Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
ANALYSIS
FIRST RACE
For a turf sprint, there is very little speed in this race. The last time that FIXED POINT returned off a layoff, he won gate to wire in a turf sprint at Saratoga. Fresh speed is often the best speed. This colt can stalk just as easily. The Serpe barn shows a flat bet profit with turf sprinters. SAMBUCCA STEVE has speed and the rail. With a good break and if Batista were to really gun then maybe this gelding could find the front end at a nice number. He looks capable if this comes off also. BLUE CHIP PROSPECT is 1 for 1 on this sod and his 84 Beyer is a top. He came from off the pace in his most recent but maybe that was because he broke 7th of 8. It was still a very nice try.
SECOND RACE
ICE SHOW ran well in her first three starts and that included a road trip to GPW. Her recent turf debut had her beat only two home but her turf breeding is marginal. She has worked since her most recent even if at Tampa. She has some speed but we think she could stalk if Reyes can get her to relax early. A good price we would think. PRETTY OVERDRIVEN is pure speed. When last seen on this dirt, she won gate to wire. The main problem is that she figures to have to send hard for today’s front end. We like that she has worked twice since her last start. NIKKI BELLA is the X factor. She takes a big drop in class but has a plethora of layoff lines. She might add more speed to a race that already has two proven front runners.
THIRD RACE
NUCLEAR CODE was feeling good going into his local debut but then showed very little going a flat mile. That race is too bad to be believed. He is now better acclimated to here. He gets a weight break while dropping in class and shortening up all while catching a race that isn’t very tough. NO DINERO just ran better and has put good races together before. Versatile style is a small plus and he does draw outside. Yet to win on this dirt is a knock. SHIM may not have cared for GPW (the old Calder racecourse). Local tab is fine at 3-1-1-0. A better break would help a lot as that wasn’t the case in his last two.
FOURTH RACE
FIRST GROWTH has heart and more wins than 2nd and 3rds combined. He isn’t used to being 13th at the first call but that is where he was last out in the CC Express. He did pass a few foes late and was returning off a layoff. This 6YO may not be as good as he once was but he still loves this dirt. We think he is over looked on the tote today. MUSICAL HEART is feeling good, draws well, keeps Maragh, and has never missed the board on this dirt. DELTA BLUESMAN is a hard trier that actually came from off the pace in his most recent. We like versatile runners. His new barn is 15% off the red tag. Good luck making sense of today’s pace picture.
FIFTH RACE
MISS ACCUSE ran OK in her two turfs starts and that makes perfect sense and she is bred to love the grass. The longer the better. Works are fine. Class drop will scare some and we can’t blame them but on the other hand she hasn’t started since February. Her turf breeding is the best in this field. OH WHAT AH MOMENT is knocking on the door. Her turf experience comes in handy today. This barn is 36% on the grass. This is a good spot to use her tactical speed. SOROA is working well. She was saddled with tough posts in her first two grass starts. She has improved her Beyer in every start even if by not that much.
SIXTH RACE
DUBULL won when last seen off a layoff and it was at a tough return distance of 6 1/2 furlongs (at Tampa). His local tab is fine as are his recent works. We spy three or four runners runners in here with speed and that should set the table for this closer.
SCOTUSCARE is the inside speed. He should hold the rail and by this race you should know how speed is playing. We like 3YO’s late in the year. It looks as if this gelding loves his new barn. VINCERO is an improving 3YO that has speed but can stalk. He did win his only local start. If able to sit just behind the speeds then maybe his trip is best.
SEVENTH RACE
EXCHANGE FEVER got some play in her debut and it came in a turf sprint at Saratoga. Lone sibling is a multiple winner that never tried the green. This gelding has fresh speed and especially in a turf sprint that is the best kind of speed. The Weaver barn is 28% special weights to maiden claimers. SNOOSE GOOSE was stuck in the 11 hole in his most recent. He ran OK for a half before calling it a day. We like that he put races together. His turf breeding is actually solid. Second time this sod is a plus as is the cut back. NO BANG NO BOOM is by a 1 for 4 debut turf sire. His dam went 2-0-0-1 on the green for 4K. This is her first grass foal. What if this gelding has matured since last being seen in April? Works are well spaced, he lands in a good barn, and is now a gelding. RECAPTURE is by a 1 for 5 debut turf sire. His dam never tried the grass. Lone sib is 7-1-2-1 for 33K but never tried the green. ELUSIVE RO is by a 0 for 9 debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced. Two grass sibs are a combined 3-0-0-0 on the weeds. FOREVER MO is by a 18% debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced. Lone grass sib missed the board in only turf start. ARTYOUGLAD is by a 11% debut sire and a 12% debut turf sire. His dam went 8-3-1-2 for 106K (3-0-0-1 on the grass for 8K). Both sibs won and one beat winners but lone to try the green went 3-0-0-0. FREE FLAYME is by a 10% debut sire and a 0 for 9 debut turf sire. His dam went 5-3-0-1 for 116K and won her 2YO debut (1 for 1 on the grass, 50K). This is her first foal.
EIGHTH RACE
WORTH AVENUE gets in light and figures a great trip. She loves this dirt. Her even running style bodes well for today’s added furlong. Her last race came back key when 2 of 3 returned to win with Beyers of 74 and 78 (the other returned to finish 2nd with a 76 figure). She has worked four times since her most recent and now goes third off the layoff. Lots and lots to like. SHE TAKES HEART looks better if you discount those tries versus graded foes 2 and 4 back. Local tab is fine. The last time she tried a flat mile on this dirt she won gate to wire with a 79 Beyer (7 back). A good trip can be had if she gets a second Lone F trip behind the 6. LESLEY MAY can ship and run well. She is just better since returning off the layoff. Gaffalione lands here and he is 3 for 8 for this barn.
NINTH RACE
MAX K. O. is by a 13% debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced. One of four sibs won on the grass and is a multiple winner. This colt has good speed and better turf breeding. Does this outside post force a front end try? We certainly hope so. VOW ME NOW is a new turf horse. Now, can he transfer that good form here? Some horses that like the GPW grass don’t like this grass and vice versa. His turf breeding is solid at least and he has a recent work. TACTICAL QUALITY didn’t get a fast pace two back but won from well off the pace anyway. His turf breeding is actually solid and he did get a 60 Beyer on the Ellis sod. What if he is better now than when last seen on the grass? FIRST AND THREE is by a 11% debut turf sire. His dam never tried the grass and this is her first grass foal. SI ES GOYA is by a 0 for 9 debut turf sire (2 for 20 with all turf starters). His dam was un-raced. Two sibs never tried the green.
TENTH RACE
MATH WIZARD draws the attack post for this tricky distance. Three of six sibs beat winners. This colt showed speed two back and then came from off the pace in his most recent. Sure, he was hammered at the start but he still learned to pass runners. We like that. Now can he fire his best with only a single local work. TITERE is by a 9% debut sire (sire stats are for 2YO’s only). His dam went 31-1-11-5 and earned 35K. Two of three sibs won and both beat winners (33K and 59K). Works are well spaced. GUERRERON just ran a Beyer top and that is the best last race figure in this field. Second time Saez can only help. Main knock is that there isn’t much pace in this race. COMMANDER FISH is by a 15% debut sire. His dam went 1-0-0-0 and this is her first foal. MAXIMUM SECURITY is by a 16% debut sire. His dam went 19-2-2-4 for 37K. Of 3 sibs to race, 2 won and both beat winners to the tune of 127K and 44K.