ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, SHIMMERING MOON

FIRST RACE

FOX RED easily wired a field when dropped off the layoff two starts back then faced tougher off the claim and tried gamely before falling to a strong winner in a race that came back fast (93 Beyer) here eight days ago; drops back in class once again with speed from the rail. TAKE YOUR PLACE won two in a row in July, including a game run from last in a shorter sprint like this one, and he faced much tougher in his two starts upon returning from the layoff in October; versatility gives him options in his first start for Toscano. MONTELEONE was laid off off the claim in August and ran deceptively well off the layoff when putting in a game wide run around the turn vs. starter allowance rivals; easily defeated a weaker field last time when going with speed over a sloppy track.

SECOND RACE

COOL CRINOLINE didn’t do that much running while making his debut around two turns at Finger Lakes over a wet track but he was racing on late to gain some ground before galloping out past the winner, and he is the one with the room for improvement in weak-looking maiden field; blinkers on. LOCAL EDITION has made his last two starts at this level since switched to dirt, the first of those vs. big class-dropper Okeamo, and picked up some pieces without threat while earning figures in the low 50’s; should be forward from the outside post off the trainer change. RUN FOR BOSTON makes first start in a scheduled dirt race since his career debut back in July of 2017 and does so as the ML favorite while pulling Franco from LOCAL EDITION; lack of speed the main drawback at a short price.

THIRD RACE

REPLICATOR has to improve making his second career start but he appeared to need that first one while racing a bit greenly early over a sloppy track and staying wide, before failing to make a late impact behind his heavily-favored stablemate Allured; will give him the chance to come forward with that one behind him, along with fellow second-time starter DANCE FOR ORO, a half to Moreno who was taken back to last early in his debut and failed to come up with a strong finish while on his wrong lead all the way; trainer excels with second time starters. ZEALOUS has settled for second-best in each of his last three as an MTO in races rained off the turf; figures earned from his last two make him the horse to beat, unless one of the top two can improve.

FOURTH RACE

MISS LOYALTY has posted both wins over wert tracks but she is the lone entrant to win twice routing in her career and she has speed; back to a more appropriate level after trying a much tougher spot last time. LITTLE NANNY has improved in three starts for this trainer, posting a win and two placings at Finger Lakes while earning the top three figures of her career; class relief for this after facing better in her last two starts. MERCURIAN may be better suited to sprinting but she has faced better in her recent attempts routing and has earned competitive figures for those efforts; projects to be forwardly placed in this spot as stretches back out.

FIFTH RACE

EASY BANKER has speed on both sides of her pedigree, being by a good new sire in Central Banker and a half-sister to the speedy stakes-winner Nine Route from the female family of the multiple stakes-winning sprinter Apprehender; good post for a trainer who can win with a first time starter. ANALYZE WITH HONOR debuts for Rudy, who is more than capable with first time starters overall and winning with 22% of his 2yos debuting for a tag over the past five years ($2.49 ROI); dam was a turf horse but her four winners thus far have all been successful on the main track. CALL IT A TRUCE dropped to this level last time and finished a no-threat 3rd behind a longshot winner while getting outfinished for 2nd by 51:1 SHE’S A LUMBERJANE; does have that career debut run which would make her very competitive here.

SIXTH RACE

WE SHOULD TALK hasn’t come close in his last couple of starts but he had things working against him in those spots and thought he ran well while

chasing wide in his first dirt start for Gullo prior to that; can turn it around in this spot getting some class relief. T LOVES A FIGHT required a big class drop to get back to the winner’s circle last time, but he did well to get it done there after breaking slowly and racing four-wide around the track; back-classer has to keep it going in that direction as he steps up a bit but his good race makes him very tough here. SUMMER BOURBON showed surprising early speed off the Rudy re-claim last time before going evenly in the stretch behind front-running class-dropper Bavaro; doesn’t need the lead but there is a good trip coming in this race if he can get forward once again.

SEVENTH RACE

SHIMMERING MOON may have needed that one off the layoff last time when chasing from the outside in her first start for Linda Rice; has better races to get to as she makes her second start off the layoff and she projects to be more forward this time in a race without much pace. HARKNESS isn’t a winning-type with seven runnerup finishes from her first 15 career starts but she is a good fit with this field and she benefits from the return to sprinting here after getting into some traffic over a mile last time. NAPLES PRINCESS a closing sprinter up against projected dynamics in this race; flattened out late last time after getting a look at that race in the stretch, but she was off the layoff there and can do better with that one behind her.

EIGHTH RACE

ROCKIN EMMZY hasn’t done much running in her first two starts to date but she looks like a short price in the finale as she takes the class drop for Pletcher; speed she has shown in her first two starts expected to play well against a field like this. DAZZLE ME has switched to dirt for her last two starts and hasn’t Beyered out of the 20’s but thought she ran an okay race last time after getting outrun early and then progressing throughout the race before just missing 3rd; good post on the outside. WILD TYPE went favored off the claim for Rudy two starts back but hit the gate at the start and wound up chasing the pace while wide to no avail; drops again after getting in against a much better horse in the form of Dovey Lovey last time.