ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, EXCLUSIVE ZIP

FIRST RACE

PARTICULARITY back with more suitable company after being overmatched in last two starts. Was necked by Empire Power on 11/1, a horse who’d be around 3-5 in this spot in his current form. TRIO OF CHAMPIONS well spotted for this tag at the N3L level and perhaps the controlling speed although a bit suspect having finished far back in all four previous local starts. ELLAS MY LOVE takes another drop in class off dismal showing in Woodbine finale but did run perhaps the race of his life over this track last March.

SECOND RACE

EXCLUSIVE ZIP the day’s best easily handled this same kind last month at GPW, hard to look past wheeling right back vs. similarly conditioned foes. OFF DUTY returns to his favorite track after tossing a poor effort at GPW. In very dangerous hands off the claim. HOOKUP well spotted for this tag trying open claimers for the first time after winning N3L conditions for twice the price. Should come running late on turn back to this distance.

THIRD RACE

HEATED ELEMENT broke slow, rushed up, raced within contention for a half before fading badly in a well graded $50K maiden claimer and getting a massive amount of class relief for third start of his form cycle. Might prove best of a weak lot. MYSTERY WITNESS the logical choice and likely heavy favorite off the claim for this barn. Gets blinkers, strictly one to beat at a short price. SOVEREIGN WARRIOR a new face to a weak category. Looks like he only recently joined this barn following steady string of works at PM.

FOURTH RACE

The potential for a speed duel between the two favorites could give EXTRAVAGANT KID the right set up to spring mild upset in first of 6 stakes on the card. Won a pair of stakes over the course a year ago before encountering traffic issues in this very race last winter. VISION PERFECT in top form at the present time but must avoid potential conflict with Pay Any Price. OAK BLUFFS another late running threat if things get headed up front. May not have quite as much traffic to deal with today as he did in the Claiming Crown when running too good to lose. Pay Any Price has won four straight locally but against far softer competition than he encounters in this spot but always hard to ignore at this distance and especially on this course.

FIFTH RACE

MR. KISSES looks like the controlling speed returning to the sight of 7 of his 9 career wins.

Might not look back. GRIFF facing tall order off the long layoff but has looked very good prepping for his return since arriving locally. MORNING BUZZ against the grain of track bias on opening day. Should be forwardly placed throughout.

SIXTH RACE

GIRLS KNOW BEST a shaky edge in an extremely wide open spot. Just hoping she comes away running and gets a chance to relax some on the front end. MORTICIA got shuffled back early over at Tampa, did not run her best race but seems to really relish this course. Looking for bounce back effort with Tyler up. JUST TALKIN has been freshened since Saratoga and another who has yet to run a poor one locally.

SEVENTH RACE

This certainly not the toughest of MSW races we’ll see here this winter so have to defer to the new face and string along with first timer LAST JUDGMENT, a full to six time winner Congratulate Me sporting top connections. BEAU TRACE 2nd of a dozen in local bow, third could be the charm if preferred one should falter. ART G IS BACK has shown some improvement in the morning of late, might fit with this bunch.

EIGHTH RACE

TOO COOL TO DANCE a lightly raced but promising looking turf filly who certainly didn’t get the best of trips or use her speed to its best advantage in Spa finale. Lures Irad, well drawn inside, might handle the jump to stakes company for these connections. ANDINA DEL SUR a graded stakes winner last winter and with a couple of good runs over this course early at 3. Hard to ignore at her best. AMERICAN FROLIC left with a bit too much to do in the Cellars Shiraz but back home where she posted a pair of victories including an overnight stakes during the summer.

NINTH RACE

HOLY HELENA the class of the field and addition of Lasix could get her going back in the right direction as should return to turf and drop to un-graded company. Lots to like for a filly who was a G3 winner over the course. TRICKY ESCAPE starts at the 6th different track in her last 6 starts and aside from being overmatched in Flower Bowl continues to hold her form extremely one. Proven stayer also gets her favorite rider back for the occasion. DANCELAND continues to hold her form well, owns a win on the track and another who should have no problem handling the distance.

TENTH RACE

Hard one to figure with so few in here having tried the distance. SOGLIO a proven stayer against quality opposition and certainly has held his form well all season long. Figures forwardly placed from the outset. His stable mate CULLUM ROAD comes off another big effort in N Y finale and in peak form at the present time. NESSY was given a bit of a break after going off his best form this summer and fall but another proven stayer who classes up nicely with this group.