ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, LADY LOVE

FIRST RACE

BIG MAROON has three local works so he should be fully acclimated to here. One of four sibs beat winners. It seems this gelding didn’t like two turns at Remington but he still faced tougher there. Butler often rides for Padilla. This gelding should like an elongated sprint. KATCHUP TIZ went favored off the layoff but only beat two home. That is fine as most runners improve second time this dirt. Jockey/trainer combo is a nice 29%. We always like to see a recent work. PAYNT GUNNER did go favored in his first two starts. He did beat over half the field home last out and was only 4 1/2 lengths back with a furlong to go before tiring. MISTER MIKEY has four of six sibs that beat winners. URBAN BUCKEYE has four of five sibs that beat winners.

SECOND RACE

WILD WIGGLIN JACK draws outside and that is often the place to be when sprinting on this dirt. He gets off the rail and has some tactical speed in a race with little pace. That sounds like another great trip for this gelding who just got a huge dose of confidence in his most recent. This gelding has done all of his winning locally and six furlongs seems to be his favorite distance. DOWN IN THE HOLLER ran a Beyer top only two back. His most recent was his Tampa debut and he broke 9th of 11 which did not help matters. Second time this jockey and dirt can only help. DEBDURITE seems to have a penchant for less at 18-1-5-3. He races one level above his conditions. With that said, he is feeling better of late and has some tactical speed.

THIRD RACE

BELLA BE PROUD has twice as many wins as places and that right there is a plus. She just won when second time on this dirt and did so in fine fashion. She draws well today and goes for a barn that is 21% with their repeating winners. Form cycle is another plus as this mare goes third off the layoff. It wasn’t that long ago that this mare was facing open claimers at Churchill. DESCARADO has never missed the board on this dirt. Her recent figs are solid and those Thistle running lines help the price. Horse for course has a nice inside post and some tactical speed to help with her trip. ALL GOOD TIMES did next to nothing two back on the turf so that was obvious a prep for future dirt routes. Her most recent was solid and now she goes second time this dirt. Her lack of speed and this outside post are a small knock.

FOURTH RACE

SWEET SOUL MUSIC is just feeing better of late not counting his most recent on this sod. He pushed the pace and simply tired in a race that he probably needed. We know that he likes this sod as he is a multiple winner on it. The class drop can’t hurt and there is a jockey upgrade to Gallardo who is 31% with team OConnell. CELEBRITY WARRIOR is a deep closer that gets decent race flow and is often a great price. He has hit the exacta on this sod in 7 of 12 starts. We like that he goes second off the layoff. If we thought today’s pace was a little quicker then we would have put this one on top. NILE PRINCE is as consistent as they come. His figs just figure while his most recent was again solid. This post hurts a tad but the price might entice.

FIFTH RACE

SHIMMYSHIMMY SHAKE was stuck on the rail in her debut but still ran quite nicely when finishing third. Three of four sibs won with two having beat winners (80K and 229K). She draws much better today and has three local works. PRAYING FOR A WIN might offer some value as her Hawthorne Beyers were not so hot. All

3 sibs beat winners and she has 3 local works. We wouldn’t be surprised if she showed some speed in this spot. This barn is 23% with their maiden claimers. SUN SUMMERS is by a 9% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). Her dam went 19-4-4-2 for 157K. The rail start going seven panels is bad enough but it being her first start is even worse. The good news is that recent sharp work which was 2nd best of 32. ANTHONY’S GIRL is by a 1 for 10 debut sire. Her dam went 17-0-5-1 for 11K. Both sibs won but only once each. CASPERS RUN is by a 12% debut sire. Her dam was un-raced and this is her first foal. CLASSIC RUN is by a 1 for 13 debut sire. Her dam went 2-0-1-0 for 3K and this is her first foal.

SIXTH RACE

LADY LOVE is a horse for course that is better now than when last seen here. Her works are perfect and they include a local run. If all stay in, then race flow is fine. Win rider returns in Martinez. This filly seems to always run well when fresh. BELLA PIERINA has some good upside. We love that Delaware turf win only two back. It is obvious that this filly responds well to Shannon Uske. This horse has good turf breeding. She won her debut even though it was at seven furlongs and she did so on the local dirt. We think she is much better on the grass. A good price rounds out the appeal. WISH UPON is working quite well and goes for a barn that shows a flat bet profit on the grass. The long layoff is scary but team Terranova is 31% off this type of layoff (4 for 13).

SEVENTH RACE

HONEY LOVE draws poorly for this distance but there ends the negatives. She easily won her debut even though she was sent off at 29-1. Then she tried the boys here and actually improved her Beyer speed figure. Her even running style should bode well at today’s seven panels. SUZIE’SSTEPPINOUT exits the same race as our top pick. Both go second time this dirt and both return to their own sex. The blinkers go ON which is fine and all but adding first Lasix is much better. This barn is 21% when adding the diuretic. DISTINCTLY BLUE has two wins and that is one more than anyone else. She has good speed and has twice recorded a Beyer of 50 or better. Is her speed the best speed? This inside post that isn’t the rail can’t hurt.

EIGHTH RACE

STRAIGHT UP SMARTY is feeling good. We really like her most recent which was her first on this grass. She was stuck in the 10 hole and ran a solid second. She should improve second time this sod while today’s post is much better. Race flow is fine. NICK’S ROSE is a horse for course that is stuck outside. Not sure what happened two and three back but she does put races together for the first time since June. This barn is 23% second off this type of layoff. We love 3YO horses late in the year. WEATHER GIRL just likes to win in general. She is a multiple winner on this sod. She has a recent work and for a barn that we really like (Arterburn).

NINTH RACE

MAME catches a race with little pace so her tactical speed gives her a big advantage especially for a restricted race like this. She adds a full furlong today and that should help theft chances if connections do indeed send. She has a recent work. This barn is 22% with repeating winners. What if she is a horse for course before everyone knows it? SAILOR MOON did run well last out when first on this dirt. She might be a tad quicker than our top pick if she wasn’t stuck on the rail. She is very consistent with her recent figs. We don’t see a recent work though.

COUNTRY LINEDANCER draws the attack post for this tricky distance. She won’t be on the front end but then again she won’t be that far back either. She drops a notch in class and has solid figs for the most part. ANIMAUXSELLE has a penchant for less but is still in our supers.

TENTH RACE

FLEDERMAUS just ran a Beyer top and did so when first on this sod. He did try tougher early in his career down at Gulfstream. We like that he rallied between runners as that is a tough place for a maiden. This barn shows a flat bet profit on the grass. The post is just right. DELTA

LEVY ran OK on the grass three and four back in Chicago. Perhaps non firm sods in his last two were an excuse. He does seem to relish this sod. This post hurts a tad. ANOTHER SOFTBALL has a penchant for less but then again that was down South. This is his first on this grass. He has some tactical speed and goes for a 12% turf barn. ARTIE’S BEST is by a 11% debut sire and a 12% debut turf sire. His dam went 7-4-1-0 for 124K (3-2-0-0 on the grass for 52K). Of 8 sibs to race, 5 won. Two of six sibs won on the grass. Lots and lots of works but two turns on the grass for your debut is extremely difficult. FACO D is by a 11% debut sire and a 16% debut turf sire. His dam went 3-0-0-0 and all were on the turf. This is her first foal to race.

Main track: One mile, oval. Distance from last turn to finish line: 990 Feet. Turf course: Seven Furlongs

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 17% ■ Exacta wagering: 20.5% ■ Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4, Super Hi 5 wagering: 18% ■ Pick 5: 15% ■ All other wagers: 25.9%