ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, TRAPALANDA

FIRST RACE

First post, 12:30 p.m. SHINING THROUGH improved a ton last out when he switched to grass. The son of Malibu Moon saved ground, angled out and finished willingly for third in a relatively fast turf route at Del Mar. The race already produced two next-out winners; ‘THROUGH should be tough if he reproduces his last start. However, SPEAKEROFTHEHOUSE may offer greater wagering value following a better-than-looked fifth last out. He lost position on the far turn, was shuffled back, hit traffic trying to re-rally, finished well and galloped out with interest past the wire. He stretches out to a longer distance, switches jockeys, and could slip through the pari-mutuel cracks. MYSTICAL MOON set a slow pace and finished a creditable third in his debut at one mile. He can only improve. This is the first maiden turf route of the winter for 2yos of 2018 (3yos of 2019). This maiden race was won last year by River Boyne; in January 2015 this maiden race was won by subsequent graded stakes winner Metaboss.

SECOND RACE

Only five entered this maiden-50 mile; the race offers minimal wagering value. FROZEN MONEY finished third of five in his debut vs. maiden-80 sprinters, he drops in class and stretches to a route. He might be best of a soft bunch. Stablemates KNIGHT’S CROSS and SOONER BETTER, trained by Keith Desormeaux, both have a look. KNIGHT’S CROSS drops from maiden specialweight, goes turf to dirt, and takes off blinkers. Two starts back he finished only a half-length behind race-1 contender Speakerofthehouse. SOONER BETTER misfired as the favorite last out in a similar spot, but returned to work well at San Luis Rey Downs. ROCKANDAHARDPLACE figures as a contender based on his okay efforts two and three back.

THIRD RACE

If he reproduces his summer form while dropping in class for his first start in nearly two months, OLDER BROTHER can win this claiming race for 3yos with a front-running/pace-pressing trip. Or, he might be a bust. His two recent starts were disappointments; his maiden win and Cal-bred allowance runner-up in summer would be good enough. Perhaps he can wake up on the drop to $12.5k claiming. If not, DON’T STALK ME is the right horse. He is a four-time winner from 10 starts; his recent form is solid. Although he missed by a neck last time as the odds-on favorite, he finished five clear of third and earned the field’s highest last-start figure. He will roll late; looks like there is enough speed to flatter his closing style. Upset candidate OUR TIGER’S BOY is back with 3yos after finishing nowhere vs. older last out. He also adds blinkers and returns to the racetrack on which he ran the best race of his career.

FOURTH RACE

Maiden 2yos sprint on the hill; also-eligible ENCANTA is a better filly than her last-start misfire as the favorite. She got tangled up, sustained leg cuts, and basically misfired. That Del Mar race was one mile; her runner-up finish two back on this downhill course would be good enough. Her recent works suggest she can return to form over a course she likes. Furthermore, first-time Joel Rosario will be an interesting angle to monitor. Rosario plans to ride the winter meet here. SHUT IT UP and OBJECTIVE finished fourth and third, respectively, in promising career debuts at five furlongs. SHUT IT UP was not asked for speed (his stablemate Sold It wired the field), saved ground, finished with run inside and did not allow her rival to get past on the gallop-out. Suspect that SHUT IT UP might have more speed than she showed first out; she should improve with a race under her belt. OBJECTIVE flew late and finished third in her promising debut. She should move up with a race under her belt. RATHER NOSY finished third in both starts; her new rider is the top European jockey Andrea Atzeni. TO THE MORNING adds Lasix, moves to turf and could improve at a big price.

FIFTH RACE

Low-level sprinters ($12.5k claiming, N2L) go six furlongs; last-out maiden-20 winner ONE UPPER is the tepid choice. She has speed to be forwardly placed; her figures compare favorably to par for this class. The knock is the filly she beat by a length last time returned to finish fifth at evenmoney. The in-form filly PEACHY, runner-up last out racing one mile, adds blinkers and goes route to sprint. COPPER COWGIRL also shortens to a sprint. She finished a long way back last time, at big odds, but has run races that put her somewhere in the hunt. Bomber potential only. DESIRED EDGE and WARM IT UP also have run races that put them in the picture. This race really is a scramble.

SIXTH RACE

Also-eligible CLEOPATRA’S STRIKE, previously based at Woodbine, makes his California debut in a competitive N2X turf route. Trainer Phil D’Amato has done well with recent acquisitions; the presence of Rosario suggests positive intent. ‘STRIKE won this condition last time at WO while racing for the optional $60k claim tag. If he draws in, he can score an off-the-pace upset. If not, then D’Amato’s other starter is an obvious contender. YA GOTTA WANNA was in slightly over his head last time in a G2. He finished sixth; perhaps he could have finished third if he did not have to steady in deep stretch. The gelding drops to N2X, he is 3 for 6 on the Santa Anita turf course. MAJESTIC EAGLE shortens to a more appropriate distance after finding 11 furlongs too far. He could be loose on the lead, he might not stop. STARTING BLOC is in peak form. He will finish. WHOOP WHOOP might be ranked too low by this handicapper. He finished a close third last time at this condition, and shortens from 11 furlongs to 9. Good field, good race.

SEVENTH RACE

Steep dropper ARISTOCRATIC should be formidable in this N3L claiming sprint. He is quick enough to make the lead, gets in light with five-pound apprentice Heriberto Figueroa, and runs for a stable that wins often with class droppers. Wagering value is not likely. MO SOUL also drops to the N3L level for the first time, and figures for a frontrunning or pace-pressing trip. He sharpened his speed with a 34.80-second bullet work last weekend SHORT OF EZ adds speed and is another dropper. His best races were at Los Alamitos, however. JUMP THE TRACKS could get a great set-up for his closing style. First or second in five straight, he will roll late. Perhaps should have ranked him higher than fourth preference.

EIGHTH RACE

FLYING SCOTSMAN is expected to scratch. SPARKY VILLE has improved since he was gelded in September; his third-place finish last out in a sprint stakes was better than it looks on paper. He was fanned wide and finished evenly. Two turns and grass are new, but his pedigree (Candy Ride, Storm Cat mare) suggests a mile on turf will be fine. RIJEKA is an established two-turn turf colt that could inherit favoritism with the defection of the top choice. RIJEKA won a maiden race around two turns, and placed in two turf stakes this fall including a creditable runner-up finish last out. Yet another first-time Rosario. MORE ICE is improving, having won two of his last three.

NINTH RACE

A murky pace scenario benefits TRAPALANDA in this $8k claiming mile. The gelding figures to be forwardly placed in a race without much early speed. First start since early last month, proven over this racetrack, all systems go. DUKES UP is a legitimate late threat, and provides coverage from off the pace if the top choice backs up. DUKES UP has won four of seven at Santa Anita, he returns from a six-week freshening for a productive jockey-trainer combination. Aaron Gryder and Steve Miyadi are 7-for-21 since September 2017. KENZOU’S RHYTHM will be rolling late, while droppers BROKEN UP and GIO’S CALLING are good enough, but dropping suspiciously in class.