and she improved on that form for Baker earlier this year, winning back to back races over this track while posting the top two figures of her career; got in a run off the layoff last month where she went up in the air at the start to wind up back off the pace in a race that was won with a 96 Beyer.

SECOND RACE

IONA MOBE has managed just two well-spaced starts to this point in his career but he did run a race first time out at Keeneland that projects to make him tough against this field, and that remains his lone start over fast dirt to date; returned from a layoff at Saratoga and chased the fleet Fully Vested over a wet track before weakening late. MIRACLE HILL debuted in a MSW race that didn’t appear to be very strong and he sat a nice trip in that race, but he also took a game run at it before flattening out late and settling for 3rd behind a pair of experienced rivals; eligible to improve with that run out of the way and it’s not like the others in this field are that reliable. INTO A HOT SPOT a stablemate of IONA MOBE’s also by Into Mischief and he debuted in that same muddy track sprint at Saratoga back in July, where he showed brief speed and tired; starts back looking to catch fast going with Lasix on.

THIRD RACE

CREA’S BKLYN LAW seemed one with promise early on while getting shots in several graded stakes as a 2yo, but he never really panned out for prior connections while going 1 for 17; has to improve again in this spot but he exits the best race of his life off the claim for sharp connections where he finished strongly after showing newfound positional speed. MISSLE BOMB settled for second-best when hiked up to this level last time but he ran another good one in that spot while matching his career-best figure; reliable 5yo has now finished in the exacta in nine straight (six of them wins) while earning competitive figures right along. GNARLY a new face shipping on from Laurel with a bug rider to break from the rail but he is on the improve and exits a couple of allowance races where he faced some better horses while chasing fast paces. CONSENSUS THINKING rode a good rail to a top-figure victory in his first start for Rudy and he didn’t run as poorly as it looks in his next start after a wide trip; rallied gamely for second last time into a race that set up well for that style and will go as a new gelding this time.

FOURTH RACE

NEW YORK HERO is not without something to prove as he returns to the NYRA circuit following back to back wins at Finger Lakes for his new trainer, but he is one who started out with some promise for his prior conditioner, running well first time out and then jumping up to blow out maidens over a one-turn mile in his second start with a 78 Beyer; like him getting back around one turn for this after sitting a nice trip and then making the move he had to make to drive down an early-moving Incorporate last time. RO BEAR stepping up following a win over course and distance with a career-best 89 Beyer vs. $16k claimers last month but doing so for a sharp trainer while in form; clearly tough here if he can repeat that last one and he actually ram better than it looks two back when keeping after a good pace in a race that fell apart late. LOCAL COUNSEL hasn’t shown himself to be anything special so far but he has been progressing the right way from the start and earned the best figure of his career when kicking away from a weak field of maidens most recently; tactical speed a benefit in field where the likely pacesetter faces distance questions.

FIFTH RACE

MOTAGALLY debuted in a very strong maiden

race sprinting and appeared to be one looking for more ground while hard-ridden throughout but racing on gamely late; bobbled at the start when stretched out to a mile last time and raced on for 3rd, now stretches out to a distance that he may appreciate. MORETTI debuted in a race originally scheduled for turf and kept on late to get up for 2nd after getting an overall good trip in that race; well-bred colt has the pedigree to handle the stretch out and enters with the top figure in the field for that debut run. LISBON debuted long on turf and actually ran well in that race despite flattening out late; Quality Road colt has the pedigree to handle dirt on the bottom.

SIXTH RACE

NAPLES LEGACY cut back to sprint in stakes company at Laurel last time and couldn’t make an impact after getting outrun early, now drops back to a better level with dirt form to be tough over a distance she can handle; was up against it from a distance perspective in both Saratoga starts over the summer, but her two fast dirt starts at Churchill earlier this year will make her very competitive here. MO FLASH ran well twice over this course and distance early this year, first when wide over a track featuring a strong rail and then coming right back to grind out a win in the slop; steps up after going back to back on dirt for Eddie Barker while earning the top two figures of her career. MY GIRL ANNIE has posted all three career wins over the one-turn mile and has won two of her last three starts while showing speed; starts ar part of an entry with VIP NATION, who is also not without a chance, though she received a very nice trip last time and likely didn’t run as well as SMILES FROM SADIE in that spot.

SEVENTH RACE

DYNAMAX PRIME kept running well for his prior trainer while facing some good fields on this circuit but he couldn’t seem to find the winner’s circle and shipped off to Finger Lakes with a 1 for 16 overall record; has won three of six for this trainer up there, now ships back down and lands in a race that projects to set up well for him with plenty of pace signed on. LION SLEEPS has some improving to do as he takes the ride down with the top one but he has been in good form this year and did earn a career-best figure two starts back in the mud; won three times around two turns already this year, but like him getting to cut back around one tun for this, as he proved to be at his best when turning back in distance last year. THREE TO THIRTEEN maybe facing a difficult pace scenario as he breaks from the rail with speed but he has earned a couple of recent figures that suggest he will be tough in this spot and he may just have the best early speed in this field; main concern being that his two recent wins came out of town for vs. claiming company.

EIGHTH RACE

D’AMBROSIO was defeated as a heavy favorite when dropped in class here six days ago but he has a bit of an excuse there after going up at the start to wind up outrun early in a race where Incubator was loose on the lead; back quickly off the claim with several figures in tow that tower over this field. CURLIN CREEK stepping right up off a maiden win earned in his first ever start on dirt, for which he earned the top figure of his career; logically spotted for his first start with other winners for a barn that sports a good record at this time of year in NY over the past couple of years. LEAP TO GLORY tried turf to no avail when last seen now comes back to the main track with a needed drop in class after facing better in his two dirt starts at Saratoga following his maiden win, which came in easy fashion while making his only start to date vs. claiming company.