ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, MANDEL

FIRST RACE

Given the pedigree here and purchase price there’s something a little rotten in Denmark regarding ASTRO POP KID. That said, these are route bloodlines and the barn that claimed him for this $25K tag apparently had two turns in mind. Route try off claim came on grass and didn’t work out, but stretch back to two turns on dirt here comes after a useful 7f PRX run and with addition of blinkers. Mild call as possible value. SOVEREIGN RULER went evenly facing 10 MSW foes sprinting in career debut. Set up for competitive effort in this $25K one-turn mile. SOUTHERN RULES was first blinkers last time and got into the race a lot sooner, to good effect. Ceiling perhaps not quite as high as a couple others but only needs to maintain to contend. DYNAMIC KID and to perhaps lesser extent first-timer MULTIPLE two more to consider in what looks like evenly matched contest.

SECOND RACE

LADY BY CHOICE has held up through 15 starts this year so no reason to believe she buckles in start 16. Comes out of an N3X allowance that was humdrum for the level, but this still is a meaningful class drop, and because she’s a 3yo no claiming-tag risk is required despite six 2018 wins. Cut back to 6f from 7f a plus and she got the wrong kind of pace-dueling trip last time. AUTOBAHN EXPRESS ran for a quarter three back but for the third start in a row is entered under starter-allowance conditions. Can see why - she’s an improving filly. Settling into comfort zone as one-run closing sprinter. MARGIE’S MONEY got a great setup in easy win at this level last time and seems unlikely to produce a second straight career-best.

THIRD RACE

MANDEL cut back to this 6f trip from one-turn miles and two-turn routes last time, and not only was able to keep up early, he tracked a hot pace. There’s little real speed entered here and if he breaks alertly from the fence he might never be caught. MACHO MIAH encouragingly spotted at this level trying LRL for the first time after being moved into Englehart’s local string from FL. He might have to do the dirty work of chasing Mandel, however. TO BLAVE is fast enough - if he’s willing enough. 6yo still N3L-eligible.

FOURTH RACE

A festival of droppers, this $5K B race. MISS GRAY was pretty darned dull on Nov. 30 and you’ll have to decide how much to hold that against her. The two turns probably didn’t help given superior oneturn form showing, but that doesn’t totally account for lack of spark. All that taken into account the drop down to $5K here might well be more aggressive / realistic than negative since this is the price for which she was claimed four back. On one of her better days she stalks and pounces from this draw. AVILLES another of the many down from higher claiming tags. Appeared to tail off in October and November; thus, one assumes, the freshening into this. STELLAR TRICK could get first run on likely pace-setter Splendor Gal. She disappointed when dropped to this level two back but can’t rate far below the top selection in a spread sort of race.

FIFTH RACE

Normally I’d side against a horse like ARRIVEDERCI, a short price dropping considerably off the last claim price following a disappointing performance. But there is just so little to grasp onto among the rest of the entrants in this bottomlevel maiden-claimer. WE MADE IT beat a steady retreat last out returning from a two-month layoff while making first start in new barn. He’s down to his lowest level and has a touch of pace. Races with blinkers off; small sample size theater but barn with two wins from last five such equipment changes. 11-race maiden SEVENTYSEVEN FORCE is in good form but has lost for maiden-claiming tags as low as $5K.

SIXTH RACE

BARLEY JACK freshened for six weeks trying again at the N2X allowance level. She probably clears the condition this time, albeit at modest odds. Relatively short field is light on true pace players and with an alert break from fence she’s probably loose on the lead - and good enough to make that tactical edge stand up. NYX WARRIOR figures equally effective at this one-turn mile but has developed some especially strong herd tendencies. Last win seven starts ago came over only four foes. Needs someone to take on the top pick. NY-bred INDY’S LADY still has N1X condition available at AQU and wrestling with question of why she’s in MD now. Has gotten on a steady local work patter for barn hitting .333 at meet. Still with some upside.

SEVENTH RACE

Understanding horses debuting for a $10K tag carry an anchor (if they’d actually trained any good they’d be starting out at a higher level), SEA CANDY hardly could find a softer spot for her unveiling. Work pattern has some gaps but she’s been going somewhat steadily since early September and you’d think she’d at least fit enough to show whatever it is she has. GATEAU ST HONORE rates as a not-so-good $25K claim at this point and after failing to win last time on the drop to $10K the approach at this point probably is just enter and hope. That’s not the sort of short price one should be taking to win. BRUSHING gets her first look at $10K maiden-claiming and despite looking quite limited still merits a long look with this group.

EIGHTH RACE

Sure, I’ll bite on 1-27 wins CHOCOMOUNT. Claimed on first drop to this $5K tag on Oct. 26, and whether by design or out of necessity he comes into this a fresh horse with recent works. What does appear to be design is the stretch from a sprint back out to a better two-turn trip. Hoping tactical route speed can get him some sort of position before the turn. IWISHIWASPECIAL is questionable to adequately stay this trip but rates a solid win chance if stamina doesn’t trip him. After running the two best races of his life his last two starts, RUNABOUT is a regression candidate at a short price.

NINTH RACE

Toughest race of the card. No meat on this bone. BORN TO SHOP tries a new circuit and a new surface. MSW dropper doesn’t need to be much to win fourth time out and is still entered above the published $10K purchase price. Most of AMERICAN STAR’s beaten lengths last time came to a runaway winner and the one-level maiden-claiming drop here helps. What the Charles Town MSW to LRL $16K MCL move means regarding BIZZY BELLE I’d have a hard time saying. On pedigree the move to a mile doesn’t hurt.